SIX THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT THE DEBT CEILING TALKS
1. Note the inclusion (this time…) of the Veep in today’s meeting, per the White House:
At 3:00 PM ET, the Vice President will attend the President’s meeting with Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Leader Chuck Schumer, Leader Mitch McConnell, and Leader Hakeem Jeffries at the White House. This meeting in the Oval Office will have an in-house pool spray at the top.
2. Unless there is a sudden and extraordinary creation of respect and trust created between Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy, there won’t be a deal this week or anytime soon.
3. The absence of a clear X Date is one of the biggest stumbling blocks to getting a deal, as that is the main hope for a forcing mechanism (the president’s Asia trip and some belated/meh calls from business leaders to government officials are not enough).
4. Even if a deal is reached between the leaders, history suggests that such a pact is not a sure thing to pass both chambers, as the Associated Press understatedly reports:
Details of a potential budget deal remain politically daunting, and it’s not at all clear they go far enough to satisfy McCarthy’s hard-right faction in the House or would be acceptable to a sizable number of Democrats whose votes would almost certainly be needed to secure any final deal.
This point is SO key, especially in the populist and polarized era in which we live. If there were a Biden-McCarthy deal, much of the media would treat the occasion as one of conclusive white smoke emanating from the White House. But that would not necessarily be the end of the drama.
Soak in this pair of essential reading Politico stories on how the Republicans and the progressives might not be there with the necessary votes for a leadership agreement.
5. Which is why there is going to need to be enough trust and respect between Biden and McCarthy to get a bicameral, bipartisan joint whip operation going for final passage(s)…for a deal that does not even exist yet….
6. Nothing is decided until everything is decided.
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SEVEN THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT THE DURHAM REPORT
1. This episode is probably most useful for understanding the Blue-Red gap among pols, on Twitter, in the Dominant Media, and at the grassroots.
2. The left wants this all to go away and thinks (and/or pretends to think) this is a nothing burger.
3. The right believes this is a cause, effect, and big symbolic confirmation of the corruption and existence of the Deep State, of major media bias, and of the enduring rally-around-Trump-as-the-enemy-of-the-Deep-State dynamic.
4. Evidence of (3): Even Ron DeSantis was (briefly) on Team Trump in the wake of the report’s release.
5. A close read of the major news stories about the report (the kind of read Red elites will do) shows bias you either plainly see – or you don’t. Or you pretend not to. The main themes: play it down, strawmen, create false or misleading measuring sticks!
* Politico:
Durham’s investigation into the origins of that probe resulted in few criminal charges, and the release of his report is unlikely to offset his high-profile failures in court.
Mr. Trump once predicted that Mr. Durham’s probe would reveal the “crime of the century,” a conspiracy among intelligence officials and law enforcement to undermine his 2016 presidential campaign. The probe’s findings have fallen far short of that expectation.
The report, coming almost four years to the day since Durham’s assignment began, will probably be derided by Democrats as the end of a partisan boondoggle. Republicans will have to wrestle with a much-touted investigation that has cost taxpayers more than $6.5 million and didn’t send a single person to jail, even though Trump once predicted that Durham would uncover the “crime of the century.”
Mr. Durham’s 306-page report revealed little substantial new information about the inquiry, known as Crossfire Hurricane, and it failed to produce the kinds of blockbuster revelations accusing the bureau of politically motivated misconduct that former President Donald J. Trump and his allies suggested Mr. Durham would uncover.
[I]t will give fodder to Trump supporters who have long denounced the Russia investigation, as well as Trump opponents who say the Durham team’s meager court record shows their probe was a politically motivated farce.
6. Are you Team Red or Team Blue? If you are Team Red, when you see these Ric Grenell tweets, you know exactly what he is referring to, you are outraged, and you know the Dominant Media doesn’t give a rip:
7. Also, if you are on Team Red, you see these two New York Post headlines and say, “The Deep State is at it again – and of course the Washington Post and New York Times aren’t covering these stories.”
If you are on Team Blue, you have no idea what these stories are about – or you are looking to Ian Sams to bury them.
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FOUR THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MIKE PENCE’S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN
1. You have to hand it to Team Pence, which conceived of and executed a plan to punch way above the former Veep’s poll numbers to get major and favorable PAC launch stories in the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, CBS News, and the Associated Press.
2. This Hoosier has been underestimated before.
3. This Hoosier is in desperate need of the virtuous cycle: better press clips --> more donors --> better press clips --> higher poll numbers --> better press clips --> more donors --> etc.
4. Mike Pence is less a longshot to be The Third Man than you think he is – and more of a longshot to be The Third Man than Karen Pence thinks he is.
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THREE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT RANDY RAINBOW
1. He is a genius.
2. He is a great video producer.
3. He has a new Ron DeSantis video.
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