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SATURDAY’S (OTHER) TITANIC BATTLES
White House Democrats versus House Republicans on the debt ceiling/spending
State of play: As President Biden and Speaker McCarthy both get fully on board with the time-honored rhetorical tactic of trying to outdo the other guy on “I’m willing to talk, I’m reasonable – it’s the other guy who is putting politics above the public interest,” the Washington Post publishes an essential reading explanation of the White House strategy:
The Biden administration is focused on pressing the GOP to unveil a debt limit plan that includes spending cuts, with the hope that such a proposal will prove so divisive among Republicans that they are forced to abandon brinkmanship. This strategy stems in part from the belief among White House officials that it would be enormously risky either to negotiate policy with the GOP on the debt limit or try to solve it via executive order — and they appear willing to put that premise to the test.
Who to bet on: The White House Democrats, for reasons laid out by Matthew Continetti, with his own essential read:
Republicans enter the debt ceiling fight with no leader, no strategy, and no specific proposal.
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Donald Trump versus House Republicans on entitlement reform/cuts
State of play:
Former President Donald Trump issued a warning to Republican lawmakers on Friday: Don’t lay a finger on entitlement programs as part of the debt ceiling showdown with the White House.
“Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security,” Trump said in a video message. (Politico)
Who to bet on: Trump. Extending on Continetti, Republicans have even less of a unified plan on how to limit entitlement spending than they do on their various debt ceiling “strategies,” and where there is no vision, the party perishes – and Trump wins. And the White House finds this to be a welcome and hilarious political present.
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NATO versus NATO on helping Ukraine
State of play:
Senior U.S. officials are advising Ukraine to hold off on launching a major offensive against Russian forces until the latest supply of U.S. weaponry is in place and training has been provided, a senior Biden administration official said on Friday.
The New York Times’ essential reading piece:
The billions of dollars in new arms for Ukraine announced this month — including British tanks, American fighting vehicles and howitzers from Denmark and Sweden — are testament to President Vladimir V. Putin’s failure to split the NATO allies after nearly a year of war. But small yet significant fractures are getting too big to hide.
The differences are over strategy for the coming year and the more immediate question of what Ukraine needs in the next few months, as both sides in the war prepare for major offensives in the spring. And while most of those debates take place behind closed doors, Britain’s impatience with the current pace of aid and Germany’s refusal to provide Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine broke out into public view this week.
Who to bet on: The Brits and Tony Blinken.
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Mike Pence versus Nikki Haley
State of play:
Mike Pence’s political operation has poached a top adviser to Nikki Haley as the two jostle for a position in the looming 2024 GOP presidential contest.
Tim Chapman, who had been serving as the executive director of Haley’s political nonprofit, has departed to join the Pence team. Chapman will be a senior adviser to Pence’s nonprofit, Advancing American Freedom.
Who to bet on: Any potential Republican presidential candidate not named “Trump” or “DeSantis” who can raise $20 million in hard dollars by Labor Day (with a bonus if more than 40% of that $20 million is raised online from small-dollar contributors).
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Supreme Court leak investigators versus everyone else
State of play: Ruth Marcus in the Washington Post speaks for the far left, the far right, and the middle in calling the “investigation,” even with its “interviews” of the Justices, “predictably inconclusive and grossly inadequate, pil[ing] one disaster on another.”
Who to bet on: Those calling for an actual investigation to be done anew.
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Who versus whom
State of play: Don’t know.
Whom to bet on: Who.