Based on reporting with sources in both parties:
POTENTIAL TROUBLE AHEAD FOR JOE BIDEN
1. On the fiscal talks, he needs a little more market scare (as a forcing mechanism) and a little less 14th Amendment and discharge petition talk (which are the opposite of forcing mechanisms…), or he might indeed preside over a stumble into a default.
2. If the rate at which he has begun to look older in recent months continues, the optics of his reelection are going to be tougher.
3. A New Hampshire primary problem with no obvious solution.
4. China, China, China.
5. Any of five threads which might be pulled by the prosecutors or the press on the Hunter sweater.
6. The possible inability to generate enough online campaign money or enough enthusiasm from vital parts of the Obama coalition of the ascendent (young, non-white voters).
POTENTIAL TROUBLE AHEAD FOR DONALD TRUMP
1. The combination of a cyborg prosecutor, surveillance video, and a flipped witness (or two) in the Mar-a-Lago documents case.
2. Nowhere to run or hide on abortion.
3. His low- and high-dollar fundraising might significantly lag what Ron DeSantis generates.
4. Potential full-on support for DeSantis from his fellow governors (imagine if the Big Dogs of Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and, yes, Arkansas all back the Sunshine State topper….).
5. He could unexpectedly be pulled into a broader discussion about political service and age.
6. An Iowa caucus loss could leave him with a cut so deep the bleeding never stops.
POTENTIAL TROUBLE AHEAD FOR RON DESANTIS
1. Opposition research on his past, which will come from many quarters to a thirsty press corps.
2. The space, time, and distance challenge of simultaneously running for president, governing Florida, and being a dad of young kids.
3. Donald Trump might skip most or all of the RNC debates.
4. The frustrations he will feel when he understands the full degree to which Trump is not subject to the normal rules of political physics or accountability.
5. As with Hillary Clinton, the media will be in nonstop “gotcha” mode on his campaign trail skills – and the Internet (and Team Trump) will be in nonstop negative meme creation mode.
6. He might effectively get Trump one on one – and still not be able to beat him.
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ESSENTIAL READING
* Put a stop to the madness, overreaction, and heated discussions that occur every time a new Biden vs. Trump head-to-head general election poll comes out by reading honest Democratic pollster Mark Mellman’s column, whose truthiness will almost certainly be true if there’s a 2020 rematch in 2024, regardless of what happens in the balance of 2023:
At this moment, the race for the White House is a jump ball. The national popular vote (which is, after all, the only thing national polls measure) could go either way.
That finding itself could shock many Democrats who, like me, believe Biden is doing a great job and see Trump as that exquisitely rare combination of total evil and complete incompetence.
The simple fact is that no other poll suggests that judgment is shared by a majority of Americans. They all hint at a race that could go either way.
As we know, however, the national popular vote doesn’t decide presidential elections, the Electoral College does.
Combining historical data with current polling puts Biden ahead in states worth over 280 electoral votes — another clear indication he can win.
But his margins in several of those are razor-thin, just like the national popular vote. So although Biden can win, there is certainly no guarantee he will.
That depends very much on what happens in the next year and a half.
THAT’S IT FOR ESSENTIAL TODAY — AND I READ ‘EM ALL!
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One Wide World of News reader (for some reason) doesn’t like me to refer to Ron DeSantis as “the Sunshine State topper.”
The reader helpfully proposed these options for subsequent references:
* Florida governor
* Tallahassee chief executive or exec
* Plaza Level point man
* Sunshine State incumbent or chief
* Florida head of state
* Tallahassee topper or top executive
* Margaritaville boss man
* Florida commander in chief or chief or chieftain
* Tallahassee headliner
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CORRECTION: In Wednesday’s edition, I wrote “defuse” when I should have written “diffuse,” an error I regret – and which so many of you took apparent delight in pointing out to me.
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