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Also remember: This Anita Dunn “memo” is not real.
Or is it?????
****
TO: JRB
FROM: Anita Dunn
DATE: May 8, 2022
RE: How we win
***************
Before Bob and I head off to Lauriol Plaza for the special annual Mother’s Day brunch of the Gang of 500, I wanted to get you my initial thoughts in response to your question of why I see a path to “victory” (or, even, victory) in November’s midterms.
First, I’m sure you are wondering why it is that we continue to go to these establishment gatherings every weekend in this populist era in which we live.
Some traditions are worth fighting for, Mr. President.
Second, although I am not an Irishman from Scranton, those of us who grew up in Bethesda can be pretty dark as well. Which is why my (measured) optimism about the election should be taken seriously.
It all starts — and ends — with Donald Trump.
Your instincts on this from the beginning have been spot on. You ran to stop Trump, realizing, correctly, that you were the only Democrat in the country who could keep him from being reelected.
Now, paradoxically, he is both the biggest impediment to your governing well and our greatest asset in the midterms.
All the ways we can far exceed November expectations flow from your predecessor.
It starts with abortion, which is of course only on the table because of Trump’s three Supreme Court justices and his fervor in elevating the anti-abortion issue more than Reagan and the Bushes did combined.
Ron’s sources are pretty sure Roe is in fact going to be overturned, a tragedy for the women of this nation and/but a game changer in more one way for the fall.
The mass protests have already begun, not just in Blue states but also in Red ones, like Saturday’s in Texas.
As with Black Lives Matter events in 2020, these coast-to-coast rallies will energize our base (and theirs…), but our side is the one that needs energizing this time. We expect another round of these when the Court actually rules, continuing into the summer and fall, and there are already plans underway to turn these into massive voter registration and GOTV events.
The polls remain mixed on this complicated issue, but there is a new Yahoo survey that is cast in our favor. Celinda expects the actual decision in June/July to push the numbers even more in our direction.
Which leads me to another edge we now have because of Trump and abortion. Or, I should say, an edge we have regained.
Our Dominant Media homefield advantage is BACK, sir!!!
Inflation, Afghanistan, immigration, crime, COVID, your overall performance and poll numbers – all of those factors led our longtime pals and allies to turn on you.
But with reproductive freedom on the ballot, our press base is coming home bigly.
There is no single issue more than abortion that moves our media backers closer to us.
You can see it in the coverage of the last week in ten million ways. The latest example: the woman who lives in Chevy Chase as Justice Kavanaugh’s neighbor is lovingly profiled in the Washington Post, with a few sentences of faux balance overwhelmed by the heroic photos and overall take of her efforts to build a crowd at his house to put pressure on him.
We were laughing this morning about how that piece would be constructed and what its tone would be if the shoe were on the other foot and the story was about a right-wing nut job harassing Justice Sotomayor by protesting outside her home on a regular basis.
Although the right is up in arms about Jen Psaki’s failure to denounce the publication of the conservative justices’ home addresses, the Dominant Media really doesn’t give a rip.
Yes, there has been a round of stories – the latest in the Wall Street Journal – about your journey from pro-life to pro-choice, but these are just ticket-punchers, not paradigm setters.
And it isn’t just the press skew that is already having an impact on the midterm battlefield. This Politico roundup of the Republicans’ fear of how abortion will cost them seats is just the start. Same with the impact of the pending ruling on Pennsylvania that the New York Times writes about today. The Keystone State has of course long had its active pro-life movement, but, to paraphrase a great man, this is not your father’s Pennsylvania any more.
Speaking of Pennsylvania, this is another area where we can thank Wharton’s own Donald J. Trump for helping us out.
We are now rooting for the Trump-endorsed Dr. Oz to win that Senate primary, what with Trump’s own Secretary of State taking the extraordinary step of declaring the good doctor a national security risk over his ties to Turkey.
Could a liberal like John Fetterman really win a Senate seat in a Red year? Between Oz’s weaknesses and the potential GOP nominee at the top of the ticket, you betcha.
Please pray, sir, for this guy Doug Mastriano to be the Republican nominee for governor in Pennsylvania.
Mastriano is the kind of candidate who only has a chance at the nomination because of Trump. In fact, he only exists in politics because of Trump. And the Democratic opposition research on him and Oz will be epic.
Even with the midterm tides against us, we could actually win these two seats (and win/save a host of others down ballot in Pennsylvania) if these are the Republican nominees.
The same thing could happen in other states, where extreme MAGA candidates (almost all of whom will be overtly pro-life and lacking Trump’s magical political touch) will be beatable for us. Think Sharron Angle versus Harry Reid in 2010, when Harry survived despite the tsunami because she was simply unable to play the game once the oppo started to unfurl.
There is little chance that any of the Republicans’ competitive primaries will be won by the kind of establishment/centrist/moderate candidates who can compete in the fall. Politico breaks down what happened in the Ohio Senate primary, where the one moderate finished third, and looks ahead to the future dynamics in the Republican Party (including all the way to 2024).
And Dan Balz points out that Tim Ryan could swipe that Senate seat in the general against Vance, in part because Tim understands Trump voters better than Vance does, and in part because Tim is a better retail campaigner.
So, for all these reasons, what if we win Senate races in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Hampshire, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, and, maybe, even North Carolina? And gubernatorial contests in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin?
Then all of a sudden, we are not just limiting our losses (in terms of media expectations and reality) but actually winning this thing.
And in the House, our firewall remains in place. With almost all Biden +8 districts, our candidates are holding on (helped by incredible fundraising), meaning we aren’t going to lose over 35 seats. Even in semi-gerrymandered districts, abortion can make a difference, which we are already seeing in some of the generic ballot polling.
Finally, another area where the Dominant Media is about to fully return as our natural ally – the January 6th hearings.
We all know that as goes the Washington Post editorial board, so goes America.
Here is their big editorial today:
Jan. 6 should have been a turning point in our politics. Voters must recognize that where politicians stand on democracy is more important than tax rates, inflation, gas prices or any other policy issue.
Steve says the media-savvy committee is sitting on a wealth of additional nuggets, including some that go directly to Trump. And Trump created Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, whose presence at the hearings will allow the press to deem them “bipartisan” from the pregame shows to the opening gavel all the way through Election Day.
We might be mourning in America over the Supreme Court, but for our party and your presidency, sir, it is indeed morning in American.
Enjoy your workout; I’ll be having the huevos, washed down with some sangria, to both drown my sorrows and celebrate.