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Supporters remain convinced of his chances, and if Mr. Trump prevails he and they will likely point to the rallies as a saving grace.
“It will be a landslide,” said Wayne Rood, 59, who showed up five hours before a rally in Lansing, Mich., on Tuesday and still hadn’t secured a prime viewing spot. A cold rain fell but the exhaust from a generator powering a huge video screen kept him warm. “How many people are showing up at Biden rallies?” (Wall Street Journal)
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We are now in the 100-hour zone in which I am asked throughout the day to not only tell my inquisitors who is going to win the presidential election but by how much and at what precise date and time the winner shall be known to the world.
In other words, it is not enough at this point for me to assure them that Professor Plum will be the murderer; I also must guarantee that Plum will do the deed with a candlestick in the Conservatory.
As the renowned political theorist Yogi Berra has said, prediction is difficult, especially about the future. (Note: Although Berra is usually credited with the line, some historians believe Bob Shrum actually said it first.)
My answer between now and Tuesday is (sorry, eager inquisitors) unlikely to change: Joe Biden is the strong favorite to win, with the range of most likely outcomes in this order:
1. Solid Biden win.
2. Biden blowout.
3. Narrow Trump win.
As to when the outcome will be known, as I’ve written before: If Biden clearly and cleanly wins just one of the Significant 6 (FL, NC, GA, TX, IA, or OH), we will likely know the winner by midnight Tuesday.
If Donald Trump wins all 6, the outcome and timing of the outcome are as unpredictable as determining the best strategy to use for getting a Teddy from the claw machine.
Truth be known, if you take my latest reporting with campaigns, party committees, and strategists with experience in the battleground states and combine it with polling data and the body language of the campaigns and candidates, it leads to the conclusion that a Biden blowout might in fact be the most likely outcome.
If that happens, here is the, uhm, good news for an incumbent president who is a wee bit concerned at times with his image, reputation, and historical standing: Biden’s likely best-case scenario would not leave Trump as America’s biggest loser.
413 to 125 certainly sounds like an embarrassing (humiliating?) outcome for a man who says he leads the greatest political movement in the nation’s history.
Now, according to this website:
In presidential elections, a landslide election is generally agreed to be one in which the winning candidate secures at least 375 or 70 percent of the 538 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
413 > 375, so that Biden’s upper-limit result would apparently be a certified landslide.
But it wouldn’t match these:
1988: Republican George H.W. Bush won 426 electoral votes against Michael S. Dukakis, who received only 111.
1984: Republican Ronald Reagan won 525 electoral votes against Democrat Walter Mondale, who got only 13 electoral votes.
1980: Reagan won 489 electoral votes against Democrat Jimmy Carter, who got only 49 electoral votes.
1972: Republican Richard Nixon won 520 electoral votes against Democrat George S. McGovern, who got only 17 electoral votes.
1964: Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson got 486 electoral votes against Republican Barry M. Goldwater, who got only 52 electoral votes.
1956: Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower got 457 electoral votes against Democrat Adlai Stevenson, who got only 73 electoral votes.
1952: Eisenhower got 442 electoral votes against Stevenson, who got only 89 electoral votes.
1944: Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt got 432 electoral votes against Republican Thomas E. Dewey, who got only 99 electoral votes.
1940: Roosevelt got 449 electoral votes against Republican Wendell L. Wilkie, who got only 82 electoral votes.
1936: Roosevelt got 523 electoral votes against Republican Alfred M. Landon, who got only 8 electoral votes.
1932: Roosevelt got 472 electoral votes against Republican Herbert C. Hoover, who got only 59 electoral votes.
1928: Republican Herbert C. Hoover got 444 electoral votes against Democrat Alfred E. Smith, who got only 87 electoral votes.
1912: Democrat Woodrow Wilson got 435 electoral votes against Progressive Theodore Roosevelt, who got only 88 electoral votes.
Again, I’m not predicting a Biden landslide, and, as I’ve made clear recently, if several things flip Trump’s way (including the surprise march of a vast army of “hidden”/”shy” voters), we could see the president scratch and scramble his way to a narrow overtime victory.
But let’s say, for the sake of Saturday argument, that Biden wins in a shellacking rout.
What are the signs that that outcome is a real live possibility?
Let us list the ways.
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Bidens’ consistent massive national poll margins (which remain both consistent and massive).
Biden’s consistent very solid state poll margins (which largely remain both consistent and solid – with the occasional outlier).
The super duper high voter turnout (which is universally expected to be good for the Democrats).
The reappearance of the energized Democratic 2018 midterm coalition (young, non-white, exurban, urban, suburban, etc).
Trump’s loss of support with female, suburban, exurban, and older voters (that’s a lot of people in a lot of groups!).
The lack of polling growth for the third-party candidates Team Trump needed to do well to allow the president to win states with meager pluralities.
Trump’s failure to break through a poll ceiling that in many states remains in the mid-40s.
The overpowering paid media advantage held by Team Biden.
Trump’s failure to end the campaign with a consistent message or any discipline whatsoever.
Biden’s ability to end the campaign with the same twin messages with which he began his effort in March (Trump’s handling of the pandemic and Trump’s dividing and embarrassing the nation).
Biden has effectively run a campaign with a gauzy national message more centrist than the far left of the Democratic Party — while keeping the far left of the Democratic Party activated.
Biden has made the fewest gaffes per month than at any other point in his nearly 50-year career.
The re-rising pandemic (which a majority of the American people think Trump has mismanaged).
The prospect that the Democrats massive voter education efforts have led to by-mail and drop box ballots from the Blues having been filled out correctly at higher rates than is the norm, including and especially by first-time, anti-Trump voters.
The vulnerability Team Trump has to limits on Election Day in-person voting because of the pandemic and, potentially, bad weather.
The fizzling stock market (which has/had been the president’s rhetorical life raft).
The reality that, despite the endgame Hunter Biden effort, this election seems to be a wholly unwinnable up-or-down referendum on an incumbent with horrible job approval and fav/unfav numbers.
Biden is generally ahead (often by a lot) or roughly even on key attributes (handling the economy, handling race, handling the pandemic, handling health care, cares about people like you, etc).
Trump has lost more than 85% of the news cycles since June 1 (and the other 15% includes ties).
Facebook and Twitter throttled Trump’s long-standing social media plans.
Dominant Media’s overwhelming support for Biden (that the back of the envelope I hold in my hands says has been worth more than $25 billion).
There are no presidential battleground states with down ballot candidates or ballot measures that seem likely to give Trump a significant lift.
Thus: Colonel Mustard with a lead pipe in the Billiard Room.
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ESSENTIAL READING
* Politico:
Pennsylvania's elections chief pleaded with county leaders Friday to make sure they start counting mail-in ballots the morning of Election Day, rather than waiting until the next day to begin the crucial tally.
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* The Wall Street Journal’s deeply ambivalent lead editorial on Trump vs. Biden:
There’s no reason to think Mr. Trump’s governance would change in a second term. His disruption worked in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, but he has returned to the same playbook this year when the public is in a different frame of mind. Americans want calm realism on Covid. For all of his cunning and marketing flair, he has missed this change in the national mood. By focusing so much on himself, he has helped Mr. Biden make the election a referendum on the incumbent rather than a choice….
If Mr. Trump does lose, and takes a Republican Senate down with him, the cause will not be weak Republicans, incompetent campaign staff, or even the relentless partisanship of the press. Joe Biden and the Democrats couldn’t make Mr. Trump the third incumbent in a century to be fired after a single term. Only Donald Trump could do that.
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* The Washington Post on Republican efforts to challenge cast ballots; if Trump wins the Significant 6, this matter will become the story of our lives.
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THE STATES THAT WILL PICK THE PRESIDENT - by Brian P. Nadeau
Arizona
* VP Pence touts Trump 'greatest economy' telling crowd '...we are going to do it again,' hits Biden agenda, stresses GOP down ballot voting importance. (Arizona Daily Star)
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Georgia
* President Trump holding 'Make America Great Again Victory Rally' in Rome, as Sen. Kamala Harris also visits Peach State Sunday. (WSAV NBC3)
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Florida
* Joining many others, Sunshine State election officials stress importance of dropping-off ballots versus mailing. (WPTV NBC5)
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Iowa
* Des Moines Area Rapid Transit offering free rides Tuesday while rideshare companies LYFT, Uber giving passengers 50% off polling place trips. (Des Moines Register)
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Maine
* Vacationland in-person early voting ends as returned ballot total rises. (WMTW ABC8)
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Michigan
* Biden campaign featuring Barack Obama, makes Detroit, Flint stops Saturday. (The Detroit News)
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Nebraska
* Douglas County Election Comm. experiences power outage, asks voters to come back Saturday, adding 4-hour extension. (Omaha World-Herald)
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New Hampshire
* State AG issues 17-page Election Day guidance memo to officials addressing same-day registration, results reporting, voter suppression, firearms, absentee ballot processing.
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Nevada
* Silver State Dems. return 2X mail-in ballots vs. GOPers with latter outpacing in-person voting. (KRNV NBC4)
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North Carolina
* Trump campaigning in Tarheel State Sunday night & Monday morning. (WXII NBC12)
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Ohio
* Long lines, airplane-flown, graphic street side anti-abortion banners/signs inundate Franklin County elections office heading into final early voting days. (WOSU 89.7 NPR News)
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Pennsylvania
* Actor Bradley Cooper releases 2nd streaming video urging Pennsylvanians to return ballots in-person by 8PM Nov. 3rd. (KYT-TV CBS3)
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Texas
* Sen. Kamala Harris in Fort Worth tells supporters '...no time to let up on the pedal...' (The Texas Tribune)
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Wisconsin
* Kenosha County early voting extremely close to meeting 2016’s 60.6% total registered turnout. (Kenosha News)
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TOP STORIES – by Brian P. Nadeau
Sports: NBA wants Dec. 22nd ’20-21 season start, notifies teams 10-player practices may begin.
Business: Cruise ship stocks rise as CDC replaces 'No-Sail' with 'Conditional Sailing' order, effective through Nov. 1st, 2021.
Entertainment: Season 2 of super popular awesome Force-filled 'The Mandalorian' arrives on Disney+.