Conventional Wisdom Is an Uncommon Virtue
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Original CW = the conventional wisdom we started with
Revised CW = the conventional wisdom we switched to
Current Truth = the actual reality now
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WHICH PARTY’S HOUSE MEMBERS WILL BE MORE AFFRONTED BY THE BIDEN-MCCARTHY FISCAL DEAL AND, THUS, MORE LIKELY TO VOTE “NO”?
Original CW: The Republicans.
Revised CW: The Democrats.
Current Truth: The Republicans (Surprise over IRS provisions and the Mountain Valley Pipeline -- even though you would think they would like that – lead to the Reds’ search for more elements to complain about….and the New Dem group is on board.)
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ARE JOE BIDEN’S NEGOTIATING SKILLS GOOD ENOUGH TO SOLVE THE DEBT CEILING CRISIS?
Original CW: Uniquely qualified.
Revised CW: In over his head.
Current Truth: Uniquely qualified.
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HOW ARE RON DESANTIS’ CHANCES OF BEATING DONALD TRUMP FOR THE NOMINATION?
Original CW: Juggernaut who will ride momentum to the nomination.
Revised CW: Too many other candidates diluting the vote (New York Times, Politico, and the Associated Press all say so) means Trump’s polling lead is insurmountable; DeSantis isn’t “all but dead” – he’s dead.
Current Truth: The Sunshine State topper’s chances of winning the nomination are actually substantially greater than the revised CW has it, with Trump’s weekend reversal on Disney and DeSantis’ little-covered offensive power play on 9/11 and the Saudis demonstrating (the former) the potential for error on the part of the frontrunner (he misread the mood of the nominating electorate on the Mouse House) and (the latter) the potential for winning aggressiveness on the part of the challenger.
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WILL THE BIDEN-MCCARTHY DEAL PASS THE HOUSE?
Original CW: No.
Revised CW: Yes.
Current Truth: Yes.
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WHO WILL WIN THE CELTICS-HEAT SERIES?
Original CW: Celtics.
Revised CW: Heat.
Current Truth: Pick ‘em.
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WILL ANY MORE CRIMINAL INDICTMENTS OF TRUMP HELP OR HURT HIM POLITICALLY?
Original CW: Hurt him.
Revised CW: Help him.
Current Truth: Hurt him.
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IS TED LASSO AN ALL-TIME GREAT TV SERIES?
Original CW: Course, bruv.
Revised CW: It was until the final season.
Current Truth: Never mind the bollocks – it most certainly is.
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DO REPUBLICANS HAVE THE CAPACITY TO RECRUIT AND NOMINATE STRONG GENERAL ELECTION CANDIDATES FOR THE SENATE IN 2024?
Original CW: No.
Revised CW: Yes.
Current Truth: Pick ‘em.
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CAN YOU WIN MONEY IN VEGAS?
Original CW: Of course not.
Revised CW: Maybe.
Current Truth: Not any more. (The Wall Street Journal: “As Las Vegas gambling and tourism boom, casinos are making it costlier to play and harder to win. Payouts are lower for winning blackjack hands. Bets on some roulette wheels are riskier. And it is taking more cash to play at many game tables.”)
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ESSENTIAL READING
* The Washington Post talks to female voters in Pennsylvania about why they still will/might, despite all their caveats, back Donald J. Trump for president.
* The Washington Post on how Anita Dunn has taken charge of Part 7 of Team Biden’s Veep reclamation project.