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TWO THINGS YOU SHOULD KNOW
This guy Bob DiBuono does as good a Trump imitation as you will find and you should follow Yoko on Twitter:
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TWO SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT ON THREE KEY MATTERS
1. IS TRUMP THE FRONTRUNNER FOR THE NOMINATION OR NOT?
YES
For: Polling.
Against: Trajectory.
NO
For: The media says so.
Against: DeSantis’ alleged, possible glass jaw.
The Associated Press curtain raises the #FITN two-stop day leaning into skepticism, as does the Concord Monitor, and Reuters:
The State, in Columbia, SC, is more split between skepticism and something else, but the tie is broken by the legendary Mr. Tompkins:
“I do think his support is obviously not near the levels it was the last time around,” said Warren Tompkins, a veteran GOP strategist in the state. “And I don’t think he’s nearly as strong in South Carolina as he once was.”
Also, in that paper, the door is opened to a lot of back and forth with Mar-a-Lago about who is actually endorsing and who is just showing up to be respectful and take a looky-look:
Many of the elected Republican membership have said they had other previous commitments on Saturday, such as family engagements and won’t be in attendance. Many members say they’re waiting to see who else gets in the race before picking a candidate to back. Tompkins, for his part, quipped that in the last week alone, he’s heard of roughly 25 GOP and conservative leaders say privately that they didn’t plan to attend, almost all of whom would have been guaranteed to show up at a Trump rally in 2020.
House Speaker Murrell Smith’s office said the speaker will attend with his family, but had no further comment.
Senate President Thomas Alexander, R-Oconee, said he plans to attend, but he is still working out his schedule. He said his attendance was out of respect for the former president.
State Treasurer Curtis Loftis also plans to attend, his office confirmed….
State Sen. Penry Gustafson, R-Kershaw, confirmed she would be attending Trump’s event. In her 2020 run where she flipped a seat held by a Democrat, her campaign included Trump’s name and picture on her billboards.
“I appreciate the work he did as president. I liked him as president. I supported him. I voted for him,” Gustafson said. “I would like the opportunity to shake his hand and thank him and I am interested to hear what he has to say, because this is not a rally on Saturday. I’m curious, so why not?”
Gustafson said Trump’s event will be a smaller gathering, which will include a meeting with invited lawmakers ahead of a public portion. But she wouldn’t say whether she will support the former president’s campaign in the primary.
“I am not endorsing anyone until there’s a Republican nominee,” Gustafson said.
For many lawmakers the idea of driving back to the state capitol building for a weekend event was not appealing. Lawmakers were in session for three days, which included the governor’s Wednesday night State of the State address.
“We get politics hard for three days and it’s hard work and we all got a job back home and family back home,” said state Sen. Greg Hembree, R-Horry. “So it would be unusual. I cannot remember the last time I came up here on the weekend.”
Hembree said he has no plan to back a candidate in the presidential race in 2024, saying he would focus on his senate reelection campaign.
The New York Times is also mixed (“He remains the clear front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, yet the solidity of his support seems increasingly in doubt.”), and/but puts its finger on something key that is clearly going on – Team Trump is trying to make the former president’s campaign about, to paraphrase Bill Clinton ’92, the voters’ tomorrows and not Trump’s yesterdays:
Over the past six weeks on his social media platform, Truth Social, Mr. Trump has been posting videos about his policy positions, including plans to protect Social Security and Medicare and ban Chinese nationals from owning U.S. farmland or telecommunications, energy, technology or medical supply companies. The videos, in which the former president speaks directly to the camera, are aimed at reassuring supporters that he’s focused on topics other than his 2020 defeat, an issue that flopped with midterm voters.
Will Trump’s remarks today be about grievance or hope and change?
We will know by bedtime. And this is arguably the only Trump question that matters now.
Finally, summing it all up, Matthew Continetti’s essential reading column leans way more into “Trump is the frontrunner” than the other coverage and (spoiler alert) Mr. Continetti is correct:
Trump's rivals in both the Democratic and Republican parties are repeating the mistakes they made in the run-up to the 2016 election. The Democrats assume that there is no way for Trump to become president, while Republicans believe he will fade from the scene. Their failure to learn from history has made it possible not only for Trump to win the GOP nomination for the third straight time, but to pull another inside straight in the Electoral College and return to the White House. For decades, Trump has said that the political class is corrupt, insular, and incompetent, and that Republican leaders lack guts. Washington is doing its best to prove him right….
The presidential campaign is just beginning. No one knows what lies ahead. The Trump rebound may soon pass and won't come again. There's a sleeper candidate or two out there who will make this race interesting.
For now, though, Democrats and Republicans are gambling that they can behave in 2024 just like they did in 2016, but produce a different result.
You willing to bet?
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2. IS THE BIDEN DOCUMENT THING A CONSPIRACY OR A CLERICAL ERROR?
CONSPIRACY
For: The White House is acting odd and the president is mostly silent.
Against: Biden would be risking his presidency and reputation on a lie that would almost certainly be exposed ultimately.
CLERICAL ERROR
For: Happens all the time.
Against: The Senate-era documents are a tell.
NBC News suggests Joe Biden might have a notetaking (and notebook) issue that is like his old pal Bob Graham’s, albeit slightly less obsessive.
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3. IS THE DEBT CEILING GOING TO BE A DISASTER OR A DISASTER AVERTED?
DISASTER
For: The MAGA-infused House conference.
Against: Never happened before.
DISASTER AVERTED
For: Some combination of Mitch McConnell, the White House, and sensible House Republicans will meet the moment at the last moment.
Against: There is literally no pact that works politically and substantively for both Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy.
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ESSENTIAL READING
The Justice Department has asked the Federal Election Commission to hold off on any enforcement action against George Santos, the Republican congressman from New York who lied about key aspects of his biography, as prosecutors conduct a parallel criminal probe, according to two people familiar with the request.
The request, which came from the Justice Department’s Public Integrity Section, is the clearest sign to date that federal prosecutors are examining Santos’s campaign finances.
The request also asked that the FEC provide any relevant documents to the Justice Department, according to the knowledgeable people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.
HALPERIN SAYS: I continue to see indictment as the only route to falling action in 2023.