Bailing Out the Little Gal and Guy
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Here are my annotations on the president’s Sunday night statement:
HALPERIN SAYS: Assuming the White House’s plan works and the markets and consumers behave themselves on Monday and Tuesday, the narrative will move to a lot of falling action, 33% on regulation, 33% on politics, and 34% on winners and losers.
Although Team Biden wants America to think its actions were exclusively about protecting small businesses and workers, with no taxpayer bailout, the Washington Post and the rest of us fiery populists know otherwise:
The move will likely ignite a political firestorm over the decision to protect the assets of tech firms, venture capitalists, and other rich people in California…
Claims that the decisions do not amount to a “bailout,” however, are likely to be challenged. While the fund going to the depositors is paid into by U.S. banks, it is ultimately backstopped by the Treasury Department — and therefore U.S. taxpayers…
“Now is not the time for U.S. taxpayers to bail out Silicon Valley Bank. If there is a bailout of Silicon Valley Bank, it must be 100 percent financed by Wall Street and large financial institutions. We cannot continue down the road of more socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for everyone else,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in a statement.
What is perhaps most notable is the influence of the movements of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders on the way the Biden administration has handled this – and the reactions from Capitol Hill and on social media. What the traffic will bear politically is much, much different than in 2008, when fat cats with tin cups shaped as saucers could line up their lobbyists and get relief.
That might still happen, but it will require the cover of night.
The populist elements of this storyline are not done playing out, Team Biden’s weekend heroics to the contrary.
We still need the list of “losers.”
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ESSENTIAL READING
When Arab leaders met Xi Jinping at a regional summit in Riyadh last December, the Chinese head of state pitched an unprecedented idea: a high-level gathering of Gulf Arab monarchs and Iranian officials in Beijing in 2023, people familiar with the plan said. Days later, Tehran signed on as well.
By Friday, China had brokered a deal to restore relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which had gone seven years without ties. The broader summit between Iran and the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, which hasn’t previously been reported, is on track for later this year, the people said.
HALPERIN SAYS: The significance and impact of this China move is still largely unexplained and undigested by the Gang of 500.
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The Biden administration on Monday will formally approve a huge oil drilling project in Alaska known as Willow, according to two people familiar with the decision, despite widespread opposition because of its likely environmental and climate impacts.
The president will also impose sweeping restrictions on offshore oil leasing in the Arctic Ocean and across Alaska’s North Slope in an apparent effort to temper criticism over the Willow decision and, as one administration official put it, to form a “firewall” to limit future oil leases in the region. The Interior Department also is expected to issue new rules to protect more than 13 million acres in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska from oil and gas leasing.
The restrictions, however, are unlikely to offset concerns that the $8 billion Willow project, led by oil giant ConocoPhillips, will have the potential to produce more than 600 million barrels of crude over 30 years.
Burning all that oil could release nearly 280 million metric tons of carbon emissions into the atmosphere. On an annual basis, that would translate into 9.2 million metric tons of carbon pollution, equal to adding nearly two million cars to the roads each year. The United States, the second biggest polluter on the planet after China, emits about 5.6 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide annually….
“It’s insulting that Biden thinks this will change our minds about the Willow project,” said Kristen Monsell, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, an environmental group. “Protecting one area of the Arctic so you can destroy another doesn’t make sense, and it won’t help the people and wildlife who will be upended by the Willow project.,,,”
Oil industry officials criticized the planned Arctic protections.
“In the current energy crisis, the Biden administration should be focused on strengthening U.S. energy security and standing with the working families of Alaska by supporting the responsible development of federal lands and waters — not acting to restrict it,” said Frank Macchiarola, senior vice president of policy at the American Petroleum Institute, a trade organization.
HALPERIN SAYS: It is still not clear if this is one of those situations where making everyone unhappy proves it is a good policy move – or if Team Biden is just making everyone unhappy.
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President Joe Biden is set to meet with two of America’s closest allies to announce that Australia will purchase U.S.-manufactured, nuclear-powered attack submarines to modernize its fleet, amid growing concerns about China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Biden is traveling Monday to San Diego, where he will meet Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak for talks on the 18-month-old nuclear partnership known by the acronym AUKUS.
The partnership, announced in 2021, paved the way for Australia’s access to nuclear-powered submarines, which are stealthier and more capable than conventionally powered boats, as a counterweight to China’s military buildup.
San Diego is Biden’s first stop on a three-day trip to California and Nevada. He will discuss gun violence prevention in the community of Monterey Park, California, and his plans to lower prescription drug costs in Las Vegas. The trip will include fundraising stops as Biden steps up his political activities in advance of his expected plans to announce next month a run for reelection in 2024.
HALPERIN SAYS: At some point, Xi might well feel as encircled as Putin.
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Vice President Kamala Harris will spend a week in Africa at the end of March as the United States deepens its outreach to the continent amid global competition, notably with China.
“The trip will strengthen the United States’ partnerships throughout Africa and advance our shared efforts on security and economic prosperity,” said a statement from the vice president’s spokesperson, Kirsten Allen.
Harris’ plans follow visits by first lady Jill Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is going this week, and President Joe Biden is expected to travel to Africa later this year.
However, Harris will be closely watched as the first Black vice president in U.S. history and the first woman to hold the position.
She plans to be in Ghana from March 26 to 29, then in Tanzania from March 29 to 31. Her final stop is Zambia, on March 31 and April 1.
HALPERIN SAYS: Team Harris is engaged in a very hard push to turn the tide, the tables, and the page before Labor Day. Also, kudos to the administration for the overall commitment to Africa.
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As Trump returns to Iowa on Monday, he and his team are aiming for a more disciplined approach. They are particularly focused on building the data and digital engagement he will need to persuade Iowans to traipse through the cold and snow early next year to participate in the caucuses.
Though his swing through the eastern city of Davenport marks his first trip to Iowa since launching his third bid for the presidency, he’s held roughly three dozen events in the state since entering political life. They include several rallies that have attracted thousands since he left office in 2021.
His team is using information from those events to compile an exhaustive list of supporters to engage. The list now includes the data from the 2016 campaign that sat gathering dust.
“One of the advantages we have is that’s an awful lot of data,” said Trump senior consultant Chris LaCivita. “From every donor to rally attendee, we have all that information, which is important in a state like Iowa. This is ground-game stuff. It’s about finding and identifying favorable voters and making sure the campaign is turning them out….”
Trump on Monday will deliver what has been billed as an education policy speech, but he is expected to touch more broadly on his accomplishments as president and his agenda for another term, including trade policies and agriculture, according to a person familiar with his plans who spoke on condition of anonymity to preview his remarks.
Trump will also take questions from local reporters and is expected to make an unannounced stop at a local establishment, as he has during other recent trips. The campaign will also roll out endorsements from East Iowa elected officials, the person said.
HALPERIN SAYS: We don’t know yet how Team DeSantis will be at these kinds of mechanics, but, again, Trump has an experienced team, an experienced candidate, and a head start. Also, at some point, DeSantis will have to start taking questions from voters and reporters, really.
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Donald Trump’s former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen is poised to testify Monday before a Manhattan grand jury investigating hush-money payments he arranged and made on the former president’s behalf.
Cohen’s impending grand jury appearance was confirmed by two people familiar with the matter who were not authorized to speak publicly about grand jury proceedings and did so on condition of anonymity.
Cohen’s closed-door testimony is coming at a critical time as the Manhattan district attorney’s office closes in on a decision on whether to seek charges against Trump.
HALPERIN SAYS: Little discussed so far is what happens after a first Trump indictment to the other cases – will the subsequent prosecutorial decisions be impacted? Who goes first matters here, maybe a lot.
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7.
HALPERIN SAYS: Watch this space.