Even If Biden Drops Out, There Is No Plan
Getting Biden to quit is not actually the hard part (and getting him to drop out is, in fact, likely hard)
Things/people to watch:
1. Jill Biden.
2. Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, the Clintons, Jeffrey Katzenberg, Ron Klain.
3. Bidens’s fundraising.
4. Kamala Harris.
5. Democratic elected officials and donors saying on background and on the record that Biden can’t be the nominee.
6. The polls.
7. Josh Shapiro, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, (not Michelle Obama).
My apologies to those of you who could not get on the Zoom tonight.
Here it is, in full:
Here is the May 30th edition of the Wide World of News that I wrote:
So off went the Emperor in procession under his splendid canopy. Everyone in the streets and the windows said, "Oh, how fine are the Emperor's new clothes! Don't they fit him to perfection? And see his long train!" Nobody would confess that he couldn't see anything, for that would prove him either unfit for his position, or a fool. No costume the Emperor had worn before was ever such a complete success.
"But he hasn't got anything on," a little child said.
"Did you ever hear such innocent prattle?" said its father. And one person whispered to another what the child had said, "He hasn't anything on. A child says he hasn't anything on."
"But he hasn't got anything on!" the whole town cried out at last.
The Emperor shivered, for he suspected they were right. But he thought, "This procession has got to go on." So he walked more proudly than ever, as his noblemen held high the train that wasn't there at all.
-- “The Emperor’s New Clothes”
As we wait for the Trump verdict which could change everything, change nothing, or change a bit of something, it is time to talk about the situation where "no one believes, but everyone believes that everyone else believes.”
The anxiety in Democratic Party circles about the state of the presidential race is in the first instance driven primarily over concern about Donald Trump’s small but persistent leads in the battleground states.
Although an essential reading New York Times analysis piece by the paper’s polling guru rightly points out that Trump’s leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are wee enough to allow the incumbent a narrow, singular path to victory, most of the data and the coverage of the data are, indeed, freaking Democrats out.
There’s this Politico story about all the recent Biden efforts in Pennsylvania not seeming to move the needle much.
And now Virginia, with this reputable public poll, joins New Hampshire and Minnesota as a presumably Blue State in which the race is ostensibly tied, a horrible sign for the reelection prospects of Biden-Harris as of now.
Among elected Democrats, donors, and Clinton and Obama alum strategists, the second order concern is that neither Biden nor his campaign seems to have a game-changing new strategy or set of tactics, backed by a realistic theory of the case, to mount a comeback, the De Niro debacle adding to the fraught fretting.
But in some quarters of Biden World, however, there is another, related question that is growing in salience among Trump-loathing Democrats who have spent time with the president of late.
To put the matter both directly and carefully, some well-place sources see a recent physical and mental decline in Joe Biden that frightens them, that makes them uncertain of his capacity to get through the June debate and the rigors of the general election.
I have long summed up the political status of Biden’s apparent decline by saying it was neither as dire as the Republicans claim nor as limited as Democratic defenders have argued.
Polls of the public have consistently shown that more people, including Democrats, side with the Red perspective, choosing to go with their own eyes over White House spin that there is nothing to see here.
I’ve been tracking Joe Biden’s mental and physical decline since 2018, when I watched him do a public event promoting his book, at which his glassy-eyed, halting performance revealed a man deeply diminished from the one I had known and covered for years. The moment stunned me and made me a bit sad, and led me to believe that the days of his involvement in public life in any position of prominence were forever over.
Instead, he ran for president – and now he is doing it again.
What some Biden-loving Democrats have seen in the last forty-five days or so, up close with time spent directly with the president, is a man they barely recognize. Again, it is the glassy eyes, the odd complexion, the halting movements and speech, and the personality changes and occasional (or frequent…) absence of focus all-too-familiar to anyone who has watched a relative or friend age quite suddenly and dramatically and sadly right before their eyes.
To be sure, there are Biden defenders who spend time with him daily who will say that he is fine, that it is Trump who is diminished, that Biden, while, sure, walking differently, is right there mentally, dealing with the complexities of the domestic and foreign crises in his inbox like a pro at the top of his game.
Those folks might be well meaning. They might even think they are telling the truth.
Whatever the exact current state of Biden’s mental fitness for the job, whether it has, in fact, faded over the last several fortnights – and whether it will be in evidence during the debate and over the course of the general election in a way that hurts Biden’s chances of winning (and whether it gets demonstrably worse) – whatever happens with all that, I have some confidence that historians will someday write about the Iron Triangle of collaborators who worked together in a conspiracy of silence to limit the instances in which the emperor is exposed as, in fact, not wearing any clothes at all, at least on some days.
The Iron Triangle is made up of Biden aides, the Dominant Media, and Democratic allies, all of whom continue to work together, with few lapses, to minimize discussion and scrutiny of what is clearly a very perilous situation.
Up until now, I have dismissed out of hand the notion that Biden would be forced off of the ticket, barring death, extreme incapacitation, or a criminal conviction of his son Hunter.
Based on what I have heard of late, I have changed my view.
Now, please don’t overread into my new perspective.
Biden is still overwhelmingly likely to run for reelection; Biden still is in a position to be reelected; Biden, even diminished, is more right than wrong that at this point he represents the party’s best chance to keep Trump out of the Oval Office; and there are no circumstance under which Michelle Obama will be the Democrats’ standard bearer.
All of that is still true.
What has changed is there is now a greater chance that, one way or the other, Biden will not make it to November, mentally and politically.
As has been true throughout his presidency, depending on his level of rest and the vagaries of his condition, he still has good days and bad days, good moments and less good ones.
His last two State of the Union addresses were more than boffo enough, on their own, to give ample fodder to the Iron Triangle.
Yesterday’s full Biden speech in Philadelphia also seems fine:
But within that event, there are worrying moments of confusion, as always, captured and highlighted by the RNC.
After a brief period a few months ago where parts of the Iron Triangle fell down on the job, around the time David Ignatius and a few others argued publicly that Biden should consider not seeking another term, the conspiracy is back. The New York Times seems to have ended its brief, distinctive, and (actually) timid attempt to tell its readers what is actually going on. The rest of the Dominant Media continues to keep its collective eyes wide shut.
When Biden read his answer off text prepared by his staff at a press conference recently, something that I don’t recall happening in my history of covering such presidential events, the Dominant Media just pretended it didn’t happen.
If you want to see the Biden that some around him have seen of late, this videocaptures it pretty well.
Again, glassy eyed, seemingly confused, halting.
Now, I still believe the chances of Biden overperforming in the debate in June are better than 50-50, what with Ron Klain’s involvement; the former chief of staff has proven himself best in class at managing Biden’s time, rest, and preparation for big moments.
And any notion of Biden being replaced on the ticket would require his active involvement; there is no cabal that can, as in the Republican fantasy, “replace him” against his will.
There are also still the issues of Kamala Harris (who is not going anyone without a big internal fight and who would be impossible to sub out at the top of the ticket against her will if Biden were to depart) and of Jill Biden, who will spin for her husband and his acuity until the last dog dies, as she did yesterday on “The View.”
Any plan to ease Biden out with his agreement would likely involve the intense involvement of Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi and the creation of a pre-fab, pre-convention ticket with their backing, a massive undertaking with a 10 out of 10 degree of difficulty and also entailing massive risk, with the convention delegates, the public, the racial politics of the party, and the challenges of standing up a presidential campaign from a standing start. (Shapiro-Whitmer ‘24, anyone?)
Biden has to prepare for the debate with, among many other matters, Gaza burning, two trips to Europe, and the expected start of Hunter’s first criminal trial.
As I said, chances remain Joe Biden gets through the debate, is the nominee, is protected throughout the summer and fall by the Iron Triangle, and has a shot to be reelected.
But if the agitated, apprehensive, and anxious accounts of some of those around Joe Biden are to be believed, those chances are now lower than they were just a few months ago.
And, if that trend sustains, Biden’s poll standing and the peanut gallery carping of David Axelrod will no longer be the number one concern of those for whom the prospect of a Trump victory is a living nightmare.
If that does in fact happen, the Iron Triangle conspirators will not be the only ones who will have to answer to history.
To be continued…..