Gas, Groceries and Grandkids
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If you are a Zabar’s shopper, a CAA agent, or a University of Wisconsin student, enjoy these new polls, and let hope spring from now until Tuesday:
Same group, let Chuck tell you what is going to happen:
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer predicted Thursday that Democrats will hold the U.S. Senate, propelled by strong voter turnout to buck a wave of Republican enthusiasm for gaining control of Congress in the midterm elections.
The Democratic leader told The Associated Press he’s confident Democrats will be able to win the battleground states being contested — and potentially pick up Senate seats from Republicans.
“It’s tight,” Schumer said in an interview. “I believe Democrats will hold the Senate and maybe even pick up seats.”
Or believe in the magical, determinative power of “As goes Oprah, so goes America.”
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Then come back to Planet Earth:
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I can’t explain those new Marist polls above, but I can share with you the Washington Post’s lead story:
Democrats across the country scrambled Thursday to bolster candidates in places President Biden carried safely in 2020, the latest sign of panic that they could face major losses in next week’s midterm elections.
Vice President Harris and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton held a joint rally in an effort to rescue New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), who faces a close race in a state Republicans haven’t won in two decades. Biden traveled to New Mexico and Southern California to support vulnerable Democratic incumbents — bypassing Arizona and Nevada, where officials fear he could be a drag on senators in tight races. Biden and Harris plan to spend part of the weekend in Illinois, boosting House candidates in suburban districts that have been trending back toward Republicans since 2020.
As Republicans have focused on inflation and crime to go on offense in Democratic territory over the past month — competing in traditionally blue districts in California, Oregon, New York, Illinois and elsewhere — there’s a growing sense among Democrats that there’s little they can do at this point to combat the combined forces of history and economics.
And this:
In Wisconsin, local Democratic leaders are looking with dismay at a once-close race in the 3rd Congressional District, where Rep. Ron Kind (D) retired, leaving the seat open. GOP candidate Derrick Van Orden, who was filmed outside the U.S. Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, is running against Democrat Brad Pfaff, a state senator.
“We’re looking very, very good,” Van Orden said in a brief interview Tuesday night. He said the main issues in his race have become “gas, groceries and grandkids,” adding that “we’re all worried about the kind of country we’re going to grow up in….”
Some party officials have begun to consider a potential silver lining of a potential drubbing in House races, which are held every two years. Because some of the losses are expected to be in blue states and districts that Biden won handily in 2020, Democrats could have more opportunities for easier pickups in 2024, said one Democratic strategist familiar with House races, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to frankly discuss the state of play.
“Clear path back in 2024,” the strategist said, “if we lose those seats on Tuesday.”
So it is impossible to know exactly how every seemingly competitive race is going to turn out, but if you are headed to a betting parlor, here are my recommendations and forecasts:
* New York, New Hampshire, and Nevada are going to be particularly ugly for the Democrats.
* Republicans are going to lose a few they are currently counting on winning, but they are going to win a good number more that they weren’t counting taking even a fortnight ago.
* Some gubernatorial candidates of both parties in otherwise competitive states are going to win by staggering margins.
* Republicans will take control of the Senate, the House by at least +24, and the preponderance of marquee gubernatorial contests.
* Some key races will not have clear winners by Wednesday morning, but that will not dictate control of either chamber or the overall message of the night before.
* Joe Biden will not go galloping to the center after this.
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2022 ESSENTIAL READING
* Peggy Noonan expects
a very good night for Republicans, with both houses of Congress won and some surprising governorships taken. The wave we are in has been building since the spring and summer of 2020 and the protests and riots sparked by the killing of George Floyd. That period has never been fully appreciated as the time of trauma and disorder it was, with small businesses going up in flames and some downtowns turning into war zones. It was just about that point the Democratic Party made it obvious they’d gone far left on issues of crime and punishment. Then Afghanistan, illegal immigration, inflation and wokeness in the schools. Those things would leave voters turning against a ruling party, and taking from it some of its power. It should be remembered in all the excitement that Congress will still likely be close in both houses, that neither party will have an overwhelming majority. America is still divided….
California Gov. Gavin Newsom has it exactly wrong about his party’s problem right now. He insisted this week that the Democrats’ problem is they got their communications and messaging wrong. “We’re getting crushed on narrative.” No, you’re getting crushed on facts. You’re getting crushed by unpopular policies. The answer is to change them, not how you talk about them. How you communicate your feelings about the facts isn’t the issue—suburban women don’t care about your feelings. They care about real-world things. If you don’t understand this you won’t be able to dig your way out.
* Andrew Cline makes a case the Blues won’t want to hear about why the Republican’s Granite State Senate nominee has caught up:
Mr. Bolduc is more aligned with a majority of New Hampshire voters on the issues. He supports cutting federal spending and taxes, increasing domestic energy production, controlling the border, protecting Second Amendment rights and limiting foreign military engagements. He talks about inflation and energy prices constantly. Reluctant to draw attention to her voting record, Ms. Hassan relentlessly attacks Mr. Bolduc on abortion and Social Security. Whenever she mentions the Democratic Party, it’s to say that she stood up to it on some small, forgotten bill.
In the first major election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the debate over abortion rights has not emerged as a political silver bullet for Democrats, who have largely abandoned hopes that a surge of voter outrage over the decision alone would lift them over obstacles they face in the midterms.
After spending hundreds of millions of campaign dollars on abortion messages — nearly $415 million on ads alone — Democrats have found the impact to be uneven. While support for abortion access is driving the party’s most loyal voters, it does not appear to be outweighing economic concerns for pivotal swing voters.
* Marc Thiessen, speaking for the non-MAGA wing of the Republican Party:
It’s possible that Tuesday will see a red wave so powerful that it will sweep all these Republicans into office. But if Republicans fall short, it will be because Trump chose weak candidates who needed massive outside support — and then failed to support them. If the GOP does take back the Senate, it will be because McConnell-aligned PACs saved Trump’s nominees — something they should remember when they take their oaths on Jan. 3.
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2024/2028/2032 ESSENTIAL READING
* The Wall Street Journal news side gets it right: Gavin Newsom is not nearly as monolithically liberal as Sean Hannity would like you to believe, which has Golden State and national implications.
* Ron DeSantis is a fundraising beast, per Politico, which, if and when he runs for president, is going to be a cruel reality to be faced by his intraparty rivals, who will not be able to match him in bundled hard dollars or earned media.
Now, a question for the class, which you can answer next week: Who has more capacity and potential to raise money online in small increments: Newsom or DeSantis?
The answer to that question might say more about the medium-term political future of America than literally anything else.