Biden Wins!
In the “calm” before the release of the Supreme Court storm (opinions expected Thursday morning…), all we can do is engage in the Gang of 500’s favorite pastime:
WHO WON THE NEWS CYCLE: BIDEN OR TRUMP?
Loading all the data into the machinery doesn’t always produce a clean answer, in part because it is not quite a zero-sum game between these two cats.
For instance, Trump having a bad day is not always good for Biden, while Biden having a bad day is pretty much always good for Trump.
What accounts for that asymmetry is a topic for another day (or a book….).
In the end, as bad as the last 24 hours has been for Joe Biden, he wins the news cycle over his predecessor, because, well, Trump is taking a battering on multiple fronts.
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First, though, the incumbent.
The reaction to the gas tax holiday gambit was pretty much as forecast in this space on Wednesday, although the Dominant Media remains relatively kind to the White House on this matter under the circumstances.
I mean, a president unveils a major proposal on the issue he says is his top priority, and his longtime ally, the Speaker of the House of his own party, basically gives it the back of her hand in a statement for the ages:
“We will see where the consensus lies on a path forward for the President’s proposal in the House and the Senate…”
Again, although the Dominant Media didn’t blare the political madness here, a close reading of the coverage yields the reality: dismissive opposition to the notion that a gas tax holiday is a good idea came from pretty much all corners, including the Boston Globe ed board and every Democrats’ favorite economist, Mark Zandi.
As they say at Dewey Square, “When you’ve lost Mark Zandi….”
Here’s Le Zandi:
“We want less people to use less gasoline because there’s a shortage of gasoline, and this would only encourage more use of it,” said Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.
Oh, and also per the Washington Post, Joe Biden has lost even his own internal team on this:
(T)he notion of a gas tax holiday was met with instant criticism — not only from members of both parties on Capitol Hill, but even from many officials within the administration who said privately that it would probably do little to significantly lower gas prices.
Top Treasury Department officials expressed doubts about the gas tax holiday, and at least two top White House economists also privately conveyed reservations, according to two people familiar with the internal deliberations who spoke on the condition of anonymity to disclose sensitive conversations.
Here’s a sampling of more things.
Biden’s break-glass moment on gas prices fell flat in the Capitol, with Democratic leaders keeping their distance and even those who support the idea privately wondering whether the White House has a longer-term plan. Even if the holiday had a chance of becoming law, lawmakers in Biden’s party say it’s far too limited a remedy….
The party’s gas tax flap is the latest sign of the disconnect between the White House and Hill Democrats on how to tame voter fury over inflation, which is now threatening both Senate and House majorities. Once hopeful that the cost of gas, food and rent would recede by the midterms, Democrats are now begging Biden to go beyond the optimism he’s offered in public and treat price spikes like a full-fledged economic crisis.
And, apparently, the president isn’t going to give up, per the New York Times:
White House officials, acknowledging the opposition from leading Democrats as well as Republicans in Congress, said Mr. Biden planned to reach out to both parties to build support — marking another test of the president’s clout at a time when his approval ratings are low and his party faces losses in the midterm elections.
Mr. Biden’s decision to go ahead with his appeal to Congress, despite the lack of consensus even among Democrats, was the latest sign of the desperation in the White House to find even modest steps to address an issue that is eating away at the president’s support.
Also, Fed Chairman Powell was on Capitol Hill yesterday, and the financial and congressional press corps are implicitly united in suggesting between the lines that Powell has a credibility and substantive problem regarding being the One to tame inflation (without a recession).
Finally, if you are an American politician who aspires to win a presidential election, you want to be broadly popular in New Hampshire.
Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, a new poll suggests, are not that:
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Donald Trump is having a worse news cycle, however.
First, per that same New Hampshire poll, Ron DeSantis could give Trump a run for his Granite State money:
This is one poll in one state, but it is historically quasi-devastating for Trump. If DeSantis is inclined to challenge his fellow Sunshine Stater for the nomination in ‘24 (which I still doubt…), this is a seminal moment of data.
Also, the Wall Street Journal ed board basically likes the Senate’s bipartisan gun safety package, which Trump opposes – and the former is likely to walk away with the legislative victory quite soon, which, combined with the New Hampshire poll suggests Trump WEAKNESS, which is the last thing Trump ever wants to see.
Same on the 1/6 committee investigation, where Mr. Trump is squealing like a stuck pig about the proceedings, as sure a sign as you will see that the House Democrats are making real progress.
Some of the squealing involves open second guessing of Kevin McCarthy’s decision to not fight to put some Trump loyalists on the committee, and you can expect more Mar-a-lago woo pig soooooie after today’s proceedings:
The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol plans to unveil new evidence on Thursday about how President Donald J. Trump tried to manipulate the Justice Department to help him cling to power after he lost the 2020 election, aides said on Wednesday.
At its fifth public hearing this month, scheduled for 3 p.m. on Thursday, the panel plans to hear testimony from three former top Justice Department officials who are expected to lay out the ways in which Mr. Trump tried to misuse the attorney general’s office to overturn his defeat, an extraordinary instance of a president interfering with the nation’s law enforcement apparatus for his own personal ends.
Committee aides said the panel would detail how Mr. Trump unsuccessfully pushed department officials to falsely declare that there was widespread fraud in the election, file lawsuits to benefit his campaign and appoint a conspiracy theorist as a special counsel to investigate the election. It will also trace his failed efforts to send false letters to state officials to subvert the election results and, finally, to replace the acting attorney general, who refused to go along with his plans. (New York Times)
Finally, Trump’s own pollster, the great Tony Fabrizio, did a survey of Pennsylvania voters for the AARP, and experienced poll readers will find Dr. Oz’s unfavorables across the board to be eye-popping:
Trump is on the hook for Republican Senate nominees in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, and maybe more, where his endorsed candidates could lose in November, despite the Biden Climate.
Setting up his party up to fail to win the Senate majority is not, on some levels, as bad as shooting someone on Fifth Avenue.
Except if you are Mitch McConnell and the Republican Party’s major donors.
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