This morning at 10am, I will join Michael Smerconish on SiriusXM for our weekly chat about the wide world of news.
I always write the Wednesday edition of the newsletter knowing that it effectively serves as show prep for Michael, who regularly builds our segment together around the contents of WWoN, as a clear signpost of what’s on my mind and in my reporter’s notebook.
So, as a close student of Michael’s interests, I typically write the pre-program edition with an eye on what will strike the host’s fancy, which leans heavily into 2024, putting that stuff at the top o’ the news that day.
So let’s make today’s edition explicitly explicit.
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TO: Mr. Michael Smerconish
FROM: Mark Halperin
DATE: 5/17/23
RE: show prep
1. Trump versus DeSantis (a/k/a “King Kong versus Godzilla”)
Both high commands have data and talking points they can flaunt to make the case that their side is on the upswing.
For Trump:
* The post--E. Jean Carroll-verdict polling nationally and in the states suggest the frontrunner’s standing within the GOP has not been visibly hurt, including in New York (where the case got such intense coverage) or with women.
* The Trump-backed candidate in the Kentucky gubernatorial primary galloped to an easy victory, then declared “the Trump culture of winning is alive and well in Kentucky!,” allowing a top Mar-a-Lago strategist to take several compacted pointed shots at Team DeSantis:
* The reaction to the Durham report on the right included rallying around Trump by DeSantis, other 2024 rivals, the Wall Street Journal ed board, Bill Barr, and more.
The list of DeSantis points is longer, in part because the media wants a contest, in part because of the afterglow from Saturday’s Iowa romp, and in part because Team DeSantis is putting pieces and points on the board as it gears up for their horse to officially enter the race:
* Most importantly for the Sunshine State topper, the politico-media zeitgeist is back to thinking of the nomination contest as a clear two-person race. This is so important for DeSantis to allow him to consolidate around just him all the anti-Trump energy in the Dominant Media, conservative media, and in the party. The more diffuse that energy is, the harder it will be for DeSantis to win.
* Although abortion is a fraught issue for both men in both the nomination fight and a potential general election, DeSantis went more explicitly on offense against Trump on Tuesday than he has on pretty much any issue so far, as per the Associated Press:
Gov. Ron DeSantis criticized Donald Trump on Tuesday for implying Florida’s new six-week abortion ban is “too harsh,” stepping up his attacks on the former president as he prepares to challenge him for the 2024 Republican nomination.
DeSantis was responding to a question about Trump’s comments in an article published Monday by The Messenger about the six-week ban the Florida governor recently signed into law. “Many people within the pro-life movement feel that that was too harsh,” Trump told the online outlet.
DeSantis contended the law has widespread support among opponents of abortion and noted the former president didn’t say what limits he would back on the procedure.
“Protecting an unborn child when there’s a detectable heartbeat is something that almost 99% of pro-lifers support,” DeSantis said at a news conference in Florida, taking questions after he signed a measure to combat human trafficking.
“As a Florida resident, you know, he didn’t give an answer about, ‘Would you have signed the heartbeat bill that Florida did, that had all the exceptions that people talk about?’” DeSantis added.
This aggressive (if partial…) move was key to demonstrating to various audiences (impatient reporters, worried donors, etc.) that the Florida governor is prepared to slap back hard at his rival, with a knowledge of detail and capacity to execute that will be vital on the debate stage.
* DeSantis also aggressively announced he is sending Florida forces to the Mexican border, the symbolism around which is too obvious to type here.
* With the announcement of a bevy of New Hampshire legislative endorsements and the “leaking” of this trip to Fox News….
…. Team DeSantis is reminding everyone of their theory of the case of the way to win – taking on Trump in first-in-the-nation Iowa and New Hampshire and winning a one-two-punch knockout blow before Valentine’s Day.
* All of this makes it “safe” again for anti-Trump forces and attention-seeking pundits to declare that DeSantis can beat the frontrunner.
See, for instance, Piers Morgan’s column, in which he inauspiciously declares:
When it comes to working out what’s really happening in American politics, I find it educational to watch The View.
Nonetheless, Piers suggests that the challenger is going to prove to be a victorious Muhammad Ali over Trump’s tired, old George Foreman:
Very soon, I predict Ron DeSantis is going to announce he’s running, spring off the ropes, and start swinging at Donald Trump, probably with the words, “That all you got, Donald?”
It will make the Rumble in the Jungle look like a tea party.
And my money’s on DeSantis knocking him out.
What’s coming up in King Kong versus Godzilla?
* We need to see the messaging, technical competence, fundraising boost/boom, and surprises around the actual DeSantis for President announcement – and if it has an impact on the polls.
* Expect some more oppo attacks from a certain South Florida club, aimed at the candidate himself as well as at least one key adviser. To borrow the phrase from Mr. Trump himself, this is going to be some nasty stuff.
* The formal debates are going to be key, including what the RNC participating rules are, the cadence of the events, and, of course, if Trump shows up or not. At this point, DeSantis almost certainly needs to share the stage with the frontrunner (and smote him) to become the eventual nominee.
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2. Who is the current leading contender to be The Third Man or Woman?
Hands down it is Tim Scott.
That is where most of the anti-Trump Establishment is looking, especially the elected officials, donors, and conservative media.
It is going to be interesting to see what kind of live and other coverage Scott’s expected formal entry into the race receives, especially compared to what DeSantis will garner.
What to watch for with Scott:
* Does he do any non-conservative media around his launch?
* Can he get into third place in the polling by July 4? (Hard to argue you are the Third Man if you aren’t in third place before the debates start…)
* Do any of his rivals come after him?
* Does Trump try to build him up to transfer market share from DeSantis?
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3. How is Joe Biden’s presidential campaign doing?
* Right now, it is mostly wrapped up in the debt ceiling talks, and nobody knows how those are going or will go!
* One of Joe Biden’s best friends now is the continued virtually complete Dominant Media blackballing/blackout of RFK, which the royal upstart has not shown the ability to circumvent or leverage.
* Watch closely health and performance issues around Dianne Feinstein (read this) and John Fetterman (watch this), both of which could play into doubts about Biden on his weak point.
* Biden remains the most likely Democratic nominee and most likely person to win in November of 2024, but his odds are distinctly lower than most Blues seem to think.
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4. As for those debt ceiling/not-debt ceiling talks….
* The most promising sign: some rhetoric on both sides to the contrary, both the congressional progressives and the congressional MAGAs are actually publicly and privately giving their principals the running room needed to cut a deal. There will be lots of twists and turns, but Kevin McCarthy and Joe Biden (backed by Schumer and Jeffries) have more than a fighting chance to go into their respective rooms when/if the moment comes and emerge with the needed votes after telling their forces that they struck the best deal they could – and have lived to fight another day for more wins.
Watch closely the trade off between the length of the debt ceiling raise and the length of the spending caps.
* The least promising signs:
a. They aren’t anywhere close to a deal on anything, let alone everything.
b. The absence of a clear X moment paradoxically reduces the pressure for a deal.
c. This Paul Krugman take is all too representative of a certain mindset on both sides that also lessens the pressure to strike a deal:
I have no idea what happens next. I think there’s a real possibility that Biden officials will in the end be forced by sheer Republican intransigence to adopt unconventional methods after all — a task that will be made much harder by the fact that those same officials have spent months trash-talking the approaches they may need to follow.
But I don’t see any way to regard this whole episode as anything but a disastrous failure to face up to the reality of an opposition party controlled by extremists.
Honestly, right now, I don’t know when we will know more, let alone the outcome, but I’m still betting against default.
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5. The NBA
* Game 1 of Boston versus Miami is at 830pm ET tonight.
* Poor Doc Rivers.
* The Spurs won the Victor Wembanyama lottery, which bodes well in the wake of their history picking David Robinson and Tim Duncan previously when they went first.
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6. Oh, the Durham report.
While the Wall Street Journal ed board predictably defends Durham, and the New York Times has not one but two news stories trashing Durham (including one with this incredible sentence: “The Democrats also note that Facebook and Twitter decided to censor or limit the sharing of a New York Post article about the laptop’s contents five days before the letter’s publication in Politico.”), Holman Jenkins balls the whole thing up into one here-is-what-the-Gang-of-500-thinks-about-everything paragraph:
Mr. Biden might yet drop out of the race. Mr. Trump’s path to the nomination might still be interrupted by a DeSantis or Tim Scott. But the press should stop kidding itself about its own role. In the classic definition of insanity, its effort to keep Mr. Trump out of the White House by sacrificing its own standards of journalistic integrity and truth telling when it comes to Mr. Biden, Mrs. Clinton, the Russia hoax, etc., is what will put Mr. Trump back in the White House.
Among Wide World of News readers, there are many views of all this, including, at one pole, some who believe a vote for Trump in 2024 is a vote for fascism, and some whose point of view echoes this reader:
I’ve heard many people ask/state “how can anyone vote for Trump?”
you only have to look at these recent stories …
Watergate is believed to be the gold standard of government abuses
Woodward/Bernstein earn life changing accolades for their coverage
a hotel break-in to try and bug an opponent and the following cover-up
and that is just chicken shit compared to what has just come out
51 intelligence officers magically produce a memo exonerating Hunter Biden (and all the dirt that would follow) and his laptop as Russian disinformation …. right before a tight election
we are talking the top of the top in the intelligence world
it must be true
nope - another attempt to influence an election
Media ….. crickets
for years, we were bombarded with this Russia collusion story (Rachel Maddow/Adam Schiff, you need to come clean)
Trump is a Russian stooge, oh no
nope - just another attempt to get rid of Trump by any means necessary …. and now we know Obama/Clinton had their fingerprints all over it
they even knowingly used false information to spy on people close to Trump via the fisa process
Media ….. crickets
i won’t even mention the Biden family receiving millions from other countries without being able to provide reasons for these payments
Media …. crickets
how can we go from Woodward/Bernstein amazing research of Watergate to …. crickets?
how can we ever claim to have fair elections?
when honest people actually think about these revelations, it is shockingly damaging to our country
and …… crickets
where are the new bipartisan Woodward/Bernsteins?
and i know it is not them as they have become 2 of the biggest crickets
it is going to take a brave Dem/Media elite member to step forward and condemn the deep state antics before we can move beyond Trump
btw, Brennan and Clapper also deserve major throat punches ….. 2 very scummy men lying through their teeth
This whole thing right now is more wide open than a Denny’s at 3am….
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