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A reader writes:
Trump is not just hinting of being toast per New Hampshire polls, which has everyone so abuzz. That’s nothing.
He’s going to be so ripped apart and left for dead by this committee. And all by the testimony of Trump Republicans.
Plus, we now have the “tapes” coming. Can you believe it. He is Nixon reincarnated right down to the secret tapes.
FBI now in Clark’s home. Come on, Mark. Trump is truly dead. Scoop the world and pronounce him so in tomorrow’s WWoN.
Will this impact the midterms? Not the House. That is gone. But it will contribute to Dems holding the Senate.
He’s over. Make the call.
Is Trumpism over? Good question. For later discussions.
This Thursday reader missive represents the point of view of 98% of all of those who control the Conventional Wisdom in America.
Which means it might just be true.
Or it might not.
But it is certainly true that today is the high point in the last five years for the Gang of 500’s certainty that Donald Trump is a dead man golfing – that the (in their estimate) 25% of the nation who still have any interest in a role for Donald Trump on the national stage have effectively lost their leading man (even if he isn’t indicted or hit by a proverbial bus).
Should this point of view be taken with any grains of salt given (a) the people espousing this position to a persona all WANT it to be true – and thus might be leaning more heavily into its veracity than they otherwise would or the facts warrant; and (b) most (but not all) of the polling data regarding Trump’s hold on the Republican electorate?
Some salt is clearly needed here, but the Nevermore Trump cluster has plenty to key off of now, and keying they are.
First, I had a cut-and-paste error of David Kingman propositions in Thursday’s edition in writing about that New Hampshire poll, which suggested, among other things, that Trump has lost Granite ground to Ron DeSantis.
For our overall purposes today, the most important finding in the survey was that Joe Biden (whose standing with New Hampshire voters isn’t all that great, to say the least) would wallop Trump there in a rematch:
And that is before the 1/6 committee’s well-reviewed work fully sinks in from Salem to Berlin.
Like my sage reader, Peggy Noonan isn’t waiting for more hearings; she has declared the fight over, and Donald Trump to be lying flat on his back, poised to be carted away:
A distinction must be made between Trump voters and Trump supporters. Trump voters are the bigger group. They don’t love him, but made a considered judgment he was better than the Democratic alternative and don’t regret it. From my email I’d say they’re shopping—eagerly. Trump supporters, the smaller but still considerable group, are true enthusiasts. It’s about him. They will never not cheer him, especially when the cameras are around, and they will never turn their backs—but they are turning away. Quietly, in a way unacknowledged to their friends and maybe to themselves. But there’s a new hesitancy in their notes, or rather an absence of the previous tone of “I’m on the winning side.” And yes, both groups seem to like Mr. DeSantis, who is capturing the Republican imagination as tough and committed but not unstable or criminal.
Mr. Trump’s national polling numbers continue underwater, but the real test will be to see those numbers after the Jan. 6 hearings are over. I believe we’ll see Rep. Liz Cheney’s kamikaze mission hit its target, and the SS Trump will list….
They are telling a fascinating and devastating story: An American president tried to thwart the democracy that raised him high and to steal a presidential election he’d lost. And it almost worked. But good people stopped it….
This is one of the great stories. Mr. Trump won’t recover from it.
I think Republicans, including plenty of Trump people, are slowly but surely solving their party’s Trump problem.
Rich Lowry is not quite as sure as Ms. Noonan is, but sees “progress” at least “at the margins”:
I thought the January 6 committee wouldn’t have any chance of reaching this cohort [of Trump backers]. Instead, by revisiting the insanity of the post-election period and sucking Trump into responding, the committee has seemingly enhanced the sense of Trump fatigue among these voters, at least at the margins.
Those who believe they see the walls closing in on Mr. Trump also point to a stepped-up Justice Department probe raiding the home of a key Trump ally; signs that the DeSantis’ rise has achieved liftoff and inexorable momentum; and the imminent passage of a gun safety bill that was not slowed one iota by Trump’s rhetorical opposition.
Not to mention his open frustration with the hearings; his abandonment by (even) Dr. Oz; and his latest scrape with Kevin McCarthy.
Yes, those who want Trump politically dead and buried are feeling as high as Liz Cheney’s job approval ratings are in Fairfax and Arlington.
Is the “Trump’s done” group able to see dead people like Haley Joel Osment in “The Sixth Sense”? Or are they opining from a funhouse of dark and distorting mirrors, seeing more what they think ought to be than what is?
Let’s recall, for instance, what the midterms are likely to be like, what the polls say about Trump’s chances to win a nomination fight, what Ron DeSantis’ personality is like, and what Joe Biden’s own pollster has said publicly (that the current president is the ONLY Democrat who can beat Trump in November of 2024).
I am not ready quite yet to claim that scoop.
But I see where the vector points from Manhattan all the way to Chevy Chase…and, perhaps, beyond.
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What an incredible victory for gun safety advocates, for those who oppose DC gridlock when action is needed, and for the efficacy of Gangs when regular order can’t get the job done.
Why, oh why, would Mitch McConnell, bill supporter, say the quiet part out loud? (as per Politico)
While the NRA opposed the bill, McConnell and Cornyn both spoke to the group about the legislation — discussions that McConnell called “fruitful.” Though the two top Republicans’ yes votes Thursday could cause them some problems with conservative voters, McConnell said he sees the effort as both good policy and good politics for a party that’s lost ground with some swing constituencies.
“We’ve lost ground in suburban areas. We pretty much own rural and small-town America. And I think this is a sensible solution to the problem before us, which is school safety and mental health,” McConnell said on Thursday night. “I hope it will be viewed favorably by voters in the suburbs that we need to regain in order to hopefully be in the majority next year.”
There’s more coming on this front….
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ESSENTIAL READING
Nothing else.