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I’ve made a career going against the politico-media Conventional Wisdom, but only doing so when it is the wise position to take.
Now that the CW is firmly where my sense of things has been for some time (Trump’s nomination is likely inevitable and DeSantis might well not be up to the task of stopping him and no other Republican hopeful has a realistic chance to topple King Kong and Godzilla), let me remind everyone that there is a contrary view that is (still) perfectly reasonable.
Trump is not the inevitable Republican nominee.
First, let’s review where the CW is on this day, as framed by a new poll and a seminal Washington Post story.
Here’s the heart of the poll, from Fox News:
Yes, national polls are not as indicative of where things will go as polls in the early voting states are, and, yes, polls now are not polls after Christmas.
But Trump is way ahead and DeSantis, the only prospect who regularly gets over double digits, no matter who is included in a survey, has faded. And, as I’ve said many times, DeSantis is going to have some ugly days ahead in the news flow no matter what.
Now, that Washington Post story, which is framed thusly:
GOP donors open to other Trump challengers as DeSantis tries to find footing
Interviews show the desire for a backup option in 2024 has intensified amid questions about the Florida governor.
Typically a “candidate” actually has to be an official candidate for the donors to start to freak out.
And it isn’t just the donors; activists, lobbyists, elected officials and others who are part of the powerful and/but panicked “Never Again Trump” coalition are also shopping for some insurance in case DeSantis has a jaw with more glass than Milhouse Mussolini Van Houten’s spectacles.
What is problematic/frightening for those seeking an alternative to the Trump Alternative is that there are anywhere from a half dozen to a dozen reasonable guesses as to who might be up to the task – and, from the vantage point of the moment, THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK THAT ANY OF THEM IS UP TO THE TASK.
Could it be Tim Scott? Nikki Haley? Chris Christie? Glenn Youngkin? Chris Sununu? Mike Pompeo? Mike Pence? ETC, ETC, ETC, to quote the pundit Yul Brynner.
I get why each of those fine folks have supporters who email and text and call me explaining the path to the nomination for their favored pony.
But history, metrics, commonsense, and reportage would not guide us today to say with confidence that any of those folks could topple the Top 2.
So, back to our central question: What could stop Trump?
I’ve done lists like this before, but here’s my current version.
Please note that it could (and likely would) require some combination of at least two and as many as six of these to keep Trump from gaining his party’s nomination for the third time.
1. An indictment with such teeth, proof, and bite that even Trump loyalists say it is unfathomable that he could be the commander-in-chief again. An offense so heinous and so well-documented that it fills his elite backers and rank-and-file MAGAers with disgust. Not impossible.
2. An obese man in his mid-70s could pass away or become incapacitated. Not impossible.
3. Trump could fulfill the prediction made repeatedly by many of the smartest Republicans I know and end up not running. Not impossible.
4. As soon as the summer FEC reports, we could learn that Trump’s fundraising mojo with small donors and bundlers has rotted and atrophied, which would give him far less money than he was planning on to run a national campaign – and would be a sign of diminished support where it matters most. Not impossible.
5. The DeSantis Super PAC, learning the lessons of Jeb ’16 and accepting the reality that TV advertising rates for such organizations are prohibitively expensive, could build a grassroots operation driven by metrics, analytics, digital creatively, and a focus on the early voting states, backed by tens of millions of dollars (and maybe more) that is the most efficient Super PAC machine of all time in terms of actually helping a favored candidate win. DeSantis has already placed some of his top talent in this operation. Not impossible.
6. DeSantis himself could turn out to be a beast of a candidate, who gets up every day, asks himself what the twenty things he MUST personally do in the next twenty-four hours to be victorious, and then do all twenty. Not impossible.
7. Someone – Tim Scott or Chris Christie come to mind – could turn out to be that beast. Not impossible.
8. The Republican establishment (yes, it still exists) could develop and execute a plan to Stop Trump, a plan that can be conceived at Tosca, but must be carried out across America, with a lot of money, a focus on the real lives of real people, and driven by polling that is of POS quality. This effort would require a high level of coordination, all carefully lawyered, that would create a Super Friends coalition of Koch, McConnell, Bushies, Romney, the U.S. Chamber, Senor, the commentariat, the Club for Growth, and about 100 other key players. Probably impossible.
9. Iowa and New Hampshire voters could simply decide come early 2024 that they want someone else, the Trump hold on his movement be darned. Not impossible.
10. Something about Melania or/and a Martian invasion that scrambles the deck. Not impossible.
There you have it.
Trump might not be the nominee, despite the current polling and DeSantis in the barrel and the manifest weakness of the mythical “strong Republican bench.”
But he probably will be.
To be continued….
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ESSENTIAL READING
* This National Journal story on Trump-DeSantis polling is very solid and reinforces the notion that TRUMP IS WAY AHEAD NOW:
This year’s Republican primary electorate isn’t likely to be as unstable as 2012’s, simply because Trump commands a solid one-third to one-half of Republicans in multicandidate polls. The 2024 primaries are likely to look more like 2016, since the biggest question is, “Can anyone beat Trump?”
That question is driving coverage and polling, and most reporters and political outlets are looking for a competitive story to tell. Trump vs. DeSantis gets clicks. It’s boring to say repeatedly that Trump is the front-runner and DeSantis might or might not be able to overcome him. It’s much more attention-grabbing to say, "Trump leads. No, wait! DeSantis leads. No, wait! Back to Trump," and to continue that pattern, getting clicks based on people’s hopes (or fears) that one or the other will end up the nominee.
This is where the media industry and the polling industry work together to create a toxic environment. Both need attention in order to function, because eyeballs and reputation equate to revenue. They feed off the emotions of those who are plugged into politics, and hope to gain some clicks among those who aren’t, by creating a narrative of a dynamic, shifting race. And in part, that’s true. We’re still more than nine months out from the first votes. We don’t have a full slate of candidates yet. Big-ticket donors are still figuring out who is their best bet. If the donor class doesn’t fully know yet, how do we expect Joe Six Pack who happens to answer a poll to know?
* The New York Times reports that DeSantis plans to hit Trump from the right on crime when the time comes.
* The Associated Press does a smart job explaining how Trump’s frequent policy videos might be having an impact the Dominant Media largely misses.
* I remain on a mission to get all of you to read up on Iowa basketball superstar Caitlin Clark. The great Rick Reilly does a fine job of explaining just how awesome she is.
* Karl Rove uses his Wall Street Journal column to masterfully articulate all the reasons he and Joe Biden support backing the Ukrainians as American truly first, without mentioning Trump or DeSantis. Maybe Team Biden should have Rove make a guest appearance in the briefing room….