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Before the pandemic, there were three essential ingredients to any possible Trump win:
1. He needed to make the race a choice between him and the Democratic nominee, not a referendum on his presidency.
2. He then needed to disqualify that Democratic choice as an acceptable option in the minds of enough voters.
3. He needed one or more additional candidates on the ballot in battleground states to collectively win more than 5% of the vote to allow him to take contests with just a plurality (as he did in many states in 2016).
After the pandemic began, there were three additional essential ingredients to any possible Trump win:
1. He needed to substantially improve his job approval rating on the issue of handling the pandemic.
2. He needed to talk about COVID-19 in a manner that was comforting, realistic, and hopeful.
3. He needed to make the daily information flow on the race about something other than the virus virus virus.
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Let’s quickly tally up how the president is doing on those six metrics….
6 divided by 9, carry the 1, take the square root…..and
ZERO for 6.
Combine all Donald Trump has brought on himself through his actions and words AND a Dominant Media that is ready to frog-march him right out of the Northwest Gate of the White House, through Lafayette Square and back to Trump Tower and you have a recipe for an incumbent who enters the final three weeks of his reelection campaign on his back foot, contagious politically (if not, maybe, literally).
First consider the zeitgeist setter/zeitgeist confirmer of the new ABC News/Washington Post poll:
Biden is favored by 54 percent of likely voters, with Trump favored by 42 percent. Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen receives 2 percent support, and Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins is at 1 percent. Biden’s lead among registered voters is also 12 points, consistent with Post-ABC polls taken in recent months….
Trump’s overall approval rating among registered voters stands at 45 percent positive and 54 percent negative, with 47 percent saying they strongly disapprove. Among those who approve of his job performance, 90 percent favor him for reelection, while among those who disapprove, 93 percent favor Biden. Notably, Trump’s deficit in support to Biden has hovered close to his net approval margin throughout the election.
The president’s ratings on handling the pandemic are slightly worse than his overall marks, with 41 percent of registered voters saying they approve and 58 percent saying they disapprove. Slightly more than 9 in 10 who approve of his handling of the outbreak support Trump for reelection, while nearly 9 in 10 who disapprove support Biden….
Trump and Biden are trusted about equally to handle the economy, while Biden has a 17-point advantage (55 percent to 38 percent) on dealing with the virus.
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What would Joe Biden have to do to make this race a choice and not a referendum?
That is unclear.
Saturday, he flip flopped (on accepting the results of the election); highlighted a prior flip flop (on fracking) and dodged (on court packing, again).
Those moves launched a hundred thousand Team Trump tweets, but were no match on TV or news websites for:
The president’s health, his rallies, his post-election plans, his relationship with pandemic restrictions, his past interviews, his staff, his disagreements with fellow party members, his punctuality, his son-in-law’s work habits and religion, his voice strength,…
his former aides’ tweets…
his former rivals’ tweets…
Plus, there are major investigative pieces about him (far fewer on Joe Biden), a mocking MoDo column, comparisons to dictators and despots, and a cataloguing of his party’s voter suppression efforts,
Also: sniping and peeing inside the tent:
Republican lawmakers and officials within Trump’s own administration have criticized the president for failing to put forward a coherent message about the virus other than downplaying it and touting his personal ability to survive it.
“We’re not articulating a vision for where we’re going or even articulating what we’ve done,” said one senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal concerns.
Additionally, kickers like this:
[I]t’s not clear whether Trump is willing to use his political capital to persuade lawmakers in his party to get on board.
During his 18-minute speech Saturday, he talked about supporting law enforcement, building a border wall, securing a coronavirus vaccine, combating alleged voter fraud, supporting criminal justice measures and signing a yet-to-be-released health-care plan.
He did not mention the economic relief package.
Finally, most of all, leak-driven anecdotes for the ages:
In several phone calls last weekend from the presidential suite at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, Mr. Trump shared an idea he was considering: When he left the hospital, he wanted to appear frail at first when people saw him, according to people with knowledge of the conversations. But underneath his button-down dress shirt, he would wear a Superman T-shirt, which he would reveal as a symbol of strength when he ripped open the top layer. He ultimately did not go ahead with the stunt.
HALPERIN SAYS: Not only can one think simultaneously that certain quadrants of the media are out to get Donald Trump and that he has brought his current political standing upon himself, but that is exactly what many members of the Trump high command believe.
It ain’t over until it’s over, but if the president keeps going ZERO for 6 on these indices, it’s over.
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This might be the single most amazing political statistic of the last 57 years:
Jaime Harrison, the Democrat challenging Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham in South Carolina’s high-profile U.S. Senate race, brought in more money in the last full fundraising quarter of the contest than any Senate candidate over a similar period in American history. By a lot.
With a staggering $57 million haul from July through September, Harrison shattered the three-month record set in 2018 by Texas Democrat Beto O’Rourke, who was challenging U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and brought in $38 million in his final full quarter of that race.
The extraordinary amount, announced by Harrison’s campaign Sunday, brings his total for the race to $86 million, multiples more than any South Carolina candidate ever and far outpacing Graham’s own fundraising, which would be considered formidable in any previous election cycle. (Post and Courier)
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ESSENTIAL READING
How Pennsylvania has supplanted Wisconsin as the Most Important State on the Electoral College Map, in the Washington Post.
HALPERIN SAYS: As of today, it is only slightly hyperbolic to argue that Trump-Pence has precisely one path to 270, which is winning all the states the Republicans won four years ago, minus Wisconsin and Michigan, with a possible Keystone State victory providing the slim winning margin (along with Arizona and the Significant 6).
As always, not a prediction or a rooting, just analysis of a possibility, one which is not very likely at this writing.
*
Revisit Bush vs. Gore (and learn about Amy Coney Barrett’s role) in this Washington Post historical romp through yesteryear.
HALPERIN SAYS: Really only “essential” for 2000 obsessives.
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The Big 4.2 - by Brian P. Nadeau
Arizona - Early Voting Began October 7th
* New Biden-Harris campaign ad featuring Cindy McCain launched Saturday across AZ, spot heads to Fox News Sunday, 60 Minutes, NFL games Sunday. (KNXV ABC15)
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Michigan - Early Voting Began September 24th
* Wolverine State’s 2.4M absentee ballot requests already fully eclipsed 2016’s 802K, as Dems. appear to benefit with majority increases in Metro Detroit, West Michigan, Lansing area. (The Detroit News)
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Nebraska-2 - Early Voting Began October 5th
* Omaha PD stopped 175 people for mask checks over 2-month mandate period, none cited due to compliance, says Chief Todd Schmaderer. (KETV ABC7)
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Pennsylvania - Early Voting Began September 28th
* Fed. judge deals Trump campaign defeat ruling ballot drop boxes OK, poll watchers allowed only in counties where registered to vote. (The Philadelphia Inquirer)
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Wisconsin - Early Voting Begins October 15th
* 4th night of protests in Wauwatosa call attention to killing of 17-year old Alvin Cole by officer Joseph Mensha without charges filed. (WITI FOX6)
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