It Gets Early Out There Early

S2E16: “The Morning Meeting” at 9:00am ET today

Oct 22, 2024

“THE MORNING MEETING” DAYBOOK

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2024

2WAY in the news…

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Wednesday at 5pm ET: Lauren Leader goes deep with Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson on election integrity and more on a special MAJORITY RULES.

More guests to be announced.

Or watch on YouTube.

Our Thursday doubleheader this week:

11am to 1pm ET: Electoral College chalk talk with Karl Rove

Watch LIVE on YouTube here.

6pm to 8pm ET: “It’s All About Pennsylvania”

Watch LIVE on YouTube here.

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DAYBOOK, all Eastern Time unless otherwise noted

* Kamala Harris

The NBC interview will air at 630pm on “Nightly” and include access from Monday’s tour with Liz Cheney, per NBC.

* Donald Trump

* Tim Walz

2:30pm: Campaigns with Barack Obama in Madison, WI.

7:45pm: Campaigns in Racine.

* JD Vance

* Doug Emhoff

* Joe Biden

Holds event with Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire on prescription drugs and stops by campaign office.

“The Morning Meeting” topics:

* What’s up with the early vote?

* What are Democrats worried about?

* What are Republicans worried about?

* What’s in the direct mail?

ESSENTIAL READING/VIEWING

..with Paul Wilke

* Doug Sosnik’s latest deck overviewing the race:

Doug Sosnik Deck 1022

934KB ∙ PDF file

Download

* Jon Ralston:

The headline: Republicans lead statewide in Nevada after three days of early voting and mail ballot counting. This has not happened in a presidential year in The Reid Machine Era, which encompasses the races since 2008. This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here.
It's pretty easy to explain: The Clark firewall has all but collapsed (it's 4,500 votes) and the rurals are way overperforming their share of the electorate with what has been tabulated, nearly by 4 points -- almost all taken from Clark's share. The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting.
The Rs lead by about 8,000 votes statewide, or 3 percent. Here are two charts that show what is happening:

The Rs have a nearly 2-point turnout advantage, and nearly 250,000 votes have been cast. That's probably not too far from a fifth of the total vote.
It's too soon to call it a trend, but this was a huge day for Republicans in Nevada (they are ahead in Washoe now, too, erasing a deficit). A few more days like this, though, and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions.
Far from over, too early to call, lots of mail still to come, but if Dems don't build that Clark firewall...
More tomorrow. Sweet dreams (at least for Republicans).

* Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll:

Former President Donald Trump appears to have a slight edge in Georgia over Vice President Kamala Harris in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of likely voters in the battleground state released two weeks before Election Day.
The Republican nominee has a lead of 47% to 43% over Harris, just outside the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. But with 8% of likely voters indicating they’re still undecided, the race could break either way as early voting enters its second week.