This delightfully surprising picture is worth more than 1,000 words:
That photo, of Bob Woodward fishing with the legendary Barbara Howar in Montauk, New York, is part of an article in the April/May issue of “Garden & Gun,” by contributing editors John Meroney & Patricia Beauchamp.
The pictures and the full piece (“The Last of the Southern Girls”) are both remarkable gifts to Wide World of News readers, taking us into the extraordinary life of the great Ms. Howar, in DC and around the world.
Meroney and Beauchamp call her “a brilliant Washington heroine, a breath of fresh air who got to live the dream and tell people off and do it while being beautiful. Her life and how she succeeded and kept coming back is a balm in today’s culture.”
Even if you have heard of Barbara Howar, the full breath of her life as a Washington fixture and reporter, will likely surprise you.
Make time to read the piece by COB today, while you navigate a very busy and important news cycle.
What I am here to do today is to steel you for possible surprises, so your “Garden & Gun” romp through history is the only thing that takes you aback.
In other words, I unleash my inner Alvin Toffler in this edition, to help you avoid any Future Shock.
I’m not predicting any of these things will happen – or rooting for them – just warning you about what could be in the cards in our shared future.
So come with me on a Nostradamusian romp into the impending universe.
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COULD HAPPEN: The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan proves to be a brilliant move of risk management, as the country holds together and American forces need not be rushed back.
First, to lay a foundation, check out Ross Douthat’s absolutely crackerjack essential read on how Joe Biden is pursuing much of the Trump agenda (with different packaging and with some key differences, to be sure).
Then add in the best of the Washington Post’s big package of pieces on Mr. Biden’s expected Wednesday announcement on the pullback, which puts it in the context of the administration’s overall foreign policy.
Then know that the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal editorial boards are arm-in-arm as part of the Establishment’s forever-war-boosting chorus.
Is this one the Post?
Mr. Biden has chosen the easy way out of Afghanistan, but the consequences are likely to be ugly.
Or is this one the Post?
The White House announced Tuesday that President Biden plans to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan by Sept. 11. The symbolic but arbitrary date shows the decision is driven less by facts on the ground than a political desire that is also a strategic gamble. History suggests U.S. interests will suffer.
Impossible to tell!
Obviously the withdrawal involves a big bet, but two of our finest national security writers lean into the facts on the ground in theater and the facts at home to expose the thinking behind Mr. Biden’s gambit.
Here’s the well-wired David Ignatius, who reminds those of you who might forget that a lot of U.S. assets will remain as a hedge:
Biden decided this week that Afghanistan’s fate, in the end, will be determined by its people. Those who suspect that the country will quickly tumble back into the Middle Ages and a primitive version of Islam are wrong, I suspect. The years of war have modernized Afghanistan. It’s now a richer, more urban country, connected by modern communications. People who gained their freedom in the two decades under a U.S. umbrella won’t give it up easily.
The real test of Biden’s policy is whether the core national interest he has embraced — of limiting U.S. involvement in Afghanistan to preventing another 9/11-type attack on the homeland — can be achieved without U.S. troops on the ground.
Officials have been arguing this question back and forth for weeks. Can the CIA maintain a clandestine force in Afghanistan that’s strong enough to operate against al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups? Will drones be effective, if they must now be based in the Persian Gulf, with long flight times to Afghanistan and much shorter periods over potential target areas? We don’t know the answers. Biden is rolling the dice.
And, finally, here is The Other David (Sanger, of the New York Times), making it clear that the president wants to shift his focus elsewhere, both at home and abroad:
In the end, the argument that won the day is that the future of Kenosha is more important than defending Kabul. And if Mr. Biden can truly focus the country on far bigger strategic challenges — in space and cyberspace, against declining powers like Russia and rising ones like China — he will have finally moved the country out of its post-9/11 fixation, where counterterrorism overrode every other foreign policy and domestic imperative.
That would be a real change in the way Americans think about the purpose of the country’s influence and power, and the nature of national security.
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COULD HAPPEN: Vice President Harris steps up into a big role in successfully addressing the Central American piece of the immigration challenge/crisis.
With a 10:00am ET virtual roundtable meeting on her Northern Triangle portfolio, the VP takes her first public step on galvanizing change, following on the administration’s announcement of military cooperation in the region to stop the northern flow of humanity.
We are now seeing public action that follows on more private diplomacy than has been reported so far.
A dramatic reduction in the trendlines of folks coming over the border, relieving strain on the system and taking the story off of the front pages is now a real possibility.
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COULD HAPPEN: Derek Chauvin’s trial ends with a result that disappoints many in the community and around the country but there is no significant violence.
This is a double hypothetical but one that could occur.
As I have written before, and as the defense continues through the week, it is clear that most of the media coverage has presented a distorted view of how likely a murder conviction is. At the same time, it is wrong to assume that an outcome that falls short of that murder conviction will invariably lead to rioting and clashes with law enforcement. From the Biden administration on down and into the civic realm, there are efforts to limit the prospect of mayhem — and the aftermath of the shooting of Daunte Wright might have served as a pressure relief valve and (somewhat) dry run.
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COULD HAPPEN: Détente with China, built around a secret, thoughtful plan devised by Tony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, and others to deploy a wok-filled mélange of carrots and sticks.
Brahmin Carrot:
U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said the Biden administration won’t compromise with China on economic issues or human rights in its attempts to negotiate a deal to address climate change.
Mr. Kerry, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, said his team is committed to finding ways to force China to be accountable for pledges it makes in continuing negotiations to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change.
An industrial powerhouse, China is the world’s biggest source of greenhouse gases. Mr. Kerry said satellites and other new technology will allow the U.S. to monitor national emissions around the globe, and noted that European countries have discussed levying a special tax on imported goods based on emissions from their production.
“You need accountability,” Mr. Kerry said in his office at State Department headquarters. “We will have enormous visibility, and that visibility has been very effective at creating accountability.”
Bipartisan stick:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Former U.S. Senator Chris Dodd and former Deputy Secretaries of State Richard Armitage and James Steinberg headed to Taiwan on Tuesday at President Joe Biden’s request, in what a White House official called a “personal signal” of the president’s commitment to the Chinese-claimed island and its democracy.
China is a regional military bully with a desire to be treated like a superpower (and to clean up its domestic environment).
The Middle Kingdom wants to be in the middle of things, and this flurry of activity by Team Biden promises a level of multifaceted engagement that reflects the soft carroty talk/big stick worldview of Blinken/Sullivan.
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COULD HAPPEN: Cold War enemies slip into a 21st century hot war as Putin makes a last gasp to be relevant.
MOSCOW, April 13 (Reuters) - Russia on Tuesday called the United States an adversary and told U.S. warships to stay well away from Crimea "for their own good," calling their deployment in the Black Sea a provocation designed to test Russian nerves….
"The United States is our adversary and does everything it can to undermine Russia's position on the world stage," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was cited as saying by Russian news agencies…
Russia confirmed on Tuesday it was continuing to move 15 navy vessels to the Black Sea from the Caspian Sea to take part in drills.
Let’s hope cool heads prevail but Team Biden is clearly not going to accept Putin’s “what’s mine is mine and what’s yours we will discuss” posture.
And as Politico reports:
The Biden administration is preparing a new round of penalties that it could announce as soon as this week, according to a person familiar with the internal deliberations, who requested anonymity to disclose sensitive discussions. The steps could include imposing sanctions on Russian intelligence agencies and a new round of ejections of Russian diplomats, the person said….
The Biden administration is preparing a new round of penalties that it could announce as soon as this week, according to a person familiar with the internal deliberations, who requested anonymity to disclose sensitive discussions. The steps could include imposing sanctions on Russian intelligence agencies and a new round of ejections of Russian diplomats, the person said.
If Biden’s offer in his Tuesday telephone call with Putin to hold a summit in a third country leads to a meeting, maybe tensions can be lowered. But Biden would go into such a session determined to make it clear to the former spymaster that he sees his soul and doesn’t like what is in there – which could take a summit from accord to acrimony in a Moscow minute.
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COULD HAPPEN: The Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause is a short-term blip that actually strengthens distribution and belief in the system.
Certainly, the Biden administration didn’t do everything right in reaction to the announcement on Tuesday, but, in reality, they did a LOT right.
Politico has a nice summary of the all-hands-on-deck mobilization:
Officials spent Tuesday reassuring states wrestling with recent Covid infection spikes that their overall vaccination operation wouldn’t be slowed. They fielded questions about how to rebook tens of thousands of vaccine appointments and what it meant for overall vaccine supply. Centers for Disease Control officials briefed members of congressional committees and White House senior health officials held a call with public health partners as well as a group of Black doctors. By the evening, the Covid response team had organized a call with the Community Corps, leaders from across the country working on vaccine hesitancy in their local communities. There were more than 1,800 participants.
If the science confirms low risk, the medical community figures out how to mitigate the risk even further, and the communication continues, we could see a continued acceleration of the overall vaccine rates by early next week, with a trial run on what eventually had to happen – that the system writ large processes the reality of cost/benefit analysis.
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COULD HAPPEN: Andrew Yang bests a very crowded field to win the Gotham City mayoral race in a landslide.
There are many reasons why this could happen, the big news on Page Six notwithstanding:
It’s the “Empire State of Mind” collaboration New Yorkers didn’t see coming.
Hip-hop icons Jay-Z, Nas and Diddy are lending their voices to city politics for the first time — endorsing Ray McGuire for New York City mayor. The rappers appeared on a Zoom call with McGuire, Angie Martinez and Steve Stoute to discuss their mayoral candidate’s “inclusive comeback” plan for the city.
“When New York’s the most vibrant, It was because it was a destination for people to come there and create,” Jay-Z said.
Yang is cruising towards the day of the Democratic primary with the best polling, highest name ID, lots of financial backing, and a very nimble campaign against a field that is, truth be told, pretty weak overall.
Rather than being picked apart by his increasingly desperate rivals, Yang might just race through the tape.
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COULD HAPPEN: Matt Gaetz could end up unindicted and serve indefinitely in Congress.
Joel Greenberg might be singing like a robin and Gaetz might have hobnobbed in the Bahamas, but that doesn’t mean the Justice Department will find any criminal charges to bring.
And the Gentleman from Florida lives by the Tao of Kelly Clarkson:
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