American Top 40: The Folks Who Will Determine Who Wins the White House

The brand new Wide World of News rankings...

Please join the 2WAY community today at 4pm ET for a live video discussion of the mental and physical health of Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

You can join the Zoom for free by clicking here.

Meeting ID: 864 2760 1441

Add the event to your calendar here.

We will hear from the legendary physician, Dr. Raymond Scalettar, whose medical time dealing with presidents goes back to Richard M. Nixon, an amazing story you can read about here.

Also joining us: Dr Jane Orient.

As always, we will be taking your questions.

To be a part of a conversation like no other on the topic on everyone’s mind, log in at 4pm today.

Mark

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If you plan to vote for Joe Biden (and not Donald Trump) and would like to be included in a session I am conducting next week via Zoom, please fill out this form to express your interest.

The date and time of the session will be determined soon.

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Here is the latest update on my signature Wide World of News Top People Who Will Determine the Outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election (Besides the Candidates)®.

And, yes, I know I need to be in the market for a catchier name.

39-40. Alvin Bragg and Fani Willis

Gotham City and Atlanta prosecutors who are more likely to help Trump with missteps than obtain a conviction that hurts him before the election. Both have had the race card played against them – and have played said card right back at their critics.  And both are in the news today with blockbuster hearing in NYC and Atlanta.

38. Merrick Garland

With oversight over the special counsel prosecutions of both Donald Trump and Hunter Biden – and a Hurian track record of stumblebumming his department into shades of Comey ’16, the man has surpassed (and  lapped) his fellow Cabinet members (Buttigieg, Becerra, Mayorkas) in suffering the biggest reputational damage during the Biden years, from sainted hero to goat (not to be confused with G-O-A-T).

37. Mike Johnson

The Accidental Speaker could be out of the slot by Election Day, but, as long as he is there, his capacity to herd Conference cats, keep MAGA maneuvering from alienating suburban voters, and checkmating the current commander-in-chief will delight or bedevil Mar-a-Lago.  Both some House Republicans and some Trump allies are now realizing that “My Mike” is not “My Kevin,” as per Politico. With Punchbowl News calling this “the most chaotic, inefficient and ineffective majority we’ve seen in decades covering Congress,” perhaps the additional shambolic action will turn out to be more than even Team Trump can handle

35-36. Barack and Michelle Obama

No, Michelle is not running a stealth campaign to replace Joe Biden – but the former First Couple is poised for major convention speeches and fall campaign schedules that will remind the members of the Coalition of the Ascendant why they signed up in the first place.

34. Robert Kennedy, Jr.

As long as he stays an independent candidate with no ballot access, RFK remains a giant waste of polling and Super PAC dollars. When and if he garners the Libertarian line, then his influence on the outcome – and place on this list – skyrocket upward.

33. Kamala Harris

Despite an improved perf from the maligned Veep, she remains more Selina Meyer than John Hoynes in the eyes of the media and many voters. A steady ship at the White House, a fiery campaign trail presence on abortion rights, and a charming star turn at the convention would go a long way towards taking the edge off of the “Biden’s old and she’s not ready” storyline – while more servings of word salad and tales of staff discord could make her a not insignificant part of an historic fail.

32. Hunter Biden

Controversy before Congress and in the press is one thing, but a felony conviction and possible jail time will figuratively break his father’s heart and lead to some family soul searching over how it got to that point – and a clan confab about what to do about it, with pardoning and resigning from the ticket a potential live option.

31. Chicago Democratic convention protest organizers

The left will be out in force, but don’t put it past the Chinese, the Russians, or the Trumpers to gin up camera-friendly, made-for-TV demonstrators who will paint signs and lead chants geared to inflict maximum damage on the incumbent president – and produce major second guessing about why the DNC chose the Windy City to begin with.

30. Janet Brown

The longtime head of the Commission on Presidential Debates is a certified master at acing what has become a quadrennial battle with one or more candidates to preserve the pre-announced schedule, to maintain the prerogative to pick the moderators and formats, and to set the ground rules. If there are debates, a nation will ask, “What did Brown do for us?” in a good way.

29. Ayatollah Khamenei

Evil despot, mischief maker, and exploiter of American weaknesses, the Iranian big macher will likely look for every opportunity through cyber warfare, propaganda, and miliary conflict to destabilize the cute democratic experiment we have going on here.

28. Sean Hannity

The single most influential outside force on Donald Trump, who listens to the TV jockey for guidance about when and how to react to news, slights, opportunities, and frustrations. Third parties – and sometimes even Trump’s own advisers – secretly enlist the Fox anchor at times to get the former president back on track. If a Trump victory depends on his demonstrating some discipline over the course of the year (and Karl Rove suggests it is arguably the whole ball of wax), Hannity is perhaps a more major player off camera than on.

16-27. Six Biden and Six Trump battleground state directors

Think of the battle for the Electoral College votes of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada as a half dozen separate gubernatorial contests. Although the media will pay most attention to the contest for the undecided/persuadable swing voters, highly specialized tactics and strategies for both turning out the base and suppressing certain voters from casting ballots will also be key, along with banking early votes, GOTV efforts, messaging, surrogate and principal scheduling coordination, and so much more. As these words are being written, both campaigns are finalizing their rosters for who will really be in charge of each of these six all-that-matter states.  The side that recruits the bigger all-stars for these critical slots will probably get to call the Oval Office home starting in January.

15. Matt Drudge

With X now a shadow of its former Twittery self and Threads still a digital infant, the long-running king of aggregation still wears his crown proud and loud, even if some new, occasional advert framing annoys many an old timer.  Matt remains the most influential super assignment editor and shaper of the Zeitgeist on everything from Taylor and Travis to weight loss miracles – and, of course, on the battle for the White House.

14. Bibi Netanyahu

With the Wall Street Journal updating on the latest tensions between Joe Biden and the Israeli PM, “leverage” remains the magic word, as the American president plays frustrating daily 3D chess with his long-running nemesis, who know American politics as well as Michael Barone, image making as well as Mike Deaver, and how to grab hold of the nut sack of a U.S. president (and not let go) as well as Putin.  Biden’s political advisers need pro-Palestinian young American voters to come back in the fold, which means they need Bibi to play ball sooner rather than later – and Bibi only plays what he wants to play, when he wants to play it.

12-13. Valerie Biden and Jill Biden

With some panicked Democratic donors and members of Congress now joining Republican fan fiction writers in suggesting Joe’s wife and sister will ease him out of the race before the national nominating convention, attention on the two ladies in the president’s life is focused on the wrong place.  The real influence of this pair will be in coordinating the daily life of their brother/husband so he’s well rested enough to perform like a fighting champ – but not so in the Oval Office basement that he looks badly outworked by the peripatetic Trump.  What has been 1,001 scheduling decisions each month is about to go to 2,024 scheduling decisions a day – and Val and Jilly are going to have to make the toughest of calls.

11. Jack Smith

The most special of special counsels has an under covered track record of losing high-profile cases – and an obsession with getting a Trump conviction (likely in DC, not Florida) before the election.  Smith’s Wednesday Supreme Court filing continues to play coy about his real reason for asking for expedited consideration of the Washington case – he plainly wants to derail Trump’s chances of winning the election by having him lose in court. Cast most often as a justice-seeking Javert, he might turn out instead to be more of a bumbling Marcia Clark – an aggressive prosecutor whose hard-charging ways leads to one of the highest profile acquittals in American history.

10. Mike Donilon

Arguably the only Biden political adviser with the total confidence of the boss, a full appreciation for both the need to appease the base and to appeal to the center, dual perches at both the campaign and the White House, and an understanding of the mechanics of winning elections, this war horse, like his candidate, has one last race to run, with tremendous power and influence behind the scenes, juiced by a keen awareness of both the challenges and the stakes. If Donilon plays error-free ball, Biden can win.

8-9. Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita

If Rove was Bush’s “Architect,” this duo are the Co-engineers of the Trump Train, dictating campaign (and, soon) RNC spending, massaging the media and the Red Hill, coordinating with those determining legal strategy and budgets, and (maybe most of all – see Hannity above) getting their candidate to stay on message and, where possible, to cede the spotlight to the incumbent with the disastrous approval ratings. Trump’s never had two pros like this at the top of the hierarchy – and has never placed so much trust in those pros to do their jobs. But there has also never been a presidential campaign challenge, running under 91 felony indictments, anything like this.

2-7. John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Sam Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett

The Choice: Treat the Trump cases like normal matters before the High Court (and, effectively, let him face the legal music after the election) or take their marching orders/cues from Jack Smith and expedite the DC case just enough to give special prosecutor what he wants – the chance for a conviction before Labor Day.  Trump needs five of the six to do his legal and political bidding – and no one really knows what they will do.

1. Tanya Chutkan

Retaining her #1 slot from the last ratings, if the Supremes give her the chance, Judge Chutkan will have lots of decisions to make in how to preside over the trial of this or any other century: jury selection, motions, objections, timing. With no cameras in the courtroom, her latitude will be greater – and if past is prologue, don’t expect the defendant to be cut much (a/k/a “any”) slack. She can’t guarantee a conviction, but she can put a finger or two (or two strong palms) on one side of the scales of justice.

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Honorable mention: Taylor Swift, Putin, Bruce Reed, Xi, Jen O’Malley Dillon, Cornell West, Anita Dunn, the Illegal Immigrant.

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Kansas City Star:

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ESSENTIAL READING

* A free gift link to David Ignatius explaining what there is to know (publicly, so far) about the alleged Russian space weapon.

* Polls, all consistent with most other public and private data and suggesting that Biden might not equal Suozzi (yet – or ever):

* This NBC News story makes implicitly clear based on the obvious secret sourcing that the White House, in overstepping its spin, has now picked a fight with a leaking-with-a-purpose special counsel:

President Joe Biden lashed out at Robert Hur last week over one particular line in the special counsel's report on his handling of classified documents: that Biden "did not remember, even within several years, when his son Beau died."

“How in the hell dare he raise that?” Biden told reporters in an impromptu White House press conference. “Frankly, when I was asked the question, I thought to myself, it wasn’t any of their damn business.”

But Hur never asked that question, according to two people familiar with Hur’s five-hour interview with the president over two days last October. It was the president, not Hur or his team, who first introduced Beau Biden’s death, they said.

* Bloomberg says the Trump legal kitty runs low.

* Today’s nomination for most Trump quote of the day, courtesy of the Associated Press’s write up of his Wednesday night South Carolina rally, which was intended by the campaign to put the focus on the Biden record:

Trump also tried to explain away his remarks in January in which he repeatedly confused Haley for former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, drawing questions about his mental fitness. Both Biden, 81, and Trump, 77, face widespread questions among voters about their age and readiness for a second term.

“I’m not a Nikki fan and I’m not a Pelosi fan and when I purposely interposed names they said, ‘He didn’t know Pelosi from Nikki, from Tricky Nikki,” he said. “No no, I think they both stink. They have something in common.”