A DeSantis Good Enough to Beat Trump
The way to an Iowan's vote is through various forms of pizza....
It is a pretty quiet Sunday in the Wide World of News.
Happy Mother’s Day to my mom and all the mothers across the planet. All y’all do good work.
I’ve got some essential reading/viewing for you below, but there isn’t a lot.
Do keep your eyes on the fiscal talks going on in DC, where the outcome options range from a surprise Biden-McCarthy grand bargain as early as in the next 72 hours to a breakdown that leads to default. Yes, truly, there is that much uncertainty on this front.
The Trump-DeSantis Iowa showdown was disrupted by the tornado threats that caused the cancellation of Trump’s trip in its entirety (although he did place a phone call to a Polk County couple of super supporters, which was captured on video). And Team Trump continues to do its best to mock and bracket its rival, with an emphasis on trying to push the meme and theme that the Sunshine State topper is weird, awkward, and not ready for prime time, as in this video and here:
But, really, Saturday was a day filled with signs of the nature and capacities of Team DeSantis, including a lot of strengths.
Stipulating that even the most seasoned political reporter has no idea how actual Iowa caucus goers received Saturday’s visit, here is what the governor of the free state of Florida had on offer that bodes well for his chances:
* He proved he could mix and mingle, meet and great, grip and grin, all without wearing a tie or jacket.
* His entourage, complete with private plane and security team, feels big and presidential.
* His well-funded Super PAC, avec a new bus, is masterminded by experienced operatives, who understand the level of coordination that is possible under the law, and how they can support the cause, including with visibility and voter information acquisition.
* The meta candidate himself and his squad showed an aggressiveness and nimbleness by adding an impromptu barbeque joint stop in the evening, right near where the cancelled Trump rally was supposed to have taken place, with obvious symbolic punch.
* Although the state’s Republican elected royalty is unlikely to endorse in the presidential race, DeSantis got the imprimatur of a lot of them, including Governor Reynolds, appearing with him throughout the day, suggesting implicit backing.
* Many of his state legislative endorsers were in tow, on message, and very Iowa (in a good way!).
* Signs abounded of both organic and smartly generated grassroots support/energy.
* The First Lady of Florida, Casey DeSantis was her usual not-at-all-secret weapon, speaking briefly and humanizing well beyond the norm.
* The media played up the notion, propagated by prominent pols-as-pundits, that it’s early, anything can happen, etc., as in this bit from NBC News:
Despite national polls showing Trump leading the field, Iowa GOP Party Chair Jeff Kaufmann expressed doubt that potential caucus-goers have made up their minds, saying they take their jobs too seriously as the first-in-the-nation vetters of presidential candidates.
“I don’t know that Iowa voters would allow themselves to lock anything in this early, I don’t think so,” Kaufmann said. “That belies the nature of the beast.”
At the same time, a clear dynamic has taken hold in the race here that reflects the national frame: Trump, seeking his third consecutive GOP nomination, is the favorite, and DeSantis is well ahead of the pack of rivals.
"I think if the caucus was held today, Trump would be the favorite to win based on his legion of loyal followers," said Will Rogers, a former chairman of the Polk County Republican Party. "That being said, I see a lot of interest growing in DeSantis and wouldn't be surprised if his polling moves him within striking distance of Trump by the end of the year."
* Although the press pines for the direct attacks to come, DeSantis has down the main message (oblique for now and/but unmistakable) that will likely serve as the frame for how he will take on the frontrunner, with all the qualitative and quantitative evidence making it clear that a very high percentage of Republican voters (and independents who can vote in GOP contests) don’t want to risk either a Biden reelection fueled by Trump Fatigue or four more years of Trump being hounded by Democrats if he did win.
Here's what DeSantis said in his main speech:
Governing is not about entertaining. Governing is not about building a brand or talking on social media and virtue signaling. It’s ultimately about winning and producing results….
We must reject the culture of losing that has impacted our party in recent years. The time for excuses is over….
If we get distracted, if we focus the election on the past or on other side issues, then I think the Democrats are going to beat us again.
Again, that is what the data shows is the most likely way to beat Trump. DeSantis is laying the groundwork for that message, which, someday, will become more explicit and might even be played out on a debate stage.
Now, if you want to boil down the strong aspects of the DeSantises day into three paragraphs, here it is, from the Des Moines Register’s generous write up:
Later, he stopped to join a smaller group of supporters and interested Republicans at the Sioux Center Pizza Ranch, where plates of fried chicken and pizza sat mostly untouched as the crowd mingled with the governor, clamoring for selfies and autographs.
Appearing with his wife, DeSantis spoke briefly to the crowd, saying their family is looking forward to the Iowa State Fair. He also praised another Iowa culinary favorite, Casey’s breakfast pizza.
“These gas stations, that’s a huge deal for us, because we’re stopping, we’re on the road,” DeSantis said. “... I’ll tell you, and I’m a very tough critic on the gas station. Casey’s is legit. That breakfast pizza is legit.”
Praising the Hawkeye State’s signature breakfast favorite, touting the fair, and making (mostly awkward) jokes, all from within the friendly confines of a Pizza Ranch, is a very strong moment. Iowans actually love awkward jokes.
Watch the video here.
Also, you should know that the governor of Florida has a level of enthusiasm for the Buc-ee’s chain that borders on the obsessive.
Exactly four members of the Gang of 500 even know what Buc-ee’s is, so I will be briefing on why Ron swoons, with a ten-slide PowerPoint, at Lauriol Plaza in a few hours.
All in all, Team DeSantis is – and should be – happy with how the day went.
Now, to be sure, there were some theater critics in the national media who had some complaints and negative review lines, including the stopwatches of Tom Beaumont and other scribes suggesting there wasn’t enough lingering with either voters or burgers and chops. Plus, there was very limited interactions with the reporters themselves.
Here's one line along these lines from the Associated Press:
But DeSantis devoted little time — at least compared with most of the GOP’s other White House contenders — for selfies or handshakes in Sioux Center, where more than 600 people had gathered to see him at an event billed as a family picnic for U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra.
And while none of it was Bernie Sanders eating a corndog or Michael Dukakis wearing a helmet, not every picture taken was necessarily the most presidential ever snapped:
In the end, here are the two sensible but tentative conclusions from the day:
1. DeSantis is potentially on the path to being good enough and strong enough to beat Trump in Iowa.
2. These three well-curated voter-on-the-street quotes in the Des Moines Register story suggest the opportunity and challenge facing the governor:
Several attendees of the Cedar Rapids event expressed their hesitation about Trump's candidacy — even those who plan to vote for him.
Kathy Potts, a 64-year-old Cedar Rapids activist, put it like this: "I like Donald Trump, but I hate Donald Trump." She called Trump a "bully" and "mean" — but she also said Trump "led the country better than anybody else," and she intends to support him in 2024.
Others at the Republican fundraiser said they're open to voting for someone else in 2024.
“With the Republican Party, I don’t think Trump’s the worst thing," said John Copley, the 20-year-old president of the Dordt University College Republicans. "But I do think DeSantis is stronger, if he does run."
Jeff Sorensen, a 63-year-old Muscatine resident, said he hasn't always appreciated Trump's "demeanor," although he supports Trump's policies. Sorensen said he appreciates the executive experience that governors bring to the Oval Office.
"I think Gov. DeSantis has done a fantastic job over a number of years in Florida, and I want to hear what he has to say," Sorenson said. "And hopefully he’ll get in the race and tell us that, one of these days.”
To be continued….
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ESSENTIAL READING/VIEWING
BERLIN (AP) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday his country is preparing a counteroffensive designed to liberate areas occupied by Russia, not to attack Russian territory.
Speaking during a news conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s goal is to free the territories within its internationally recognized borders.
Scholz told Zelenskyy that Germany will support Ukraine “for as long as necessary.”
Zelenskyy was welcomed with military honors Sunday as he made his first visit to Germany since Russia invaded Ukraine.
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* The Washington Post’s profile of a day-in-the-life of Rahm as ambassador to Japan includes his lament that Japanese food (while totemo oishi) is not spicy enough, to which I say:
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