Lots of Republicans want to stop Donald Trump from being the party’s presidential nominee.
But how?
The answer has been sitting right in front of everyone all this time.
Easily the most likely scenario to dethrone the heavy favorite is for Ron DeSantis to beat Trump in Iowa and New Hampshire.
If that happens, history suggests that King Kong will hear the death gong.
Now, history also suggests two other things:
1. It’s very tough to win both of the kickoff states in an open nomination fight in either party.
2. Winning just one of the two contests would almost certainly not be enough to knock Trump out.
And, make no mistake, Trump is not particularly weak in either the Hawkeye or Granite States.
Still, with those caveats in place, it is now clear that you can put aside national polls, donor griping, the congressional endorsement game, South Carolina scenarios, the potential of Nikki Haley or Tim Scott to be the Third, and pretty much everything else.
It is right now pretty close to a binary situation.
If DeSantis beats Trump in Iowa and New Hampshire, DeSantis will almost certainly be the nominee.
If Trump wins either one (or both) contests, it is likely he gallops more easily than in 2016 to renomination (and 2016 was actually pretty easy for Trump, really).
Which is why Saturday’s dueling Trump/DeSantis Iowa campaign stops could someday end up as fodder for the opening chapter of a book about the 2024 campaign. So reporters on the ground today should take good notes, including as much color as they can gather.
Team DeSantis has been clear that it sees more Trump weakness among Republican voters in the pair of first-in-the-nation states than exists nationally.
The DeSantisians smartly unfurled a bunch of impressive Iowa state legislator endorsements on Friday.
The DeSantis Super PAC, with many experienced Iowa hands involved, is already engaged in extensive grassroots and direct voter contact activity on the ground, counting on the state’s sophisticated voters (as in New Hampshire….) to care more about electability than folks in other locales.
National conservative groups and donors are sniffing around, looking for an opportunity to take Trump out in the first two states.
Now, to be sure, as I said, if the Sunshine State topper can win only Iowa but not New Hampshire, he probably will fall short. No Iowa caucus winner in an open contest has gone on to be the party’s nominee since 2000. It is almost unheard of to win both.
But for DeSantis, it is first things first in first in the nation. He has to position to win Iowa, which is why today is so important.
The Tallahassee high command has teed this visit up well.
First, check out the boffo Des Moines Register coverage of those endorsements:
Amidst the many print curtain-raising pieces about today’s rival events, look at all the opportunities that DeSantis has built in to shine in the type of activities that Iowans expect and which give him a chance to show his heart.
DeSantis is doing two good-sized events while Trump is doing one big one (although expect at least one other stop along the way for the former POTUS…).
Note what the Washington Post says about the schedule:
DeSantis will start Saturday at a picnic in Sioux Center, Iowa, hosted by Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa). Prominent Republicans from Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and Lt. Gov. Adam Gregg to Sen. Joni Ernst and state Attorney General Brenna Bird are expected to attend.
Then the Florida governor will zip across the state to Cedar Rapids, where he is headlining a regional fundraiser for the Iowa GOP. Kauffman, the party chair, will be asking him questions and said he’s eager to get personal with the governor — who some Republicans have criticized as scripted or standoffish.
“I know we’ve been told to give time for him to interact,” Kaufmann said, adding that as an interviewer he has a “reputation for bringing out some real human moments in these folks.”
Kaufmann is right – he has brought out the emotion in some past candidate colloquies. If he does it here, it could be seminal.
There’s also this from the Post:
DeSantis’s ability to engage up-close with voters and go off-script will be under intense scrutiny as he mingles with top Iowa officials Saturday at a picnic, where he’s also expected to take questions from reporters.
Questions from reporters??? That could be very interesting….
It’s also what normal presidential candidates do in Iowa.
Per CNN:
On Saturday, DeSantis will test his Midwest retail politics at Republican Rep. Randy Feenstra’s annual family picnic in the northwestern city of Sioux Center, the most conservative corner of the state. After DeSantis speaks, he and Feenstra and their wives are expected to mingle and grill food for the crowd.
Mingle and grill food? That could be very interesting.
It’s also what normal presidential candidates do in Iowa.
There’s no doubt that the Super PAC’s mechanics and negative ads are an essential part of any DeSantis plan to win the caucuses. But so is, especially, the performance of the candidate. How well and how hard will he work at it?
Per a new New York Times story about the early days struggles of DeSantis, there is this:
Changes are afoot. Mr. DeSantis is building a strong Iowa operation. He has been calling influential Republicans in Iowa and is rolling out a large slate of state legislator endorsements before a weekend trip there.
“He definitely indicated that if he gets in, he will work exceptionally hard — nothing will be below him,” said Bob Vander Plaats, an influential Iowa evangelical leader whom Mr. DeSantis hosted recently for a meal at the governor’s mansion. “I think he understands — I emphasized that Iowa’s a retail politics state. You need to shake people’s hands, look them in the eye.”
So Mr. Iowa says Mr. DeSantis gets the joke and knows what he needs to do.
And/but the Times story also says this:
The governor and his team have had internal conversations acknowledging the need for him to engage in the basics of political courtship: small talk, handshaking, eye contact.
Hard to imagine a candidate upsetting the heavy frontrunner if Godzilla is two or three weeks away from getting into the race and he is still discussing those kinds of basics….
It is also the case that Team Trump and its candidate aren’t just sitting back and watching their Florida rival just sneak off with Iowa.
First, per the Associated Press, there will be a contrast between the human-scale events of DeSantis and the massive show of force of King Kong:
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump will share the spotlight in Iowa on Saturday, providing a chance to sway influential conservative activists and contrast their campaign styles in Republicans’ leadoff voting state….
DeSantis made his first visit to Iowa in March, promoting his memoir at events that drew more than 1,000 people in Davenport and Des Moines. Although DeSantis shook hands along the rope line near the stage after the events, he didn’t have a lot of interaction with voters. This time, he can expect a crush of introductions to influential caucus activists in a more conversational setting who will be taking his measure for the first time.
More than 700 people are expected to attend the Sioux Center fundraising event for Rep. Randy Feenstra at Dean Classic Car Museum, as well as dozens of news reporters from around the country. Later, DeSantis plans to headline a state party fundraiser in Cedar Rapids that’s expected to draw about 300 influential eastern Iowa Republicans.
Trump, by contrast, is headlining a rally expected to draw several thousand people to an outdoor amphitheater in Des Moines’ Water Works Park on Saturday evening.
Although Trump aides said the Des Moines event was in the works before DeSantis’ plans were made public, he and his team have long seen the governor as his only serious challenger. They hope a large rally of Trump supporters Saturday fuels comparisons to the scale of their respective events.
Second, unlike in 2016, Trump understands the importance of organizing in the caucuses. The Washington Post:
Saturday marks Trump’s second trip to Iowa since announcing his presidential bid in November, and advisers told CNN the focus is on educating voters about caucusing and voter outreach. Trump has recorded at least one video that will air during the rally explaining the caucus process and encouraging Iowans to learn about it. His team has already gone through the data collected from dozens of events Trump has held in the state since entering the presidential fray in 2015 and has plans to reach out to ensure that these Trump supporters are registered to vote and still behind the former president….
Third, Trump apparently has his own local endorsements in the hopper:
Ahead of the trip, Never Back Down announced that 37 Iowa state lawmakers were endorsing DeSantis, a show of force that included several people in party leadership. Among those supporting DeSantis are state Senate President Amy Sinclair and state House Majority Leader Matt Windschitl, who are seen as young conservative leaders from rural Iowa.
Shortly after the super PAC’s announcement, a source familiar with the Trump campaign’s plans said the Trump team would unveil the backing of nearly 150 Iowa county leaders and grassroots activists for the former president.
And, finally, as Trump demonstrated in 2016, he knows how to dismember his competition on Iowa soil.
Again the Post:
The former president has also attacked DeSantis relentlessly, deploying nicknames, calling him disloyal and seeking to link him to GOP establishment figures. In a video posted Friday to Truth Social, Trump said DeSantis “needs a personality transplant.”
So, in the end, Donald Trump’s quest for the nomination – and Ron DeSantis’ longish-shot efforts to wrest the prize away -- likely all either begin or end in Iowa.
Which is why today is potentially the start of something big.
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Warming up for Saturday’s showdown, DeSantis was seeing if his act would play well in Peoria, with a Friday night speech to an Illinois GOP event, which got big coverage in the local paper:
Also, the paper did a sidebar with fun facts about the Guv Called RDS, including (watch Trump on this soon – or, at least, when he thinks it necessary):
Here is Politico’s write up of Peoria.
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ESSENTIAL READING
* Ross Douthat on DeSantis, Trump, and the media:
[T]he most basic lesson to be drawn by Republican politicians from watching Trump’s town hall is the importance, for any would-be Trumpian successor, of demonstrating that you too can engage with the mainstream press and come away a winner.
This is the core of Vivek Ramaswamy’s presidential strategy so far, which has lifted him to nearly Mike Pence-ian levels of support in primary polls in part because of his willingness to argue with Chuck Todd or Don Lemon, not just rattle off talking points on Hannity.
But it’s the opposite of the DeSantis method, which has been to stiff-arm the mainstream media (with a side of mockery from his friends and allies on Twitter). That’s fine for the governor of a rightward-trending state trying to get things done locally and build support with conservative activists. But it’s not what Republican voters actually seem to want from their national champions. They want the show, the battle, the drama. And you can’t really own the libs, in the end, if you won’t even take their questions.
HALPERIN SAYS: Yup.
ROME (AP) — Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy arrived in Rome on Saturday for talks with Italian officials and Pope Francis, who has said the Vatican has launched a behind-the-scenes initiative to try to end the war launched last year by Russia.
“Today in Rome,″ Zelenskyy tweeted. ”I’m meeting with President of Italy Sergio Mattarella, Prime Minister of Italy @GiorgiaMeloni and the Pope @Pontifex. An important visit for approaching victory of Ukraine! ”
* The New York Times, with what seems like a big deal, caveats notwithstanding:
Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive against Russia has overshadowed talk of a potential negotiated settlement in the conflict, but some U.S. and European officials say the next phase of the war could create momentum for diplomacy….
President Biden’s aides have been exploring potential endgames, trying to identify an outcome that could be acceptable to both Kyiv and Moscow if real peace talks started, U.S. officials say.
* Both the Wall Street Journal and New York Times have fresh articles this morning pegged to Saturday’s Joe Biden commencement address at Howard University’s ceremony.
President Biden faces a problem in turning out the young voters he needs to clinch a second White House term because many are worried about his age and performance in office as his campaign gets under way.
With graduation season unfolding around the country, interviews with students at colleges and universities, some of whom supported Mr. Biden in 2020, found frustration with his tenure. Mr. Biden, 80, is the oldest president in U.S. history.
While most voters interviewed by The Wall Street Journal had concerns about Donald Trump winning another term, some said they wanted to explore other options in the Democratic primary and might not show up on Election Day if Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are on the ticket.
Ari Smith, 22, a recent graduate living in Tempe, Ariz., said the presidential election was “like choosing which poison is safer to drink.”
When Ethan Hayes, a senior at Howard University, talks to his mother about politics, they don’t always see eye to eye.
During the 2020 presidential campaign, Mr. Hayes was skeptical of Joseph R. Biden Jr. because of his record on criminal justice. His mother, Lindi Hayes, who said she grew up in a “fairly conservative” Christian household, felt differently.
“Well, look at the alternative,” Ms. Hayes would tell her son, warning against four more years of President Donald J. Trump.
“I don’t want to look at the alternative,” Mr. Hayes would reply. “I want to look at someone brand-new.”
The mother-son split mirrors a broader generational divide among Black voters on President Biden, who needs their support as he runs for re-election. Although Black voters were a key constituency that sent Mr. Biden to the White House in 2020, polls show that Black voters under 30 have far less enthusiasm for Mr. Biden than their elders do.
HALPERIN SAYS: If Joe Biden loses to Donald Trump, it will almost certainly be in part because turnout among young votes is not what it needs to be, including young voters of color.
* The Washington Post popped this horrifying exclusive early on Saturday:
Jack Teixeira, dressed in camouflage fatigues, his finger wrapped around the trigger of a semiautomatic rifle, faced the camera and spoke as though reciting an oath.
“Jews scam, n-----s rape, and I mag dump.”
Teixeira raised his weapon, aimed at an unseen target and fired 10 times in rapid succession, emptying the magazine of bullets.
The six-second video, taken at a gun range near Teixeira’s home in Massachusetts, affords a brief but illuminating glimpse into the offline world of the 21-year-old National Guard member, who stands accused of leaking a trove of classified military intelligence on the group-chat platform Discord.
Previously unpublished videos and chat logs reviewed by The Washington Post, as well as interviews with several of Teixeira’s close friends, suggest that he was readying for what he imagined would be a violent struggle against a legion of perceived adversaries — including Blacks, political liberals, Jews, gay and transgender people — who would make life intolerable for the kind of person Teixeira professed to be: an Orthodox Christian, politically conservative and ready to defend, if not the government of the United States, a set of ideals on which he imagined it was founded.
*
Yahoo News has this feel good story:
Even before the name "Natasha Obama" was announced as one of the hundreds of students graduating from USC's Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences on Friday morning, buzz was building about some familiar faces on campus.
Photos of her parents — the 44th president and former first lady — sitting behind cap-and-gown-clad students at Allyson Felix Field were posted on social media, while students at the ceremony texted friends in other colleges about the high-profile guests.
Kim Demu ended up sitting just a section over from Sasha's parents, Barack and Michelle, and older sister Malia — but with more than a dozen U.S. Secret Service agents in between them. Still, she was thrilled to see the family she long revered, and snapped multiple photos.
“I knew [Sasha Obama] transferred from [University of] Michigan to here, but I had no idea she was graduating in this class with my niece," Demu said. "Very exciting!"
Sasha Obama, 21, beamed as she crossed the stage to commemorate her new sociology degree, as her sister and parents applauded in the audience. The announcement of her name was met with almost universal cheers from the crowd.
* Warriors and Knicks are vanquished:
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