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Two pro tips:
A. Figure out who to listen to.
B. Figure out what happens next.
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1. POST-KANSAS ABORTION WARS
In trying to understand the true implications of the Kansas abortion vote, focus on (a) the takes of conservatives and Republicans who will be honest about the state of play, with minimal spin; (b) data-driven analysts.
So….
Here’s the Wall Street Journal ed board:
The press corps is making a big deal of the defeat of the Kansas abortion referendum on Tuesday, and for once they’re right. The 20-or-so point rout of the effort to strip abortion protections from the state constitution is a message to Republicans and the anti-abortion movement that a total ban isn’t popular even in a right-leaning state.
Here is Donald Trump’s skilled pollster:
“We’ve found that many voters who would define themselves as pro-life still embrace several exceptions,” said Tony Fabrizio, lead pollster for Mr. Trump’s two presidential campaigns. “Conversely, many voters who would define themselves as pro-choice would embrace certain time limits.’’
Here is one of the smartest Republican strategists in North America:
“Add in candidates and a much more robust conversation about lots of other issues, this single issue isn’t going to drive the full national narrative that the Democrats are hoping for,” said David Kochel, a veteran of Republican politics in nearby Iowa. Still, Mr. Kochel acknowledged the risks of Republicans’ overstepping, as social conservatives push for abortion bans with few exceptions that polls generally show to be unpopular.
“The base of the G.O.P. is definitely ahead of where the voters are in wanting to restrict abortion,” he said. “That’s the main lesson of Kansas.”
Here is Washington Post columnist Henry Olsen (with an unrealistic proposal for the Republican congressional leadership, but/and a proposal that demonstrates Olsen knows how dire the situation is):
[T]he national GOP should try to take abortion off the table as quickly as possible. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) should hold a joint news conference soon in which they declare unconditionally that no federal antiabortion bill will receive a vote in the next Congress if they are in charge. That’s the best thing they can do to combat Democratic efforts to paint every Republican as an abortion extremist. Such a move would have enraged pro-lifers just last week, but the Kansas debacle should show them there’s no alternative….
Biden’s effort to placate progressives and push for radical change is why Republicans are on the cusp of a potentially momentous midterm win. It would be more than ironic if the GOP’s own radicals throw that opportunity away.
And, finally, here’s New York Times numbers person Nate Cohn:
The Kansas vote implies that around 65 percent of voters nationwide would reject a similar initiative to roll back abortion rights, including in more than 40 of the 50 states (a few states on each side are very close to 50-50). This is a rough estimate, based on how demographic characteristics predicted the results of recent abortion referendums. But it is an evidence-based way of arriving at a fairly obvious conclusion: If abortion rights wins 59 percent support in Kansas, it’s doing even better than that nationwide.
It’s a tally that’s in line with recent national surveys that showed greater support for legal abortion after the court’s decision. And the high turnout, especially among Democrats, confirms that abortion is not just some wedge issue of importance to political activists. The stakes of abortion policy have become high enough that it can drive a high midterm-like turnout on its own.
None of this proves that the issue will help Democrats in the midterm elections. And there are limits to what can be gleaned from the Kansas data. But the lopsided margin makes one thing clear: The political winds are now at the backs of abortion rights supporters.
What to look for next: We now know how Democrats are going to run on the abortion issue for the midterms. What are Republicans going to do in reaction to Kansas? Some combination of double down on the Biden economic record, defend their pro-life orientation, or soften their stance. What will it be…?
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2. DONALD TRUMP’S POLITICAL STANDING
The Washington Post’s David Byler has one of the most essential reads of 2022 evaluating the former president’s decline from 1,200-pound gorilla to…something less than that.
This is brilliant analysis, tethered to and driven by data:
Trump used to take positions that helped him stand out from other leading Republicans. But he hasn’t done that in 2024. He is focused on the “big lie” — an issue that’s less potent than it appears — and allowed Trumpian alternatives such as DeSantis to gain ground.
Trump once had an exclusive claim on key issues. Now, he doesn’t.
When Trump first ran for president in 2016, he took an unusual, three-pronged approach: He zoomed to the right on immigration, tacked toward the center on economics and attacked the GOP establishment at every opportunity. He distinguished himself from a field crowded with traditionally conservative career politicians — and he won the nomination.
But since then, Trump has lost his unique claim on each part of this approach.
What to look for next: Does Trump look to re-own his 2016 issues (as he did at his recent DC speech) and/or come up with a new suite of signature ideas to reestablish his dominance? Or neither?
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3. DESANTIS LEVERAGING HIS FLORIDA RE-ELECT
Watch every frame of the Sunshine State topper’s first campaign ad, which is stuffed with clues about how he sees 2022 and beyond:
What to look for next: Ignore all the (obvious) MAGA base plays; look to see where Team DeSantis goes hard for suburban and non-white voters.
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4. THE GROWING CONCERN/PANIC IN REPUBLICAN CIRCLES OVER THEIR SENATE CANDIDATES
When Karl Rove and Mitch McConnell both acknowledge weakness on the same matter, that means the weakness is overwhelming. So it is with Republican Senate hopefuls in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Arizona for sure, and, some would argue, also in Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Nevada. Which is to say in every top competitive race!
Here's Rove:
Every candidate, good or bad, is under pressure in the general election, which is coming up fast. Absentee voting starts in six weeks, Election Day is about three months off, and plenty of contests are up in the air. The Schumer-Manchin deal won’t save the Democrats. But unhinged GOP candidates might.
Here’s The Hill on the Senate Minority Leader:
McConnell sought to manage expectations Wednesday in an interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier when asked about the prospects of Republicans in several key races.
“I think it’s going to be very tight. We have a 50-50 nation. And I think when this Senate race smoke clears, we’re likely to have a very, very close Senate still, with us up slightly or the Democrats up slightly,” McConnell said Wednesday evening on Fox’s “Special Report.”
What to look for next: Can these weak GOP candidates raise money? Can NRSC consultants get them ready for debates? How potent will the iron triangle of the Democratic campaigns’ oppo armies, a compliant pro-Democratic Dominant Media, and social platform amplification be in the fall to bury the inexperienced and weak Republican flight of hopefuls?
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5. THE DEMOCRATIC CONSULTANT CLASS DOING 2022 RACES WILL REMAIN DOWN ON TEAM BIDEN
From an essential reading Politico story:
One adviser to major Democratic donors conceded that outside of Washington, “nobody gives a shit” about the Manchin legislative breakthrough. “[The Biden administration] doesn’t understand that the only thing people care about is inflation, gas prices and the economy writ large.”
“Of course there’s no messaging, and of course they don’t have any idea what the message is,” the adviser added. “They’re living in La La Land.”
Another senior Democratic strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity to protect client relationships, said they had conducted extensive interviews with swing-state voters ahead of the midterms. The conclusion from those surveyed was that Biden’s persistently weak standing had to do with voters’ fatigue, on everything from the lingering pandemic to the spate of mass shootings, which injected a higher degree of fear into peoples’ lives.
“Americans are looking for someone that will make them feel something — anything — again,” the strategist said.
What to look for next: Which Democrats in competitive races campaign with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris around the Labor Day kickoff?
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6. THE BIGGEST UNDERTOLD STORY OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION
Past is indeed prologue, so you need to read every New York Post story exploring alleged controversy, conspiracy, and conservative catnip assuming it MIGHT be true – because
a. it might in fact be true
b. if it IS true, it changes EVERYTHING
So you are obligated to ask yourself if today’s Miranda Devine piece – in which she shifts her gaze from Hunter’s laptop to Joe’s health – is more Dinesh D'Souza or David Broder.
What to look for next: Someone in Biden World cracking and telling the truth.
