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There’s a lot going on in the politico-media United States of America and in the actual United States of America.
Here are my humble suggestions of how you might want to see stuff.
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POPULAR AND ELECTORAL VOTE COUNTING GOING FORWARD
An analyst on Fox News channel Thursday morning said the president had about a 5% chance to win reelection, after which the hosts did not disagree, although the reporting of the dominant media suggests the chances are quite a bit lower.
However, read this New York Times summary of where the key states stand and ask yourself: are we one or two (or four) found errors and slightly surprising vote tallies away from Donald Trump getting Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, giving him all of the Significant 6 plus the two states that comprised the final pieces in what appeared Tuesday morning to be far and away his most likely (albeit extremely narrow) path to victory, per his own campaign and my analysis? If all that happened, the president would be reelected.
I’m not predicting all that is going to happen at all, but the utter dismissal of this outcome by the ether seems at least a bit odd. Dismissing the mere possibility of this result because one fervently wishes it not to happen is what it is.
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DONALD TRUMP GOING FORWARD
Send super whack tweets (even by his own lofty standards) suggesting magical thinking about how America’s elections and courts work; proceed with the apparent decision to be his own Jim Baker (with Rudy as sidekick); promote vote counting where he is behind and vote stoppages where he is ahead by pursuing lawsuits and recounts with no concern about consistency; flaunt grievance, conspiracy theories, and anger at Fox News; do nothing to discourage menacing protests of intimidation (and more) by his supporters; quietly display a growing recognition that his life could soon be less about international intrigue and impeachment and more about concern over indictments.
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JOE BIDEN GOING FORWARD
Follow his pitch-perfect comms team’s plans to declare victory without (yet) declaring victory; be seen as deferring to (and respecting) the will of the voters; show forward motion on transition and administration planning; get ready to (contrary to prior statements) let the news people determine who wins by switching more to “I won” mode when the media puts him over 270 electoral votes; come to grips with the personnel and policy implications of a near-certain Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (who Biden detests as much as almost anyone else with whom he has ever worked); and realize his likely first 100 days in the Oval (and beyond) are going to be extremely hard.
On that last point, Ruth Marcus’ op ed (as dark as it is realistic) is essential reading.
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NANCY PELOSI GOING FORWARD
Fight off hyped-but-doomed efforts to replace her as speaker; try to figure out (really and truly) why Democrats lost House seats rather than gained them; gently suggest to the progressive members of her caucus that they didn’t fall short as a party because they ran as too centrist and to the moderate members of her caucus that they didn’t fall short as a party because they ran as too liberal; recalibrate everything she was thinking about the lame duck and the first 100 days (including on pandemic relief legislation); wonder if two (or four) more years of dealing with Mitch McConnell is her dream job; and take stock of how divided the country remains, with almost half of Americans, more than half of Floridians, and many Obama-Obama-Trump counties supporting a man who she thinks is unworthy and whose far fuller repudiation she thought was required to cleanse the nation’s soul
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MITCH MCCONNELL GOING FORWARD
Decide if he wants to be a force for reconciliation, renewal, and a return to the grand tradition of American bipartisanship (just kidding!); craftily float a lame-duck aspiration on pandemic relief legislation (and smile McConnelly over the media’s taking his words at face value); talk to donors; revel in the extraordinary election Republicans had at every level of government (save one); give Donald Trump a little bit more time to try to find a way to win, but watching his watch closely, well aware he could declare “your time has come, Mr. President” sooner than many of you realize.
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CHUCK SCHUMER GOING FORWARD
Lament.
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THE MEDIA GOING FORWARD
Take stock of how divided the country remains, with almost half of Americans, more than half of Floridians, and many Obama-Obama-Trump counties supporting a man who they think is unworthy and whose far fuller repudiation they thought was required to cleanse the nation’s soul.
Required reading:
* George Will with overall optimism about the fate of the Republic in the medium and long terms, including that the Supreme Court will not bail out a desperate incumbent.
* Ron Brownstein on the divisions that still ail us and the U.S.
* The Washington Post piece on the same that contains this:
“This is a democracy at full work, but clearly very divided,” said Jim Doyle, a former Democratic governor of Wisconsin. “We are clearly very, very divided by cities and rural, we’re very divided by race. Just look at Wisconsin’s map. And we can’t just be demonizing each other. This is a challenge of leadership that has been building for some time.”
Should the Democratic nominee prevail, Doyle said, “Joe Biden has to rise to the occasion almost to FDR, as a Democrat might say, or to Reagan, as a Republican might say, proportions. Half the country are not horrible, racist, mean-spirited people who are different from everybody else. It can’t be. And roughly half the country voted for Trump.”
Not required reading:
* Blah blah blah the polling was so wrong (No: as in 2016, it is more about the analysis of the polling that was wrong, not the polling, with the lesson being, “Stop putting so much bloody stock in cheaply-made devices that are flawed snapshots, not Nostradamus-quality predictions.”
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THE PANDEMIC GOING FORWARD
Please nix complaining about others not wearing masks and then going to someone’s house “just this once” and not wearing a mask.
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Get the latest happening now and the path forward in DC and around the country from Mark Halperin.
To book Mark to speak to your organization in person or by videoconference send an email inquiry to markhalperintalk@gmail.com