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Before Joe Biden’s debate collapse, the order of possible outcomes in the American presidential election, from most likely to least likely was this:
1. Trump narrow win.
2. Biden narrow win.
3. Trump easy win.
4. Biden easy win.
On the day Biden yielded the presidential nomination to Harris, the order was this, again, most likely to least likely:
1. Trump easy win.
2. Trump narrow win.
3. Biden narrow win.
4. Biden easy win.
“Easy win” is defined as winning at least five of the seven battleground states.
Today, based on my reporting and analysis, this is the order:
1. Harris narrow win.
2. (tie) Harris easy win.
2. Trump narrow win.
4. Trump easy win.
When Biden was still running, his only chance of winning was following the model used by Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama – overcome a low incumbent approval rating by defining the opposition as unacceptable in the eyes of enough swing voters in swing states, while energizing the base.
Ironically, Trump, as a non-incumbent, can now only win with the same roadmap.
In other words, like Joe Biden, Trump needs enough voters to compare him to the (negatively defined) alternative, rather than to the Almighty.
In other, other words: Trump can’t win an up-or-down referendum (Do you want Trump to be president for four more years?); he can only win if Harris is defined for enough voters as an incompetent, unqualifed, unelectable San Francisco radical.
The main thing Trump has going for him is that, up until a few weeks ago (!) that is precisely how large swaths of both the public and the Dominant Media viewed Harris.
So the foundation is there – just as it was there against Bob Dole (out of touch, mean), John Kerry (effete flip flopper), and Mitt Romney (Gordon Gekko in funny underwear).
But there are reasons to believe that this playbook will not work for Trump against Harris.
Here are all the steps that have to occur for that textbook plan to be executed:
1. Harris has to go into a press conference or interview unprepared.
2. Harris has to mess up in that press encounter.
3. Team Harris has to be slow to react to whatever problem occurs.
4. Trump himself has to be disciplined in taking advantage of the moment.
5. Harris and her team have to be unprepared for and in denial about the existential danger of the Trump attack (This will never work…. Voters won’t buy it…).
6. The Dominant Media has to cover this back and forth in a way that validates or, at least, conveyer belts the charges.
7. Harris has to be so overwhelmed that she is not be able to launch a counter attack against Trump to turn the page on the attack.
Given how much time is on the clock; given that Team Harris’ comms folks are skilled, aware of recent American campaign history, and tough as year-old salmon jerky; given that Trump typically exhibits the discipline of me with a bag of licorice; and given that the Dominant Media has one goal and one goal only for the next three months – given all that, I rate the odds of Donald Trump seeing all seven steps take place as verging towards de minimis.
As for defining Harris, this Financial Times poll result should put the Fear of Lee Atwater in the folks at Mar-a-Lago a lot more than Saturday’s New York Times polls did:
The Big Three/Blue Wall/Great Lake states are all in play, with Harris holding the edge in Michigan and Wisconsin for a variety of reasons (including recent voting patterns) and Pennsylvania less clear.
The status of Omaha, which Harris will need, along with the Big Three, if she is shut out of the Sunbelters, is also unclear.
The biggest question now is which of the four Sunbelt states will truly be in play come the fall.
Arizona and Georgia look better for Harris than North Carolina and Nevada, but they all have elements that give Democrats, with ample resources, hope:
1. Georgia: Obama Coalition of the Ascendant; abortion rights; two Democratic Senators; big African-American population; Trump-Kemp tension.
2. Arizona: Obama Coalition of the Ascendant; abortion rights; Kari Lake.
3. North Carolina: Obama Coalition of the Ascendant, abortion rights; gubernatorial race.
4. Nevada: Obama Coalition of the Ascendant; abortion rights; the Culinary Union; Harry Reid muscle memory; maybe the Senate race.
Even leaving aside the possibility of something (else) unexpected happening to shake up the race, it would be foolish to count Trump out now.
I have smart sources putting odds on the race that give Trump anywhere from a 65% chance to a 25% chance.
Even the low end of that is higher than most gave him in 2016.
The view from Mar-a-Lago is much more bullish: Trump’s fundraising is good still; all Harris has done is consolidate the Democratic base; the undecided voters are more likely to go for Trump; the return of lawfare in the fall and the relentless and clear bias of the media will fire up the Red team; she can’t run from her record forever; the Sunbelt states will all hold firm for Trump, leaving Harris with just one path to 270.
And that Trump, come September, will show the discipline he needs in order to win, will stop talking about crowd size and will instead focus like a laser beam on the Biden-Harris record.
Trump showed discipline in the 2016 endgame. And/but lot has happened since then, including Trump is eight years older.
Even some Trump supporters say that their man can only win if Harris shows weakness and Trump shows discipline.
At this point, based on what I know, I would be surprised if Harris is as bad in a press conference or interview as Republicans are counting on her being.
And I would be surprised if Trump showed the necessary discipline to take advantage of any slip ups.
Which is why, barring any game changing opposition research, cataclysmic world events, or another disasterous Democratic debate, Harris now has the advantage.
But it’s August, folks.
To be continued…..