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FISCAL POSTURING
ITEM:
White House officials are leaving the door open to a compromise with House Republicans on government spending that also resolves the impasse over the federal debt ceiling — a strategy that could allow both parties to claim victory while averting a national economic catastrophe.
President Biden has been adamant that he will not acquiesce to Republicans’ proposed spending cuts to secure their support to raise the debt limit, arguing that he cannot reward the GOP for taking the U.S. economy hostage. But Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has been equally adamant that the House won’t lift the debt limit without securing cuts. One way out of this logjam — widely discussed on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue — would be reaching an agreement that each party then defines differently, with Biden claiming he gave up nothing for the debt limit hike and McCarthy claiming he won concessions on spending.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: The other side needs to compromise or this game of chicken will not end well.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: Forget the 14th Amendment, the gazillion dollar coin, and the discharge petition – those are all mirage sideshows that, ironically, will only spook markets more and undermine the ability of the principals to build the only element that will solve the crisis, which is genuine trust between Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy. Until and unless the two men achieve that, even Mitch McConnell will not be able to find a rabbit and a hat. And/but even if the president and the speaker can somehow find a way to work in mutual accord, there is still this:
“Even in the best-case scenario, where we get the ‘wink-wink, nudge-nudge’ two-track approach everyone is hoping for, even within that narrow structure you’re still incredibly far apart,” said Tobin Marcus, a former Biden policy adviser now at Evercore ISI, an investment advisory firm. “Even if everyone agrees to play this game, they’re hundreds of billions of dollars apart.”
All of which is to say, we are still looking at an interim deal that raises the debt ceiling through December, in exchange for something like permitting reform and a handshake spending outline – and then hoping for some sort of two-track Christmas miracle, sealed by “allies” Biden and McCarthy. Which is why all of this machismo on both sides in advance of the meeting next week is so dangerous.
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BORDERING
ITEM:
President Biden is sending 1,500 active-duty troops to the southern border, while cities across the country are declaring states of emergency and asking for federal support as the country prepares for a surge of migration expected to accompany the lifting of Title 42 border restrictions next week.
A large number of migrants have already been illegally entering El Paso, Texas, in recent days. Hundreds unable to find spots in shelters gathered in the past few days around downtown churches in the border city looking for help, according to photos and videos of the scene.
Mario D’Agostino, a deputy city manager, said there are an estimated 35,000 migrants in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico—across the Rio Grande from El Paso—believed to be waiting to cross into the U.S.
ITEM:
U.S. and Mexican officials have agreed on new immigration policies meant to deter illegal border crossings while also opening up other pathways ahead of an expected increase in migrants following the end of pandemic restrictions next week.
Homeland Security adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall spent Tuesday meeting with Mexico President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and other top officials, emerging with a five-point plan, according to statements from both nations.
Under the agreement, Mexico will continue to accept migrants from Venezuela, Haiti, Cuba and Nicaragua who are turned away at the border, and up to 100,000 individuals from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador who have family in the U.S. will be eligible to live and work there.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: The White House has no idea what it is doing – this is all just experimental performance art.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: As on the debt ceiling battle, the White House can lose the public if they just keep the Dominant Media and the Hill Democrats largely on their side. Team Biden actually has a better chance to do that on immigration than on the debt ceiling. Unless of course the spring numbers just explode beyond the previous explosion levels.
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BIDEN DERANGEMENT SYNDROMING
ITEM: Jim Geraghty is disturbed by the president’s lack of press conferences, Jonathan Turley is upset about the Blinken-Hunter relationship, the New York Post is distressed by the lack of acknowledgement of a granddaughter, on and on and on.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: How can we have a supremely unethical man in the White House for four more years?
What you should say on your morning Zoom: This might be the Democrats’ biggest 2024 advantage: They’ve learned how to channel Trump Derangement Syndrome into unity and unity of purpose (See the essential reading Bloomberg story on how jacked up Blue bundlers are about running against Trump…), while Republicans are so unhinged over thirty-one different Biden “scandals” (and The Veep) that they are unlikely to be able to focus on, say, the economy.
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DEBATING ABOUT DEBATING
ITEMS: Team Trump semi-openly muses about their man skipping the first two RNC nomination debates, while the national party tries to blow up the Commission on Presidential Debates, leaving the 2023-2024 event schedule very much up in the air.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: Trump won’t be able to resist the lure of the big top.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: One of the great underappreciated strengths Trump is bringing to the whole shootin’ match against DeSantis, Biden, and the entire cavalcade of “enemies” before him is experience. The Donald is now able to marry up his extraordinary human intelligence with the benefits of having run twice before, which allows him to understand the dynamics and rhythms of the whole process in a way that the Sunshine State topper cannot possibly do. Add in Trump’s obsession with leverage and holding high cards – and his shameless willingness to say or do anything he sees as giving him an edge – and we are looking at a lot of hurry-up-and-wait-on-Trump-to-decide-and-redecide on the debates (and lots of other stuff). A “normal” candidate would agonize over skipping the debates and invariably chicken out in the end, seeing such a gambit as too dangerous. Trump will agonize in his own way, but he is comfortable taking risks outside the norm. He might show up (after extracting as many concessions as possible), but he really might not.
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CLOSING
ITEM:
Nordstrom is set to close both of its stores in downtown San Francisco.
The department store chain said the San Francisco Centre store is slated to close at the end of August and the Market Street Rack store will close up shop after business on July 1. Both stores are located next to each other on Market Street.
"Decisions like this are never easy, and this one has been especially difficult," Jamie Nordstrom, Chief Stores Officer at Nordstrom, said in a statement. "We've spent more than 35 years serving customers in downtown San Francisco, building relationships with them and investing in the local community. But as many of you know, the dynamics of the downtown San Francisco market have changed dramatically over the past several years, impacting customer foot traffic to our stores and our ability to operate successfully."
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: Is it even safe enough to go to Zuni Café to get the chicken anymore?
What you should say on your morning Zoom: This is about more than some store closings. The mayor, the governor, and the people of the Bay Area need to come together and restore basic civic order. Seriously, enough is enough.
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KINGING
ITEM:
What that loudmouth will ask on your morning Zoom: Who can stay up that late?
What you should say on your morning Zoom: The Warriors need an AD solution, but if they overcorrect for the next match, LeBron could pop big and they could find themselves down 2-0, which would be just fine with ½ of the residents of Nav Obvs.
