GETTING RID OF POWELL
What’s really happening: Trump’s legal and economic advisers have made it clear that firing the Fed topper outright would be a mistake on legal and market terms, so the highly coordinated, sophisticated, and (often) sophomoric effort to make Powell so miserable that he quits will continue unabated and scaled up, including the unprecedented involvement of Bill Pulte, the cutthroat exertions of Russ Vought, and the masterminding of James Blair.
The mystery: Does Powell have a break point or he just plans to wait it out?
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PICKING A NEW FED CHAIR
What’s really happening: Team Warsh’s extravagant efforts to get their man the slot are almost certainly counterproductive and doomed to fail; Bessent could pull a Cheney but will more likely make the recommendation of someone else (besides himself or Hassett) that Trump will accept; so I would focus on who is behind Door #4, unless, in fact, Trump waits to make the pick long enough that Bessett prefers to leave Treasury in a bid to become the only American in modern history to ace both jobs.
The mystery: Does Besssent want the Fed or not??!!
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TRUMP AND EPSTEIN
What’s really happening: Trump will marshal the usual playbook elements (Democrats, Comey, Fake News, etc.) to beat back a conspiracy theory with another conspiracy theory, getting the outside influencers and inside player band back together, and walk through gunfire that would politically kill any other modern politician (except Bill Clinton…), giving into the Disclosure Gods just enough to turn the page.
The mystery: Is this going to be the extremely rare instance in which Peggy Noonan (writing about Trump and his MAGA flock) turns out to be wrong?
The breach will ease with time. It won’t be a break because too many have too much to lose. But it won’t fully heal. Things will be different going forward. Each side saw something they hadn’t known before: They can break apart.
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CONGRESSIONAL REPUBLICANS CONSISTENTLY PASSING TRUMP’S AGENDA
What’s really happening: The secret, sophisticated, efficient, and expert coordination of Team Trump-Vance-Thune-Johnson should be studied by historians and political scientists for their level of execution with narrow margins, based on a 4D whip counting machine that makes Tom DeLay look like a hobbyist.
The mystery: What does their agenda look like going forward when they actually start to need 60 votes in the senate to get anything done?
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BILATERAL TRADE DEALS
What’s really happening: Trump’s trade team continues to drive bargains harder than a cement block, upsetting the tender mercies of the David Ignatiuses of the world community, but not bothering markets all too much any more.
The mystery: Does the clock ever actually run out and what about supply chains, holiday prices and availability, and that EU trip to Peking?
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IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
What’s really happening: New York Times:
Iran’s deeply buried nuclear enrichment plant at Fordo was badly damaged, and potentially destroyed, by the 12 massive bombs that U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers dropped on it last month, according to a new American intelligence assessment.
Two other nuclear sites targeted in the U.S. attacks were not as badly damaged, but facilities at the sites that would be key to fabricating a nuclear weapon were destroyed and could take years to rebuild, U.S. officials said.
A senior Israeli official said last week that the strikes most likely did not eliminate the stockpile of near-bomb-grade fuel that could be used to produce upward of 10 nuclear weapons. But without the facilities to manufacture a weapon, U.S. officials insist, the fuel would be of little use even if the Iranians can dig it out of the rubble.
The new assessment helps create a clearer picture of what the combined Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran achieved. The bombings deeply damaged Fordo — considered by the Iranians to be their best-protected and most advanced nuclear enrichment site — probably crippling Iran’s ability to make nuclear fuel for years to come.
The mystery: Will there be a U.S.-Iran negotiated deal or not?
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EFFORTS TO STOP MAMDANI
What’s really happening: Cuomo has ramped up his public facing efforts to a nearly hilarious degree; the business community, as desperate as ever to stop the socialist, sours some on Adams; opposition researchers are looking for the silver bullet video; and the voters have not focused yet.
The mystery: Can Cuomo, by virtue of polling, forcing people out of the race, and strong appeal, keep the vote share of the other three candidates besides Mamdani below 27%?
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CANCELLATION OF COLBERT
What’s really happening: The economics and politics of the program (and the host) were a bridge way too far for the incoming regime.
The mystery: What will happen to the time slot and what level of editorial/journalistic integrity will the new owners want the brand to stand for, at news and beyond?
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DEMOCRATS AND ‘28
What’s really happening: With no clear first-in-the-nation calendar set, a weak field, and Harris taking up space in the national polling, absolutely nothing of meaning is likely to occur anytime soon.
The mystery: When the first tier for real will be established, who can raise serious money, and does anyone become the It Candidate before the midterms?