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Tomorrow is another day, sources say.
*****
Your talking points:
1. Leading conservative legal analysts now believe that Donald Trump is on a path to being indicted for obstruction of justice.
2. This is the most concrete, serious, and likely-to-be-made legal case against Trump that has existed since 2016.
3. Other charges related to the purloined documents could be made, but you should ignore those for the foreseeable future; from a political and legal point of view, this is about obstruction.
4. The odds that an indictment occurs before the midterms are very low.
5. Some of Trump’s lawyers appear to be in similar legal peril as well.
6. On the midterms, the fresh Wall Street Journal poll makes clear that the environment for Democrats has improved.
7. And/but Karl Rove says Democratic fortunes are being overstated by their party hacks and their press flacks, but/and he also suggests a Red wave as big as Clifford requires GOP candidates to effectively move the conversation away from Mar-a-Lago and to the contrast between the agendas of the two parties; between court developments, Trump social media posts, Justice Department nonstop “leaks,” and the Team Biden-Dominant Media alliance, “The Case of Donald Trump and the Purloined Documents” will almost certainly be at the top of the news every day until Thanksgiving (and likely beyond).
8. Also, abortion will get more coverage and take up more earned media space in midterm races than will the specifics of the Republican’s alternative policy agenda, in part because of the media’s pro-choice tendencies, in part because of the voter intensity connected to abortion, and in part because REPUBLICANS HAVE NO ALTERNATIVE POLICY AGENDA.
9. Peter Thiel, Rick Scott, Mitch McConnell, and Donald Trump walk into a bar for the midterms, and only two of them (at most) come out politically alive. If you were to rank the pairs in terms of acrimony from most to least, it would start like this (with the competition robust):
I. McConnell/Trump
II. McConnell/Scott
III. Thiel/McConnell
10. Based on the last 24 hours, it appears that John Fetterman’s actual health is potentially better than Dr. Oz’s political health.
11. The Biden speech is at 8pm ET; let’s see who takes it live.
****
ESSENTIAL READING/SUPPORTING MATERIAL
* Former prosecutor Andrew McCarthy in the New York Post, going from indictment skeptic to indictment enthusiast:
The court filing made by the Justice Department on Tuesday night, in response to Trump’s lawsuit seeking a special master to review materials seized by the FBI, indicates that prosecutors have amassed formidable evidence of obstruction. That’s a game-changer….
This is a serious obstruction case that appears as if it would not be difficult to prove. The Justice Department is under immense pressure from the Democratic base to indict Trump, and the jury pool in Washington, DC, where the government would file any indictment, is intensely anti-Trump. It is thus hard to imagine that Attorney General Merrick Garland will decide against filing charges.
* Former judge Andrew Napolitano in the Washington Times, going from indictment skeptic to indictment inevitablitist:
It gives me no joy to write this piece.
Even a cursory review of the redacted version of the affidavit submitted in support of the government’s application for a search warrant at the home of former President Donald Trump reveals that he will soon be indicted by a federal grand jury for three crimes: Removing and concealing national defense information (NDI), giving NDI to those not legally entitled to possess it, and obstruction of justice by failing to return NDI to those who are legally entitled to retrieve it….
Where does all this leave Mr. Trump? The short answer is: in hot water. The longer answer is: He is confronting yet again the federal law enforcement and intelligence communities for which he has rightly expressed such public disdain. He had valid points of expression during the Russia investigation. He has little ground upon which to stand today.
* The Wall Street Journal news story:
Some legal experts said the government’s filing late Tuesday suggested members of Mr. Trump’s legal team could face their own problems. “It’s hard to escape the conclusion that Trump’s attorneys are in serious danger of facing obstruction of justice charges,” said Jessica Levinson, a professor at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles, citing among other factors a detail in the filing that a lawyer specifically refused an investigator’s request to examine the storage room.
A person close to Mr. Trump said that concern was shared within the team. The former president this week added to his legal team former Florida Solicitor General Chris Kise, who is taking the lead beginning with Thursday’s hearing. “I think Chris is going to have to tell them they have their own jeopardy, so step aside,” the person said of other lawyers on the team.
Federal prosecutors are likely to wait until after the November election to announce any charges against Donald Trump, if they determine he broke laws, according to people familiar.
* The Wall Street Journal poll:
Democrats are entering the homestretch before November’s election in better shape than earlier this year, boosted by gains among independent voters, improved views of President Biden and higher voting enthusiasm among abortion-rights supporters, a Wall Street Journal poll shows.
Republicans have electoral fuel to tap into if they can keep the debate focused on the economy and what has been the highest inflation in four decades. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters say the economy isn’t good or poor—a larger share than in the last Journal survey, in March—and close to two-thirds say the pain of higher costs makes them more likely to cast a ballot….
The Democratic gains come from increased support among independents, women and younger voters. Black and Hispanic voters, who have traditionally favored Democrats heavily, are also more solidly supportive of the party than they were earlier this year.
* Karl Rove:
The GOP faces other challenges too, starting with the fact that since Aug. 8, the national political focus has been on the Mar-a-Lago search for classified documents. This is shifting the midterms from being a referendum on Mr. Biden’s failures to a comparison between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, which diminishes the Republican advantage. An Aug. 10 Politico/Morning Consult Poll found independents approved of the search by 47% to 33%. Those are voters Republican candidates must win to maximize GOP midterm victories. To do that they need to change the subject from Mar-a-Lago to a clear explanation of what they will do if elected.
We’ll see more twists and turns before November. Midterms historically benefit the party that doesn’t hold the White House, but the political environment that several months ago was significantly favorable to Republicans has become somewhat less so. Still, it’s hardly ideal for Democrats. If Republicans make the midterms a referendum on Mr. Biden, they’ll do well, but they have to finesse the documents controversy.
Congressional Republicans are losing ground in polls partly because of abortion but largely because the party out of power has no public self-definition.
* Politico’s rollicking interview with Rick Scott, which can be paraphrased as “FU, Mitch McConnell.”
* The Washington Post’s rollicking look at the tense Thiel-McConnell tete-a-tetes over the Ohio and Arizona Senate races, about which their level of disagreement is even deeper than this story suggests!
* The Washington Post’s global look at the Fetterman-Oz race is filled with meaning and nuggets.
*
Guy seems pretty with it in this clip.