Look, I know you’ve got to be frustrated. I know. I can taste it. Frustrated by high prices, by gridlock in Congress, by the time it takes to get anything done. Believe me, I understand the frustration.
-- President Biden at the White House Tuesday, talking about the economy and other stuff
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THE KNOWN AND OBVIOUS CHALLENGES FOR JOE BIDEN
1. Inflation and the near total inability to do anything about it.
Halperin says: This morning’s numbers will not mitigate the facts on the ground.
2. Wall Street’s wild ride.
Halperin says: Markets, like presidential approval rating polls, can go up and down, but sometimes more down.
3. The congressional agenda could basically stay largely stalled through the fall.
Halperin says: There will be more wins, such as on aid to Ukraine, but a paradigm shift seems unlikely, with the competitiveness bill a big variable.
4. Putin’s long, desperate war.
Halperin says: Requiring a lot of bandwidth of senior members of Team Biden for an indeterminate length of time.
5. Worries about losing the left before the midterms.
Halperin says: Admonitions from some quarters to go center and/or pull a Sister Soulja (or three) before the fall are not realistic in the eyes of some White Housers because progressives are the ones keeping the POTUS’ approval rating from dipping into the low 30s.
6. Crime.
Halperin says: Top Democratic strategists who watch focus groups know how dangerous this one is politically.
7. Immigration.
Halperin says: Top Democratic strategists who watch focus groups know how dangerous this one is politically.
THE LESS-KNOWN AND OBVIOUS CHALLENGES FOR JOE BIDEN
1. The criminal probe of Hunter Biden, along with the in-progress investigative journalism, along with deeply embedded concerns in Biden Land about where it is all headed, and what might not be known about what has gone on between father and son.
Halperin says: Notice the repeated references in this New York Times story about the worry among unnamed advisers to the father about how the son is handling things, a blind quote phenomenon that has rarely occurred in this administration on any topic, let alone this one, foreshadowing some potentially rough political and personal moments to come, as the Justice Department reaches a charging decision (which the Times story also suggests is hurtling down the pike).
2. The president’s cognitive state.
Halperin says: Protecting from calamity daily, with instructions from the first lady, is tough enough, but add in the burdens of concern about how history will judge how things were handled – a mentally grueling and sensitive series of anguished decisions.
3. Handling the Veep.
Halperin says: On what is about Round 8, protecting from calamity daily, with instructions from the president, is tough enough, but add in the burdens of concern about how history will judge how things were handled – a mentally grueling and sensitive series of anguished decisions.
4. The constant concern about mass staff departures.
Halperin says: What has been a decent sized trickle looms pre- and post-midterms as a flood, and recruitment of reinforcements is not going to be effortless.
5. The Fed has no idea what it is doing.
Halperin says: Most president’s get frustrated with how the Fed performs, especially when it impacts the president’s political standing – but it is rarely this existential.
6. The challenge of pinning the tail on Rick Scott.
Halperin says: Trying to salvage the midterms by making the foil/boogeyman a Senator no one has heard of over policies that have been repudiated by Mitch McConnell with different repudiations since being branded with Pinocchios by the Washington Post will eventually be deemed “the best Democrats could come up with” rather than some brilliant plan in which there was a lot of confidence.
7. The fraught relationship with Speaker Pelosi.
Halperin says: What are now occasional flare ups could become a dominant storyline of the summer and fall.
8. President Biden and Vice President Harris not wanted by Democrats for rallies in the summer and fall.
Halperin says: There will be nowhere to run or hide from the political truth if the party’s top two surrogates (on paper) are not asked to barnstorm the hustings.
9. The left’s potential to overplay it’s hand on social issues.
Halperin says: The Red machinery is ready to pounce on the smallest remark – and there could be some large ones.
10. The consultant class turns on the Biden political operation.
Halperin says: The private views are caustic and seething, with some focused on competence, some on ideology, and some on both; if even just 25% of what’s happening below the surface comes out, the media environment will become substantially more poisonous.
11. The fall semester disrupted by COVID.
Halperin says: Parents will not stand for excuses or finger pointing on this one.
12. Events make the president look weak on national security.
Halperin says: It goes well beyond Ukraine – hotspot challenges across the globe could stoke the most dangerous meme of all for this commander in chief.
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There was quite a reaction from WWoN readers to Tuesday’s edition, with most people offering their intellectually sympathetic view to what I wrote, while some of Reds said I was too tough on Trump supporters and some Blues said I wasn’t tough enough on Trump supporters – and both saying the other side did not deserve The Presumption of Grace.
To quote the great Tom Lehrer: “I'm sure we all agree that we ought to love one another and I know there are people in the world that do not love their fellow human beings and I hate people like that."
Anyway, here is just one of the many reader missives I could have published:
Mark,
Totally agree with you on today’s message. I’m a left-center liberal with an MBA from Harvard Business School. I’ve just spent the last week on TruthSocial and had been meaning to share a couple of findings with you. In no particular order:
· They are all Trump fans
· They all equate GOP = Dems = Socialists = Commies; McConnell is no different from Sanders
· Going back to Twitter felt like a tall glass of cool water
· And these are only the iPhone owners; wait until Android and PC users get on TruthSocial!
· Their epistemology is firmly rooted in faith and belief; rational dialogue is considered a tool of Antifa and the devil
· The Blues under-estimate the depth of passion at their peril; yes it’s irrational, but it is what it is, and it Is
· About 5-10% of TruthSocial users are outright trolls, or critics like me trying to engage; we get mixed receptions
· They are not going away, and not going to change
· The GOP also under-estimates their ability to control this group
I remember my 35th reunion at HBS, a month before the 2016 election. Someone asked for a show of hands of alumni (100 people in the room) on who would vote for Trump. I and many others were shocked to see about 40% of the hands go up. That, together with Brexit, convinced me that Trump was a-coming, and like you say, the Left has been shocked ever since. Pointing out these folks' irrationality has just as much effect on them as their continued shouting “abortion is murder” has on me – pretty much none. The Presumption of Grace is sadly needed, and I’m not seeing it happen.
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In Tuesday’s edition, I misspelled the name of the late Midge Decter. I regret the error.