10 WAYS TO COVER/WATCH/ANALYZE THE IOWA CAUCUSES LIKE AN *AMATEUR*
Note well...that says "like an AMATEUR"
1. Think you know where the Republican Hawkeye State contest stands as of this week before the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, by J. Ann Seltzer, comes out (late on Saturday night, if past is prologue).
2. Think you know what the parameters are of the all-important expectations game before that Iowa Poll comes out.
3. Think the campaigns care about the results of the Iowa Poll because they don’t know where the race stands (they pretty much do) – rather than because they know the Iowa Poll historically plays a mammoth (sometimes determinative) role in generating (or killing) momentum in the final 32 hours (or so).
4. Think you can tell early on Monday night how Nikki Haley will do overall in the state based on the live cable news coverage of “random” caucuses, caucuses that are chosen by networks for live coverage because they are (a) big and (b) near Des Moines (and thus, really, the only hugely pro-Haley caucus locations in the state); it would be like thinking you can tell how Joe Biden is going to do in the general election in Pennsylvania by looking at returns from Philadelphia.
5. Think the post-result spin wars between Team Trump (The biggest margin of victory by far in a modern contested Republican Iowa caucus…) versus Teams Not Trump (More than half/nearly half of Republicans who caucused Monday night rejected Donald Trump) will determine who wins the expectations game (when it will, in fact, be determined by five people on X, four cable news anchors, three pundits, two Des Moines Register headline writers, and me).
6. Think you can ignore the semiotic significance of where Nikki Haley delivers her caucus night “victory” speech from.
7. Think you should not watch closely how well conceived, written, delivered, and covered the money soundbites are by Trump, Haley, and DeSantis in their caucus night speeches.
8. Think DeSantis will definitely get out immediately if he finishes third.
9. Think the messages, timing, locations, and performance of the very first Haley and Trump events in New Hampshire are not important.
10. Think you shouldn’t spend part of your Monday night with me and my colleagues on 2WAY.
Speaking of which….don’t forget our upcoming events:
This afternoon, 3pm ET: Join me for a conversation about 2WAY, why we started it, how it will work, and how you can be a part of the discussion.
Bonus coverage: We will start this episode today with a discussion about the latest in Iowa and the presidential race, including this breathtaking pro-Nikki Haley TV ad that just went on the air in Iowa, linking Ron DeSantis to Donald Trump. Who’s your daddy, indeed!
See you at 3pm ET, no RSVP required.
Sunday, 6pm ET: A session on the final Iowa Poll looking at the caucuses, with pollsters J. Ann Selzer, Celinda Lake, and Emily Ekins. ZOOM LINK COMING SOON
Monday: Special programming into the evening with the latest from Iowa and what it means. DETAILS AND ZOOM LINK COMING SOON