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Just how bad will the midterms be for the party of Joe Biden?
Put another, super cliched way: Are we looking at a Red wave or a Red tsunami?
For both American families and the Democratic Party’s political brain trust, Tuesday’s inflation data is going to represent a ghastly moment, and the White House knows it, per CNBC, previewing the data to be released at 830am ET:
WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is bracing for Tuesday’s key consumer inflation report to show that the prices Americans pay soared in March, as Russia’s assault on Ukraine caused energy prices to jump.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday that the Labor Department’s previous report — which showed prices rising at a dramatic rate in February — failed to include the majority of the jump in oil and gas costs caused by the Kremlin’s unprovoked invasion.
“We expect March CPI headline inflation to be extraordinarily elevated due to Putin’s price hike,” Psaki told reporters.
Team Biden has thought this through and has created a set piece from the Casa Blanca Crisis Comms 101 playbook: a presidential trip to rural Iowa (Action! Motion! In the heartland!) coupled with a splashy new policy (Action! Motion! In the heartland!) that political and White House reporters won’t really understand but will promote:
First, the policy, per the Wall Street Journal, released around 5am ET, in time for the network morning shows and DC tip sheets:
The Biden administration plans to temporarily allow high-ethanol content gasoline to be sold in the hot summer months in a bid to tame high fuel prices at the pump, according to senior administration officials.
The decision will allow gasoline with 15% ethanol to be sold between June 1 and Sept. 15. Normally only a 10% ethanol blend can be sold during that time period to reduce smog caused by the 15% blend’s higher volatility.
Allowing fuels with a higher ethanol content will lessen reliance on oil and give drivers more options, senior administration officials said, adding that it could save drivers 10 cents a gallon off current prices.
Oil-industry officials have questioned whether such moves would lower prices. Higher ethanol blending can sometimes raise prices on refiners. Corn prices, like oil, have also seen sharp increases this year because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Oil-industry leaders want Mr. Biden instead to find ways to encourage investment in more U.S. oil and gas production.
“We’re concerned that the administration is not focused on the real structural problems here and is attempting to find short-term fixes that don’t get at the heart of the issue,” Frank Macchiarola, the American Petroleum Institute’s senior vice president of policy, economics and regulatory affairs, said.
Environmentalists have also opposed past attempts to raise the summertime cap because of the additional smog created by the higher blend. But the higher content has long been supported by farmers who grow corn used to make ethanol.
As for the Biden Hawkeye State trip, the Associated Press is not super bullish:
Iowa has never been fertile ground for Joe Biden.
His 1988 presidential bid imploded in a plagiarism scandal sparked by comments he made at a debate there. He abandoned his 2008 White House run after a fifth-place Iowa caucus finish. And his 2020 campaign limped to a fourth-place finish in the state’s technologically glitchy caucus.
After bouncing back to win the Democratic nomination, Biden returned for a rally at the Iowa state fairgrounds four days before Election Day 2020, only to see Donald Trump win the state by 8 percentage points.
Biden heads back to Iowa for the first time as president on Tuesday at a moment when he’s facing yet more political peril. He’s saddled with sagging approval ratings and inflation at a 40-year high while his party faces the prospect of big midterm election losses that could cost it control of Congress….
As for notion of Team Biden decamping from the Beltway’s Whole Foods mentality to more pastoral settings, again, the AP is not convinced this will work, although the Family Wire is willing to let Jen Psaki’s biggest fib ever go unchallenged:
The Biden administration plans to spend coming weeks pushing billions in funding for rural areas. Cabinet members and other senior officials will travel the country to help communities get access to money available as part of the infrastructure package.
“The president is not making this trip through a political prism,” said White House press secretary Jen Psaki. “He’s making this trip because Iowa is a rural state in the country that would benefit greatly from the president’s policies.”
Iowa State University political science professor Steffen Schmidt said part of Biden’s trouble is that key social issues that are driving the national Democratic agenda — including gay rights and combating institutional racism — can turn off moderate voters in the heartland.
“Iowa’s a traditional, rural state, and even Democrats are middle-of-the-roaders,” he said.
Before we look at the White House proposed solutions on the table, let’s review the latest additional skepticism.
The White House’s attempts to deflect blame may prove insufficient politically. As recently as this fall, senior Democrats were still expressing cautious optimism that inflation could fade from the national discourse by the 2022 midterm elections and in time for the party to recover its footing. That optimism is fading. Inflation appears to have sunk Democrats’ poll numbers, damaged the administration’s boasts over the economic recovery, and even hurt Biden’s legacy by creating new roadblocks to his domestic policy agenda in Congress.
Although international in scope, inflation has emerged as the issue Americans see as the single most important problem facing the country. But they are also unconvinced that politicians in Washington — including Biden — have the answers to solving it, according to polling experts. Inflation is bad internationally but higher in the United States, which approved more in fiscal relief programs and enjoyed faster economic growth than many European countries.
The White House has long banked on the political benefits of taming Covid-19 and overseeing strong job recovery, but as midterm campaigning accelerates, President Biden has been unable to shake low approval ratings as voters remain focused on higher prices for gasoline and groceries.
Increasingly, polls show, Mr. Biden isn’t giving a boost to Democrats as they face an already-tough election climate. The president’s attempts to highlight economic success and legislative victories have been complicated by rapid inflation and overshadowed by the challenge of responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine….
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the NBC survey, said there is an enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats. “A vote for Biden was to end the chaos,” he said, referring to the Trump era, “But it was also to achieve results. A lot of voters feel like they haven’t gotten that.”
More Washington Post, including Zandi negativity, which semioticians will note is devastating for the Democrats, coming from the man who has become the party’s favorite econ go-to:
“I think the economic backdrop is as dark as it has been since the start of the administration,” said Mark Zandi, an economist whose analyses are frequently cited by the White House. “It’s just a very, very dark and deep problem … There’s nothing more pernicious on the collective psyche than having to pay more. And it’s only set to get worse….”
Aaron Klein, a former Treasury official now at the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank, emphasized that substantial uncertainty surrounds the next few months that make it hard to decipher whether inflation will ease ahead of the midterms.
“We don’t know when war in Europe is going to end; we don’t know when covid is going to be adjusted for; we don’t know when the global supply chain will adjust to the periodic covid flare-ups that seem to be a hallmark of the new normal,” Klein said. “We just don’t know.”
And this data-driven post by Simon Bazelon about how Democrats are wandering into a run from 2022-2024 that is on track to completely wipe out their number of Senate seats is both overly negative for the Ds and essential reading:
“Business as usual” will result in President Trump or President DeSantis, with somewhere between 56 and 62 Senate seats. And this is actually worse than it might seem at first. In recent years, Republican senators who have retired (or announced that they are retiring) have skewed heavily toward those who were willing to occasionally stand up to Trump, like Jeff Flake, Lamar Alexander, Rob Portman, Pat Toomey, and Richard Burr. If Trump returns to office, he will do so with a median Senator who is far more deferent to his wishes than the last time around.
Now, keep in mind that Democrats still have a pair of potential safeguards for the midterms.
In the Senate, Republicans could still nominate hyper-flawed candidates in about a half dozen races who are simply unable to win general election contests, even with the wind at their backs.
And in the House, Republicans are going to have to take a large number of districts that Joe Biden won overwhelmingly in order to move their net gain pickup number above 35 (let alone into the 40s, 50s, or 60s….).
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Back to the news…
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So, possible D solutions:
As they work to settle on a campaign strategy for November, Democrats said they need to better sell the public on what they see as Mr. Biden’s wins, chiefly pandemic stimulus and infrastructure spending, while making clear they will work to bring prices down….
Mr. Biden’s advisers still believe that showing progress on the economy and the pandemic will help them in November. Mr. Biden is planning a busy month of domestic travel in April, one adviser said, and will seek to emphasize his record and draw a contrast with Republicans. Appearances in Iowa and North Carolina are planned for this week
“I’m not going to say that history is in our favor, it certainly isn’t,” the adviser said. “I’m not going to say that navigating Ukraine and Russia makes it any easier. And certainly there are impacts at home,” the adviser said, while contending that Mr. Biden has a message that will break through as voters start to pay attention.
Two White House officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe administration strategy, said the administration is trying to make its focus on lowering costs a centerpiece of its agenda. They also said to expect a greater emphasis by the White House on Republicans’ agenda, which the administration believes will contrast unfavorably to their plans to lower prices. White House officials have repeatedly seized on a plan by Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) to impose a minimum federal income tax on tens of millions of Americans.
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Here is a more global set of ideas for what ails the Democrats now. This was NOT written by me (seriously) but by my reader/friend whose missive on winning the war against Putin that I published a few days ago struck such a chord with the Wide World of News audience.
Here are his thoughts about what Team Biden should do, directed at the top White House political mind:
Memo to Mike Donilon
Campaign 2022/2024
I. Trump
Humans are creatures of language. We escaped from being apes by learning to use it. For this to happen, there had to exist faith that words were true.
Naming is an agreement. An apple is an apple and not a banana because we all agreed.
Humans norms are just this, mutual agreements. We live primarily by norms, laws being rather imperfect efforts to codify them.
When Trump used outrageous words to break the norms, no one knew what to do. Everyone looked at each other in shock.
He unloosed what we see all around us. He captured an entire party to turn insurrection into catchy political messaging.
Trump is an actual seditionist figuring he would hide behind appearing as only a metaphoric one. He knew using the metaphor of sedition is protected by free speech.
It was a brilliantly effective strategy, because of the dark fault lines buried deeply in our collective history.
However, being an actual seditionist is not protected by free speech.
It took unearthing of the details of January 6th to know the difference. But now we do.
II. Republicans
Republicans are not actual insurrectionists. They are captives of its metaphoric power.
Breaking with the metaphor would cost them governance for some time into the future.
They tell themselves the danger to our Republic, as run by Democrats, is a threat greater than any brought by maintaining the metaphor.
Republicans have chosen this as their path. It must be recognized for what it is, but without equating them with Trump. They are prisoners of Trump suffering a form of Stockholm syndrome. They must be slowly and gently deprogramed by losing elections. Otherwise, nothing is redeemed and we cycle hopelessly trapped in the fight to the death between Red and Blue.
III. Democrats
Democrats are sufficiently wrapped up in their intellectual superiority to make it difficult for us to see the forest for the trees.
Democrats are right to believe in racial, social, and economic justice. But, my God, must we go about it alienating those we need to win this fall’s elections?
Because, unfortunately, Republicans for now have chosen Trump and his path of sedition, which means losing the House and Senate actually now risks the Republic.
Democrats therefore somehow must put winning over righteousness.
We must give up our loving focus over who is the better person, and instead make the campaign a referendum on Trump, autocracy, and the future of the Republic.
IV. The message:
Must you, fellow voter, focus only on lower gas prices, as doing so risks having up your Republic taken from you.
Because while I think you know it is only our Republic that lets us live better, I have to tell you, Trump doesn’t care. The Republic means nothing to him. He wants to destroy it for his own power. But I know it means everything to you, when you think about it.
Answer three simple questions:
· Why do the rich Chinese and Russians come here?
· Why do the people at our southern border risk everything to scramble to evade our strictest efforts to keep them at bay?
· Why is it that so many people over the world aspire to be American?
It is simply the case that everyone knows America is the best country in the world. You know it too. But it is so only because it is a Republic, free and democratic.
Yes, your costs are higher now, and rightly are a point of real concern to your family. These concerns cannot be waved away. Your government must address prices honestly, without hype. We must convince you of the real mitigating efforts being made to lower prices as soon as possible.
· Larry Summers should be used as both a definer of policy and a credible spokesperson not seen as a progressive wing nut. His short term points:
o Strategic petroleum reserve releases do help mitigate gas price increases.
o Child care reimbursements and a narrow immigration bill can significantly help labor shortages.
o Raising interest rates carefully managed by the Fed should be encouraged, as they will damp inflationary demand and can be done without provoking a recession
o With good faith efforts of the legislature and the administration, overlooked by the Fed, we can bring inflation down and maintain a positive path of growth.
o But it will not be easy
· Joe Manchin should be enlisted to credibly create a BBB that is not BBB, passable now, properly targeted at the suburban independents and blue collar Democrats needed to at least hold the Senate if not produce a miracle in the House.
o Prescription drug reform would lower cost of living.
o Climate reform but “sane” policies on fossil fuels for “reliability” would tell markets oil prices need not go through the roof.
o Unravel Trump tax cuts; corporate tax hikes, elimination of tax loopholes, popular and important initiatives.
o Lower deficit will defuse inflation psychology.
o Medicaid extensions just good policy and lowers costs to families.
The passion of the progressives cannot be waved away. Enlist AOC in a leadership role to carry the administration’s support for this important wing of the Party.
· Racial, social, and economic justice must remain the primary face of the Democratic Party even as the party appeals to independents and blue collar voters.
· We must all learn to do this without hectoring and offending main stream American values, particularly those of the naturally culturally conservative black and Hispanic American family.
· We need progressives to plan and lead the charge here, not fight the charge.
Enlist the party’s intellectual talent to make specific how we live better than the rest of the world by dint of our freedom.
· What is the hard nose case for the success of diversity taken from our history?
· Why has entrepreneurship worked so much better in America than anywhere else in the world, and how does it so successfully invent the future?
· Why has blue collar America, the doers of our economy, always been the heart and soul of the middle class, and why must this not be allowed to continue to be threatened under the onslaught of globalization run amok?
· In this explanation, lies the secret of a market economy constrained by an enlightened government for the benefit of all of the people.
· If we cannot explain in simple English why we are the best, we aren’t the best.
Now then, go hammer the hell out of Trump for being the autocrat he is.
We must win this for Republicans, for AOC and the Joe Manchin’s crowd, for the country, and finally, for the world.
Align these messages with public hearings coming from the January 6th committee.
And with the military campaign to beat Russia.
If we can’t sell our Republic as being better than a Trump autocracy, we don’t deserve to win.