FIRING
ITEM: Despite media and communications offensives, Governor Newsom and Mayor Bass still face heat from various directions.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: They are both finished politically.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: The press graveyards are filled with the bones of those who prematurely predicted the demise of elected officials who stumbled in the early days of a crisis, only to recover and thrive before too long. And/but what’s coming up is a relentless and complex public policy puzzle during which the challenges will be many, not the least of which can best be summed up by this: Hell hath no fury like a homeless celebrity.
Or, put another way: A Los Angeles conservative is a liberal actor who blames Newsom, Bass, and decades of liberal governance for their house burning down.
****
CONFIRMING
ITEM: John Fund in “National Review”:
According to one senator, [Armed Services Committee Chair Roger] Wicker didn’t poll his fellow Republicans on the committee until last Thursday. He found that support for Hegseth falls short, for now, of a committee majority. If his nomination goes to the Senate floor, where there are only 53 Republicans, Senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine are likely to vote no. Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, liberated from his duties as GOP Senate leader, is also a likely no. Moreover, GOP Senators Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, and John Curtis of Utah (who just replaced his good friend Mitt Romney in the Senate) are said to be irritated by ad buys in their states from MAGA groups that demand that they vote to confirm Hegseth.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: MAGA gets what MAGA wants.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: Team Hegseth got their guy a shot to ace the confirmation hearings and garner the job. But there remain around a dozen potential “no” votes among Republican senators, for around a dozen different reasons. If Trump demands a floor vote, he will likely get a floor vote. But don’t be surprised if it never gets to that.
****
DEALING
ITEM: Associated Press:
U.S. and Arab mediators made significant progress overnight toward brokering a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and the release of scores of hostages held in the Gaza Strip, but a deal has not been reached yet, officials said Monday.
Three officials acknowledged progress has been made and said the coming days would be critical for ending more than 15 months of fighting that has destabilized the Middle East. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the talks.
One of the three officials and a Hamas official said there were still a number of hurdles to clear. On several occasions over the past year, U.S. officials have said they were on the verge of reaching a deal, only to have the talks stall.
One person familiar with the talks said there had been a breakthrough overnight and that there was a proposed deal on the table. Israeli and Hamas negotiators will now take it back to their leaders for final approval, the person said.
ITEM: Al Jazeera:
United States President Joe Biden has spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the ongoing talks for a ceasefire in Gaza and stressed the “immediate need” for a truce, as well as the return of Israeli captives held in the Palestinian enclave.
The call on Sunday came as Biden pushes for a deal to stop the fighting before President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House on January 20.
ITEM: Media-savvy incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz makes clear on Sunday show that he is already deeply enmeshed in both the Middle East and Ukraine/Russia, per Politico.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: Team Biden has cried “good wolf” so many times on Gaza I find it hard to believe a last-minute deal will happen.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: If I told you everything that is going on behind the scenes in cooperation between the current and incoming administrations, you would not believe it.
****
FRAMING
ITEM: Politico:
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: Apparently, Politico didn’t get the memo about how 2025 is not 2017.
What you should ask on your morning Zoom: You think John Harris knows that a lot of the people who are leaving are leaving because of stuff like this – not (only) because of Alex Burns’ bedside manner?
****
PARDONING
ITEM: JD Vance on “Fox News Sunday” on J6:
I think it’s very simple, look if you protested peacefully on January 6th, and you had Merrick Garland’s Department of Justice treat you like a gang member, you should be pardoned. If you committed violence on that day, obviously you shouldn’t be pardoned. And there’s a little bit of a gray area there.
ITEM: Vance’s follow-up tweet:
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: Vance, like so many VPs before him, is way too prone to get out over his skis.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: Actually, Team Trump likes it when he does this stuff. So far.
****
TRADING
ITEM: New York Times:
China announced on Monday that its trade surplus reached almost $1 trillion last year as its exports swamped the globe, while the country’s own businesses and households spent cautiously on imports.
When adjusted for inflation, China’s trade surplus last year far exceeded any in the world in the past century, even those of export powerhouses like Germany, Japan or the United States. Chinese factories are dominating global manufacturing on a scale not experienced by any country since the United States after World War II.
The outpouring of goods from Chinese factories has drawn criticism from an ever-lengthening list of China’s trade partners. Industrialized and developing countries alike have erected tariffs, attempting to slow the tide. In many instances, China has retaliated in kind, bringing the world closer to a trade war that could further destabilize the global economy.
ITEM: Wall Street Journal:
China’s economy is more dependent on exports than it has been for most of the past two decades, leaving it vulnerable to a new broadside on trade from President-elect Donald Trump.
Chinese exports to the rest of the world grew 5.9% last year compared with a year earlier to $3.6 trillion, figures published Monday showed.
Those figures mean trade is on track to account for about a fifth of the 5% or so growth China is expected to report this year.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: I still don’t get what Biden’s China policy was.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: Watch for a Grand Bargain between Trump and Xi. For all of Biden’s nostalgic bluster about “his old friend,” he was never able to fundamentally change the superpower balance of power.
****
DEFINING
ITEM: Barton Swaim makes the case that Joe Biden is dumb.
ITEM: Dan Balz explores the notion that Biden should not have run for reelection.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: I wonder how closely Biden reads the newspapers these days.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: Very closely. He actually still cares about Old Media more than even Trump does at this point.
****
VISITING
ITEM: CNN puts a pair of boots on the Greenland ground:
An inhospitable icecap several miles deep covers 80% of Greenland, forcing the Inuit to dwell along the shorelines in brightly painted communities. Here, they spend brutally cold winters hunting seals on ice under the northern lights in near perpetual darkness. Although these days, they can also rely on community stores.
The problem for travelers over the years has been getting to Greenland via time-consuming indirect flights. That’s changing. Late in 2024, the capital Nuuk opened a long-delayed international airport. From June 2025, United Airlines will be operating a twice-weekly direct service from Newark to Nuuk.
Two further international airports are due to open by 2026 — Qaqortoq in South Greenland and more significantly in Ilulissat, the island’s only real tourism hotspot.
What that loudmouth will say on your morning Zoom: Forget the military and intelligence value – it’s all about the minerals.
What you should say on your morning Zoom: Forget the military/intel value and the minerals – it’s all about tourism and Manifest Destiny, Trump Edition.
EXCUSE THE FORMATTING: SUBSTACK WAS DOWN AND I DID THIS ON MY PHONE. FROM THE AIRPORT. SORRY!