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THE CLIFFHANGERS
1. HOW WILL THE DEBT CEILING GET RESOLVED?
THE MYSTERY: Does Kevin McCarthy have an endgame in mind?
THE DOG THAT ISN’T BARKING (YET): Mitch McConnell.
THE KEY TO THE OUTCOME: The identity of the mystery savior(s), with Politico making a good start on the list.
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME: No default.
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2. WHO WILL BE THE 2024 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE?
THE MYSTERY: How big will the field actually end up being? (There’s an extraordinary library of reading on this matter, all on the same day (!): Karl Rove’s guide to stopping Trump; Jim Geraghty’s plea to Chris Sununu to not run; the New York Times and Politico on the reasons some are hesitating about getting in and why some in the end won’t.)
THE DOG THAT ISN’T BARKING (YET): The possible candidacies of Tim Scott and Glenn Youngkin – either/both of which would almost certainly have more of an impact than those of the other hopefuls mentioned (besides DeSantis).
THE KEY TO THE OUTCOME: Can Trump mow down his rivals as he did in 2016? (His early hits on DeSantis suggest Trump is, at a minimum, rusty or just warming up.)
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME: The over/under of the number of vote-earning candidates Trump needs to win is four (and there will be at least four).
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3. HOW WILL THE BIDEN DOCUMENT PROBE END?
THE MYSTERY: What’s actually in the documents with classified markings – trip schedules or Ukraine intel reports?
THE DOG THAT ISN’T BARKING (YET): The Justice Department’s new special counsel and his theory of the case — and a potential desire to get less chummy with Bob Bauer.
THE KEY TO THE OUTCOME: Does Lisa Monaco have a PR plan to dispose of the Trump and Biden cases that won’t rip the department and the nation apart?
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME: Not clear yet, but read the Washington Post fact checker seeming to demolish the notion that Hunter’s famous Ukraine email came from anything but media reports and the words of Jonathan Turley (typically a Biden skeptic):
It is hard to see how this investigation would yield a solid criminal case absent confirmation that Biden worked off clearly classified material. If so, he showed both intent and knowledge of unlawful possession during prior years. It would also make his categorical denials of any knowledge appear more sinister and incriminating.
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ESSENTIAL READING
* A pair of good news stories for Joe Biden from the Associated Press:
- “Biden approval steady after document discovery: AP-NORC Poll”
- The DNC meeting will be a lovefest of unity (except for Granite Staters).
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CORRECTION: In some editions of Wednesday’s Wide World of News, the headline said “Irishman” when it should have said “Irishmen.” Oh, how I regret that error.