There ain’t no sure things in life excerpt death, taxes, the impossibility of an NBA team coming back from down 0-3, and the New York Times publishing a daily package of at least four articles about one particular premium cable streaming program.
However, as a Wide World of News public service, please:
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF…
...the Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling/fiscal package ends up passing both chambers pretty easily.
The tell on the right: Stephen Moore, Kevin Hassett, and the Wall Street Journal ed board all were teed up in Tuesday morning papers to say “good enough” or more about the agreement.
The tell on the left: the quiet, mostly-not-bluffing confidence of the Whipper-in-Chief, whose crafty high command has Team Schumer and Team Jeffries fully on plan.
At this writing, Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis have yet to weigh in heavily against the pact, but even their possible opposition is unlikely to derail it.
Abide Halperin’s Seventh Rule of Washington: If AOC and MTG are both against a bill, it should pass and it will pass.
And/but Halperin’s Eight Rule of Washington potentially applies even more here: If AOC and MTG are both for a bill, it should pass and it will pass with overwhelming bipartisan support.
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...the Ukraine drama moves back front-and-center in the news.
The escalation of the air war on both sides, including additional strikes on Moscow; the looming need for Congress to support more funding; heating up of the U.S. presidential race; possible game changing moves by China and Israel; and the massive loss of Russian life – all suggest the slog could morph into either an escalation of the fighting or an escalation of the push for peace before Labor Day.
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...Ron DeSantis and the Stop Trump movement make Iowa the place to make a stand.
With the Sunshine State topper beginning a two-day trip in the Des Moines Metroplex today, backed by his Super PAC and with other friendly voices coalescing, it could turn out that the daunting data pushes Team DeSantis to the conclusion that the best and only way to stop the Trump Train is to derail the frontrunner in the first battle and hope all things flow from that victory.
In other words, it might be that the only way to kill the king is to kill him in Act I.
The conventional wisdom has long been that you can spend only so much money in Iowa before you reach diminishing returns. That dictum might well be tested in 2023 and early 2024.
What to watch for: How many days on the ground DeSantis spends (and how many of Iowa’s fabled 99 counties he hits); how much of a separate campaign schedule in the state Casey DeSantis does; which Iowa Republican elected officials and political influencers back the Florida governor; what national pols and interest groups come in for DeSantis to build caucus support; what new, shadowy Super PACs arise to spend there; how the national media builds up and shapes the caucus expectations game for the two board leaders; and how and how quickly Trump’s public polling lead there narrows.
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…Chris Christie gets more and more favorable Dominant Media coverage than any potential Third Man or Woman does in 2023.
All you need to do is read this morning’s new New York Times story about the expected launch of a fresh Super PAC poised to back the second presidential run of the man George W. Bush called “Big Boy” to foreshadow how he will be received.
The two clues:
1. The money paragraph framing his candidacy:
He will be coming into the 2024 race as the person with the most coherent case against Mr. Trump while arguing that the fight needs to be taken directly to the former president.
A lot of media catnip embedded in that one sentence!!!
2. The cast of characters reportedly involved in the Super PAC and campaign reads like a veritable Who’s Who of the Republican operatives (like Christie himself) who are among the Dominant Media’s favorites, for their savvy, their quotability, their accessibility, and their fidelity to a pre-Trump version of the GOP.
You might not recognize these names, but all of them know the Lauriol Plaza menu by heart: Brian Jones, William “Bill” Palatucci, Russ Schriefer, Brent Seaborn, Maria Comella, and Mike DuHaime,
Top priority for Team DeSantis: Who will play Christie in debate prep?
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…the Hunter Biden story moves front and center into the 2023/4 narrative before the family heads to Nantucket for Thanksgiving.
Read the latest excavation from Jonathan Turley on Hunter’s place in the Biden family; remember the resolution of the Justice Department probe is almost certainly coming soon (and will make news no matter what the outcome); and watch the action in the House investigation – and you can likely count on some climactic action (but not the FINAL climactic action) coming soon to a news frenzy near you.