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Is Ron DeSantis the kind of top-shelf presidential campaign trail performer and likeable communicator who generally wins the White House?
As I wrote yesterday about Donald Trump’s CPAC address, one high-profile speech is a single data point, not conclusive evidence.
So take my take on the Sunshine State topper’s Sunday afternoon remarks at the Reagan library as a snapshot in time.
But it is a photo taken with a Leica Q2 Digital Camera, not an old Samsung phone.
If DeSantis can’t get it up politically for a speech at that august venue, it isn’t clear what he is waiting for. No matter where else he speaks in 2023 (the Detroit Economic Club, American Enterprise Institute, St. Anselm College, the Iowa State Fair), there will arguably be no location more symbolically resonant than the Simi Valley citadel where DeSantis spoke this weekend.
It might have been an even more important moment than his expected formal announcement speech.
As readers of this newsletter know, in the upper reaches of the Republican Party, even among some sharpies who desperately want DeSantis to be the nominee, there is a view that the man on a three-year rocket ride is personally odd/diffident, uncomfortable with retail politics, not a great speaker, and without humor, nuance, or genuine emotion when it comes to giving speeches, doing interviews, or talking to voters (or donors).
You can watch the full speech here, starting at about the 8-minute mark.
Overall, if you watch the whole thing, look for moments of writing or delivery that seem elevated beyond what one might throw off at a routine Kissimmee photo op; for anything surprising or delightful; for anything that makes you stop short and say, That man has a true sweeping vision for what this nation needs!
You will notice that from start to finish, DeSantis acts like, since all of his audience knows him from Fox News, that he doesn’t have to introduce his bio or explain how his bio informs his vision for the nation and policy. Like, he doesn’t do that thing that people running for president for the first time generally do.
For those of you who don’t have time to watch the whole cliché-filled and Fox-News-greatest-hits speech, here are the three moments I recommend to you:
A. 8:50 to 9:45: Note the comedy styling of Ron DeSantis as he blandly tells a joke older than Joe Biden and Donald Trump combined.
B. 52:25 to 53:32: See how you rate DeSantis’ capacity to end his remarks on a stirring and uplifting note.
C. 53:40 to the VERY end: Watch how DeSantis exits and listen to what the announcer says.
The Florida governor did not spend time mingling with members of the crowd and did not take questions from the media in California.
Many (but not all) Reagan library speakers take questions from the audience, and/but it is not the least bit surprising that DeSantis did not.
Look, he has his rap down (Florida is where woke goes to die!), and check out the essential reading New York Times story about the Sunshine State’s legislative session that gets underway this week, at which King Ron will pass a bunch of base-pleasing new stuff.
Can DeSantis win the nomination if his national stage performance level is on par with what he produced on Sunday?
Maybe.
But there are reasons to doubt that.
Just as there are reasons to doubt that the New York Post’s claiming in an editorial that polls consistently show DeSantis doing better against Biden than Trump (simply false) or Chris Sununu simply asserting that Trump won’t be the nominee will somehow stop the Maven of Mar-a-Lago from being victorious.
In conclusion, those betting on Ron DeSantis should watch the Reagan speech and see if they want to spread their wagers around the table a bit more.
****
Beyond the question of how formidable a candidate DeSantis will be, there are three 2023 questions that will tell the tale of 2024 for the Republican Party and much of America:
1. Who else will emerge on the presidential campaign trail to challenge Trump and DeSantis?
2. What kind of tactician, strategist, and American leader will Kevin McCarthy turn out to be, especially and including when it comes to aid for Ukraine, the debt ceiling, the Pentagon, and spending restraint? (See the essential reading Wall Street Journal piece on the Biden budget for a bit of a preview of these McCarthy questions.)
3. Will this current crop of House Republicans turn out to be more Trey Gowdy or John Dingell when it comes to managing the substance and media plan for investigations into the opposition party?
Two big New York Post stories this morning lean into the start of the beginning of the birth of some answers in twin key areas for the GOP: COVID/Fauci and 1/6.
* If this Fauci story is real, this narrative has the chance to jump to the Dominant Media:
New emails uncovered by House Republicans probing the COVID-19 pandemic reveal the deceptive nature of Dr. Anthony Fauci.
They show he “prompted” or commissioned — and had final approval on — a scientific paper written specifically in February 2020 to disprove the theory that the virus leaked from a lab in Wuhan, China.
Eight weeks later, Fauci stood at a White House press conference alongside President Trump and cited that paper as evidence that the lab leak theory was implausible while pretending it had nothing to do with him and he did not know the authors.
* The Post also previews Tucker Carlson’s plan to launch Monday night with his big production using the 1/6 videos that the Speaker gave him exclusive access to:
[W]hen you see what Carlson’s team has put together over the past two weeks of combing through thousands of hours of video, you will be struck by how different the reality was inside the building that day compared to the J6 committee’s deceptively edited prime-time dramas, produced by a former ABC News president for maximum emotional impact.
For instance, Carlson’s team says the J6 committee added audio to silent CCTV footage, inserting screams and other crowd mayhem sounds, to make it seem more ominous. The bookmarks on the video trove show the J6 committee had access to the same footage yet chose to show America only what suited its divisive narrative….
Most strikingly, you will see for the first time the truth about the so-called Qanon Shaman, Jacob Chansley.
This is the guy with the horns and face paint who became the poster child of J6 villainy, and yet when you watch his journey through the Capitol you will be shocked that he is serving 3.5 years in jail for “obstructing an official proceeding.”
For obvious reasons, that second storyline is less likely to jump to the Dominant Media. But it isn’t impossible, if true and compelling.
****
ESSENTIAL READING
* Politico on DeSantis’ House career.
* Secretary Buttigieg’s special gifts include the capacity to be simultaneously contrite and indignant, on full display in an exclusive CNN interview:
Pete Buttigieg admits he got it wrong on the Ohio train derailment response.
But while the criticism is fair, he says, the critics are mostly not.
“It’s really rich to see some of these folks – the former president, these Fox hosts – who are literally lifelong card-carrying members of the East Coast elite, whose top economic policy priority has always been tax cuts for the wealthy, and who wouldn’t know their way around a T.J. Maxx if their life depended on it, to be presenting themselves as if they genuinely care about the forgotten middle of the country,” the Transportation Secretary said. “You think Tucker Carlson knows the difference between a T.J. Maxx and a Kohl’s?”
In an exclusive interview with CNN, Buttigieg acknowledged mistakes. He said he should have gone to East Palestine, Ohio, earlier. He said he failed to anticipate the political fallout from the toxic train derailment, despite months of transportation problems like mass flight cancellations and an air traffic control system shutdown that left many Americans frustrated….
Fun game in the Buttigieg household this morning – guess the member!:
“Buttigieg’s appeal in 2020 as a fresh new face – like [Jimmy] Carter, [Bill] Clinton or [Barack] Obama – who wanted to get past the divisions and move the nation forward,” said a Democratic member of Congress, who did not want to be named criticizing a member of the administration. “It’s sad to see him become a partisan brawler on Twitter and cable news. He’s become the most polarizing member of Biden’s Cabinet.”
* Ramesh Ponnuru on us all being Trumpers on trade now. Well, at least a lot of us.
* Keying off of this Associated Press story out of New Hampshire about Democratic ennui (or worse) when it comes to Joe Biden ’24 – I continue to ask: Could the Granite State be where a wounding nomination challenge takes hold? There are many such scenarios being spun out in Manchester taverns and Concord law offices.