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Confusing hope with reality, 99% of the anti-Trump portion of America has long assumed (and still assumes!) the Maestro of Mar-a-Lago will be off the national stage no later than November of 2024, via one of the following methods:
1. Death.
2. Indictment and conviction.
3. Beaten for the Republican nomination by either Ron DeSantis or someone from the Jeb-Mitt-McCain lane.
4. Beaten in the general election by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
In the view of the Hopers, at that point, Trump’s banishment would also mean the effective end of Trumpism, and America could go back to the glory days of pre-2015.
The certitude of the Hopers, in the face of actual contrary facts, is both mysterious and understandable.
Incurious and largely ignorant about the true reasons for Trump’s rise and staying power, the donor class, Rupert Murdoch, the Dominant Media, and the Adam Schiff wing of the Republican Party all are setting themselves up for some problems.
For even if one of the four scenarios above come true (and one could!), America will still be grappling with Trumpism (and maybe Trump too) for a long time.
Just a few months ago, what determined who won nearly every contested Republican primary in America was who got Trump’s endorsement. The Dominant Media ignored this fact and instead chose to focus on the few cases in which Trump-backed candidates lost intra-party struggles.
Then the GOP midterm losses came, Jack Smith came, Joe Biden’s revival came – and Trump was deemed done and dusted for good. Anti-Trump America knew we were about to watch some sort of falling action, with Trump in a pine box, shackled, or wearing a “two-time loser” sign.
Instead, behold the strong position on politics and policy that the once and potentially future president holds:
1. Check out the polling.
It isn’t just the pro-Trump media that is finally catching on to the trend. Here is what Axios says:
Four new polls show former President Trump has received a boost in Republican support — with one survey showing him hitting 50% support in a crowded GOP field.
Why it matters: After a shaky start to his presidential campaign, Trump has quietly found his footing over the last month.
Not every poll shows what the new Emerson poll does, but lots do.
Focus here, folks: Trump is way ahead of DeSantis and the candidates from the Jeb-Mitt-McCain lane – and beats Biden head to head.
In fact, Trump is the only one of three candidates tested who is currently ahead of Biden, giving him for now the “electability” card that the Hopers (like Paul Ryan) thought would be the silver bullet to take him out.
What do you think – is Joe Biden going to get stronger as a general election candidate between now and 2024, weaker, or the same? Is Ron DeSantis going to be a better national candidate than his Florida performance suggests, worse, or the same?
We can’t be sure about either of those answers, but I wouldn’t bet on “stronger/better” in either case. What we do know is that Trump is going to be Trump, a man who won the presidency once and then almost won it a second time, after showing the nation his heart for four years.
2. Could there be a more Trumpian political result than Lori Lightfoot losing her reelection bid in Chicago? I don’t even need to list for you, dear readers, all of the semiotic reasons why Mr. Trump surely raised a glass or two of vintage Diet Coke last night in celebration of his sweet victory.
3. In crass, raw political terms, the Ohio train derailment continues to be a massive win for Trump. Ask any honest Buckeye State Democratic operative – or ask Jen Palmieri (via Mediaite):
[O]n Tuesday morning’s edition of MSNBC’s Morning Joe, Palmieri praised Trump, saying he “struck a chord” and was less self-centered on the trip, and said that Biden “must go” at some point:
JEN PALMIERI: Trump has struck a chord with this, though, I have to say, you know, he was, when he went to East Palestine last week. He was better than we had seen in other more recent times where all he does is complain about himself. In East Palestine, he was, you know, he was advocating on behalf of the people that were there, aggrieved on their behalf, not aggrieved on his own behalf. And I don’t…
You know, that area of Ohio is, it’s a tough one, but I think it’s for Democrats. But for the administration, you’ve got to go. You’ve got to you know, Biden should show up at some point as well. Like you just there’s not a lot of political payoff for that area. But there’s a responsibility and the rest of us want to see that the administration is doing everything they can.
Ohio’s forgotten men and women are real people, but they are also a metaphor for the Trump coalition, which is still out there, capable of producing an Electoral College majority.
4. Even the Deep State has caught on – the pandemic might well have started in a lab in China. One might even call it “the China virus.”
5. In fact, on China generally, Trump has won. There is now a completely different bipartisan agreement on China than pre-Trump (as demonstrated by Tuesday night’s extraordinary House hearing, one of many held in a single day by different committees). There is no more Establishment/Gang of 500 consensus “sure the Chinese violate human rights and cheat on trade – we still need to keep our regular engagement with them.” Instead, on China, we are all Trumpian now.
6. While the bipartisan Blob’s foreign policy is all in for Ukraine, the Trump view of no more expensive forever wars is rising – and not just in hardcore Red America. Biden might get more money from a Republican House this year for the war, but he might not, and if not, it will be because of Trump.
Republicans in Congress sharply questioned senior Pentagon officials on Tuesday about the tens of billions of dollars in military and other aid the United States has sent to Ukraine, casting fresh doubt on whether they would embrace future spending as Democrats pleaded for a cleareyed assessment of how much more money would be needed.
The exchanges at two House committee hearings, coming just days after the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, highlighted how concerns about the high cost of sending weapons to Kyiv have intensified on Capitol Hill. The growing doubts have threatened what has been a strong bipartisan consensus in favor of the aid, and could make it more difficult for the Biden administration to win congressional approval of funds to replenish its military assistance accounts. The funding inflection point could come as soon as this summer, months earlier than previously expected.
The hearings also illustrated how members of both parties, despite expressing confidence that a majority in Congress remains committed to supporting Ukraine, are concerned that a determined minority — including right-wing Republicans who eschew U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts and liberal antiwar Democrats — may weaken that resolve if the war continues to drag on.
7. The Biden administration keeps adopting some parts of Trump’s border policies, but mostly the entire Republican Party is now united around Trump’s rhetoric, remedies, and rationales for dealing with immigrants.
8. Have you heard Joe Biden talk about — let alone champion — a free trade deal? Guess why. Or, rather, who.
9. Crime is now an intense national issue that Democrats are on the defensive over.
10. Homelessness is now an intense national issue that Democrats are on the defensive over.
11. Saving/reforming Social Security and Medicare? Off the table (for now), because of Trump.
12. Hunter’s travails remain front and center, drawing more focus than the Trump children these days.
13. Kevin McCarthy is Speaker because of Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz – two of the most Trumpy foot soldiers in the MAGA brigade. And there is virtually nothing in the House Republican agenda that runs counter to Trump’s agenda.
14. In plain sight but under the radar of the Hopers, Trump’s team has him churning out MAGA policy videos on a regular basis. And, guess what? None of them focus on the 2020 election as being stolen.
15. What was true in 2015 is still true now – Fox needs Donald Trump more than Donald Trump needs Fox.
16. Every time a former Trump-backing donor or elected official comes out for DeSantis, the Dominant Media huzzahs. But, truly Trump is still the king of the party.
And if you thought Trump was thin-skinned:
17. At this point, in the polling, the Jeb-Mitt-McCain candidates have less than 5% between them. Sure, that wing of the party has tens of millions of adherents, but because of Donald Trump, they might end up with no actual candidate vying for the nomination.
Oh, and this list is not exhaustive! I just included enough to make the point.
Out of an abundance of caution, I will repeat: I’m not rooting for Trump or predicting he will win in 2024.
At this point, I think you know what I am telling you.
Or, rather, what tens of millions of your fellow citizens are telling you.
To be continued….
a/k/a
*****
ESSENTIAL READING/VIEWING
