SUPPORTING
Item: Please consider making a voluntary move to back my work on this newsletter.
WHAT THAT LOUDMOUTH WILL SAY ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: The only way to kick in is via a voluntary paid subscription:
WHAT YOU SHOULD SAY ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: If you like Halperin’s work, you can become a paid subscriber or make a contribution via any of the following methods in the generous amount of your choice:
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HOUSING
Item: A Politico race-by-race analysis says Republicans are still likely to take control of the House.
WHAT THAT LOUDMOUTH WILL SAY ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: There are too many races to track, so I just will check Nate Silver two or five times a day.
WHAT YOU SHOULD SAY ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: For all of the turnaround in the environment, it is still more likely as of now that Republicans take the majority comfortably than that Democrats keep the majority, with “comfortably” being net +18.
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SENATING
Item: A Politico race-by-race analysis says the Senate is a tossup.
WHAT THAT LOUDMOUTH WILL SAY ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: All you need to focus on is if the Republicans can win 3 out of 4 of Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
WHAT YOU SHOULD SAY ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: The determinative playing field is much larger than that.
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UNABORTING
Item #1: The Associated Press:
Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel acknowledged that the GOP must sharpen its message on abortion given the Democrats’ apparent momentum.
“We can’t allow them to control the narrative,” McDaniel said in an interview.
She emphasized Republican leaders’ record of supporting exceptions for abortion in cases of rape, incest and the life of the mother, sidestepping questions about candidates like Mastriano, Georgia Senate nominee Herschel Walker and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who oppose such exceptions.
“I’m not going to speak about every candidate and where they’re at,” McDaniel said. “But the past four Republican presidents since Roe believe in the exception, and that is where I think a lot of the American people are, according to polling. But they also believe in limitations, and Democrats have shown no inclination to have any limitation.”
Item #2: From a Washington Post story on how abortion is playing as a big issue to Democrats’ advantage from coast to coast:
Campaigns for [top-of-the-ticket Republican Pennsylvania candidates] Oz and Mastriano did not respond to requests for comment.
WHAT THAT LOUDMOUTH WILL SAY ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: It seems like the Republican strategy is to just say nothing about abortion and focus on crime, the border, and inflation.
WHAT YOU SHOULD SAY ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: Between the Dominant Media’s pro-abortion rights stance (watch the tilt of the debate questions), the coming wave of Blue paid media on the issue, and the inability of far too many Republican candidates to get on the right side of public opinion here, it seems like the GOP leadership (whoever that is!) is going to have to consider doing something dramatic on abortion – or risk losing the entire midterm cycle over it.
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POTUS-ING
Item: Democratic nominees for Senate in Wisconsin and governor in Pennsylvania skipped Labor Day events with Joe Biden, per the Washington Post.
WHAT THAT LOUDMOUTH WILL SAY ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: See! Despite Biden’s approval rating rise, he is still toxic to some of the party’s key candidates.
WHAT YOU SHOULD SAY ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: The White House would rather these candidates win than kowtow and the skippers this weekend and going forward rely on campaign data to make these calls – they wouldn’t skip if it weren’t in their political interest, so they will take the “hit.”
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EX-AND-FUTURE POTUSING
Item: TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP
WHAT THAT LOUDMOUTH WILL ASK ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: Will a lot of Republican candidates in Purple areas skip Trump rallies also?
WHAT YOU SHOULD SAY ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: Watch to see what roles the Obamas and Clintons play on the campaign trail this fall as well. Not to mention Sanders, Haley, Warren, Cotton, Cruz, Pompeo, Buttigieg, DeSantis, and Youngkin.
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SCHUMERING
Item: With the Senate back in town, Chuck Schumer has a lot of choices to make about what to vote on when before November, as per Politico.
WHAT THAT LOUDMOUTH WILL SAY ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: Schumer will do whatever is best for his Senate candidates.
WHAT YOU SHOULD SAY ON YOUR TUESDAY MORNING ZOOM: Schumer will do whatever is best for his Senate candidates – and for Brooklyn.
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ESSENTIAL READING
The Russian Ministry of Defense is in the process of purchasing millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea for its ongoing fight in Ukraine, according to a newly downgraded U.S. intelligence finding.
A U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the intelligence determination, said Monday that the fact Russia is turning to the isolated state of North Korea demonstrates that “the Russian military continues to suffer from severe supply shortages in Ukraine, due in part to export controls and sanctions.”