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****
There is no other news you need to focus on right now besides what happened and what happens next with the House Republicans.
If you didn’t watch the House floor straight through from 10pm until about 2am ET, you missed out on some unique American history.
There has never been a spectacle and series of moments quite like what happened over those four hours – and I’m sorry to say that, if you weren’t watching, you can never recapture or experience what many were fortunate enough to see live.
Even if you found the full video online and watched it all, it wouldn’t be the same.
Sort of like watching a recording of a basketball game of which you already know the final score – but you have to add in that it is sort of basketball, but also sort of (all of the sudden without warning) Quidditch but also sort of cricket, with an overlay of the rules of Canadian rugby.
Which is to say, it was a moving tableau of intensity, unpredictability, and hold-your-breath/where-is-this-going-next drama, with no rules or rhyme.
The two most extraordinary moments were the McCarthy-Gaetz colloquy and when we appeared to be on the precipice of Republican-on-Republican violence.
Here is the Washington Post’s strong and/but antiseptic summary of some of the key moments:
[W]hen the House reconvened late Friday night, four of the original 20 holdouts continued to vote against McCarthy, while two of them — Lauren Boebert (Colo.) and Matt Gaetz (Fla.) — voted present.
That left McCarthy short just one vote of the speakership — the closest he has been all week.
McCarthy allies swarmed Gaetz — who cast his vote last — on the floor and tried to persuade the Florida Republican to change his vote, with party-mate Mike Rogers of Alabama storming into the huddle and seeming on the brink of violence. Rogers then retreated to a cloakroom off the floor.
Democrats and Republicans alike appeared stunned by the turn of events, and the chamber was nearly silent as people processed what was going on.
McCarthy’s speaker bid appeared to be stymied once again, as lawmakers began voting to adjourn until Monday. But just moments before that vote was ending, McCarthy signaled he had a deal, quickly changing his own vote not to adjourn.
Again, my sympathies to those of you who were asleep, at a Brooklyn rave, or otherwise occupied. This was one for the ages, the unshackled C-SPAN cameras providing a steady stream of animated moments, history happening before the bleary eyes of those Americans paying attention.
****
So, two broad areas of inquiry:
1. How did McCarthy come back from the political dead?
2. What happens next?
On (1), my sources (including many pro-McCarthy folks) were consistent in saying as the week went on that he was very unlikely to get the majority, that the combination of the intractability of the rebels and the embarrassing spectacle would before too long lead some of his 200 supporters to privately tell him he had to give someone else a chance to build enough votes to win.
Politico has a good tick tock of the negotiations with the rebels and the other back and forth. Trust me: there are MANY more of these reconstruction stories coming in your Sunday newspapers (and beyond).
I think the most important factor in the comeback that I did not see coming was the failure of anyone (mostly meaning Steve Scalise) to demonstrate the ability to get a majority. The Politico story says:
One GOP lawmaker approached a group of holdout conservatives on Thursday and asked if they would consider a deal with Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) as speaker and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) as majority leader, two House Republicans told POLITICO. But those McCarthy dissenters rebuffed the deal, some saying they wanted Jordan, with at least one other supporting Donalds (R-Fla.).
Those Scalise-centric forays came as members allied with the Louisianan also called other members, taking their temperatures on elevating McCarthy’s No. 2 if he couldn’t get the votes, according to three different House Republicans. And the outreach wasn’t just focused on Scalise: Other House Republicans were also calling on behalf of colleagues seen as potential consensus candidates.
For weeks, Team McCarthy said no one besides Their Kevin could get the job done. It seemed like a talking point and/but it turned out to be true — and vital to his survival.
The critical moment, I think, of the week, was when the rebels made it clear that Scalise was not acceptable to them. Once that happened, Team McCarthy bought themselves enough time with their 200 or so House Conference backers to work on a deal with the rebels. “You can’t beat someone with no one” and so without a workable Scalise plan or any other name from any wing of the party who was willing to take the job and was even theoretically able to get to 218ish, it was back to the original plan: McCarthy or bust (and bust wasn’t an option).
So holding the 200 was key, as were, obviously, two other elements:
1. Lowering the temperature and intra-Conference hostilities long enough to strike a deal.
2. Finally getting a large group of the rebels to say what the price of their votes was.
The deal is interesting. It isn’t all codified, so we don’t know everything that was agreed to or what will actually matter.
This take matches my own:
As best as we can tell this morning, the deal actually has a lot in it that is populist and pro-transparency. Those could be good things.
The Gang of 500 likes strong Speakers of the House, but a lot of the American people do not, so talk that the deal is some big threat to our Republic will likely turn out to be overblown.
No doubt McCarthy has yielded a lot, more than any speaker in our lifetimes has ever forked over for the job.
But OTWT* what that means.
There are five big questions now for our shared future with McCarthy finally wielding the gavel.
1. What does the deal actually mean?
2. What does this say about Donald Trump’s true level of influence in the party generally and in the House wing specifically?
3. Who from Schumer World and Biden World will deal with McCarthy World going forward (and, 3A, will those conversations be fruitful?)?
4. Does the McCarthy spin – that the experience of the last week will make the Conference more united and, thus, easier to work with to produce majority votes for priority legislation — turn out to be true?
5. Everything about how the debt ceiling gets handled.
Just as no one knew how the McCarthy quest would turn out, no one this morning knows the answers to any of those five questions.
But I’m working on it.
Have a great Saturday.
Those of you who stayed up with me: Pro tip: Take a nap.
Sorry for the typos; I’m tired!
****
* OTWT = “Only time will tell”