Halperin’s Rules of Washington ®
Today is a day for some of Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® .
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MR. BIDEN’S WILD RIDE
Here are the kinds of headlines swirling about the White House as the week starts:
The polls:
As the midterm election approaches, most Americans say that the economy, inflation and rising gas prices are the most important issues in determining how they will vote for Congress this November, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll….
In the poll, 80% of Americans say that inflation is also an extremely or very important factor in how they will vote and for gas prices, it is 74%.
Joe Biden's approval ratings for his handling of these key issues are all well underwater, suggesting trouble for the president and Democratic candidates ahead of the midterm. Only 37% approve of Biden’s handling of the economic recovery, and even fewer approve of his handling of inflation (28%) and gas prices (27%).
The/a big problem:
“Biden Has ‘Only Bad Options’ for Bringing Down Oil Prices” (New York Times)
The weekahead:
But, most of all, this essential reading Politico story:
PROBLEM:
President Joe Biden and his aides have grown increasingly frustrated by their inability to turn the tide against a cascade of challenges threatening to overwhelm the administration.
Soaring global inflation. Rising fuel prices. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A Supreme Court poised to take away a constitutional right. A potentially resurgent pandemic. A Congress too deadlocked to tackle sweeping gun safety legislation even amid an onslaught of mass shootings….
But first aides need to quell the finger-pointing that’s been erupting internally and the increasing concern over staff shakeups, according to five White House officials and Democrats close to the administration not authorized to publicly discuss internal conversations. They also increasingly are trying to soothe the greatest source of West Wing frustration, coming from behind the Resolute Desk.
The president has expressed exasperation that his poll numbers have sunk below those of Donald Trump, whom Biden routinely refers to in private as “the worst president” in history and an existential threat to the nation’s democracy.
“SOLUTION”:
The plan is to put Biden on the road to highlight progress being made, even incrementally, in meeting the series of tests, with visits this week to California, where he will preside over a summit of Western Hemisphere allies, as well as New Mexico to push for his climate agenda. The administration will also set aside its reluctance to work with “a pariah” nation with hopes to spur oil production. And it plans to sharpen its attacks on Republicans, aiming to paint the GOP as out-of-touch with mainstream America on issues like gun safety and abortion, all while hoping the upcoming Jan. 6 congressional hearings will further color the party as too extremist and dangerous to return to power.
COMEDIC SPIN
Members of Biden’s inner circle, including first lady Jill Biden and the president’s sister, Valerie Biden Owens, have complained that West Wing staff has managed Biden with kid gloves, not putting him on the road more or allowing him to flash more of his genuine, relatable, albeit gaffe-prone self. One person close to the president pushed for more “let Biden be Biden” moments, with the president himself complaining he does not get to interact enough with voters.
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #8
When anonymous White House staffers say (for the 18th time over the course of nearly a year) that the answers to the president’s political problems are more travel and more “let X be X,” you know they actually believe the opposite is true – and won’t execute much differently than they have been.
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #32
When the Dominant Media turns against a Democratic president, recovery (if it happens at all) is both slower and less complete than the expectations of the most pessimistic White House adviser.
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #56
There are reasons why Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton thought Joe Biden should never be president.
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #6
Haley Barbour was right: In politics, good gets better and bad gets worse.
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #44
Presidential interviews with late-night hosts are like Woody Hayes’ view of passing – three things can happen, and two of them are bad.
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THE POLITICS OF GUNS
The Washington Post’s essential read on the state of play in the Senate on gun safety talks contains absolutely no indication of whether a House of Lords deal could pass the House of Representatives, a factor that sources say is key to actually getting a bill signed into law.
Here’s what a WWoN reader says:
The Congress could Federalize the California gun laws. Would that end gun violence? No. It would help
The way to advance gun safety is to not demonize gun owners but try and make it harder for angry young men to get guns. (And reduce the number of angry young men)
We need to work on keeping fathers in homes which will help make angry young men less likely to join gangs, murder and create mayhem.
Here are my suggested talking points to seek common ground.
Start with condemning the criminals. Young men (raised without fathers)
Discuss action to address this problem - policing and initiatives to stabilize families.
Pivot to - in the meantime we need to make it harder for angry young men to get guns, which can magnify the impact of their rage.
(Note - stop saying common sense gun reforms - just say what you want)
How to make it harder? Raise the age to buy guns - require passing a gun safety class/test before you can buy a gun. Magazine capacity restrictions
Start with the California law and water that down till you get something passed.
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #25
In the aftermath of crisis, it is in the interest of both parties to be seen as optimistic about the prospects for successful compromise, a reality that often provides a misleading impression of both how likely a deal is to be struck and how soon it might happen.
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #3
Congress never acts until it absolutely has to -- and sometimes not even then.
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MR. TRUMP’S WILD RIDE
Another story – this time from NBC News – saying Donald Trump might announce he is running for re-election before this November.
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #9
Follow the money.
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #10
A body in motion at 800 mph will remain in motion (and unstoppable) even when acted on by an external force.
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #7
The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing.
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THE JANUARY 6 COMMITTEE
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #4
Substance matters most, but substance without sizzle and expectations management endangers the substance.
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #14
Washington, like nature, abhors a vacuum.
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PUTIN’S INVASION
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #33
Never underestimate the capacity of the American people to demonstrate a limited attention span about anything occurring overseas (or in Canada).
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HOUSE OF SAUD
From that same Politico story:
For nearly a month, Biden and his inner circle have agonized over whether to make a trip to Saudi Arabia, a nation the president deemed a “pariah” after its crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, ordered the murder and dismemberment of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. Biden, for a time, angrily rejected meeting with the crown prince, arguing the presidency “should stand for something,” according to two people with knowledge of his thinking.
But he has recently relented, recognizing a need to push Riyadh for more oil production. Still, the dates for the trip remain fluid, leaving some aides to wonder if the president will change his mind again.
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #8
In analyzing world events, you can almost never go wrong with three words: Oil, oil, oil.
Halperin’s Rules of Washington ® #19
To paraphrase Mike Tyson, every president has a plan to get tough with the Saudis, until they get punched in the face with higher gas prices.
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IN OTHER NEWS…
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* I think it is fair to say that Elon Musk is not super engaged with the concept of The Presumption of Grace:
* Any list like this that has Germany ahead of Thailand is highly suspect, and/but apparently we need to know more about Romanian food:
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