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THE MACRO WAY TO START YOUR DAY
AMERICAN POLITICIANS TRY TO RESPOND TO GUN VIOLENCE IN A BIPARTISAN MANNER
The bipartisan group of 10 senators working on the issue was to have a Zoom call on Tuesday to work out a framework for negotiations during the holiday recess, Senator John Cornyn, Republican of Texas, told reporters on Monday. Congress will be back in session June 6.
Failure on this — which many Democrats, including Mr. Schumer, concede is likely after a decade of similar efforts have collapsed — would be lumped onto a growing pile of disappointments that have depressed Democratic voter enthusiasm since the party took control of Washington.
Halperin says: Summer heat and summer recess sap momentum for congressional action like nothing else but ten Republican Senators are in sight but will House Democrats accept and act on 1/8th of a loaf if the House of Lords goes first?
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TEAM BIDEN ATTEMPTS A JUNE PAGE-TURNING RE-SET ON INFLATION
President Biden said he would support the Federal Reserve in its effort to combat high inflation by reducing economic demand, as the central bank lifts interest rates at its fastest pace in more than three decades.
Mr. Biden outlined a broad three-part plan for addressing inflation, which is running at 40-year highs, in an opinion piece published Monday evening in The Wall Street Journal. He is set to meet with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday at the White House, the first such meeting since Mr. Powell was tapped by Mr. Biden and confirmed to a second four-year term by the Senate on May 12.
Mr. Biden said it was likely that the pace of job growth could slow from a monthly pace of 500,000 jobs to around 150,000 as a necessary result of the Fed’s efforts to combat high inflation.
“The most important thing we can do now to transition from rapid recovery to stable, steady growth is to bring inflation down,” Mr. Biden said. He said he agreed with the Fed’s assessment “that fighting inflation is our top economic challenge right now….”
The second pillar of Mr. Biden’s plan called for taking “every practical step to make things more affordable for families…and to boost the productive capacity of the economy over time.”
Mr. Biden cited a list of proposals, including to upgrade infrastructure, boost housing production, lower drug prices by giving Medicare the power to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies, fix disrupted supply chains and target fees charged by foreign ocean-shipping companies….
The third piece of Mr. Biden’s proposal calls for reducing federal budget deficits, which had increased sharply even before Congress and two different presidential administrations approved a combined $6 trillion in spending to address the coronavirus pandemic.
Halperin says: This is a clearly-written, muscular op-ed with semiotically significant placement but voters (and skeptical business leaders) want walk not talk but there is in fact a short window left for Democrats to prove they have a plan.
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THE ENERGY SECTOR REMAINS A COMPLEX AND MESSY STEW OF PUSH-ME-PULL-YOU SUPPLY AND DEMAND DISRUPTIONS
Oil prices rose to their highest level in more than two months Monday, driven by China’s tentative emergence from Covid-19 shutdowns.
A renewed push by European Union leaders to strike a deal that would ban most Russian oil imports added to the upward momentum on prices. Heading into the summit in Brussels, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he was confident the bloc would find a consensus over a ban—though other European leaders were more cautious about the chances of an imminent agreement.
The twin prospect of rising oil demand in Asia and curbed supplies out of Russia pushed benchmark Brent-crude prices for July delivery up 1.9% to $121.67 a barrel. That is their highest level since early March. Since then, falling fuel consumption in China has tamed global demand and pulled crude prices down from their 2022 highs of about $139 a barrel.
“If you throw in the lifting of the restrictions in Shanghai…all of a sudden the demand side of the equation looks more attractive than it did a week ago,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates.
Halperin says: Putin’s shock over European energy moves must remain high but winter is coming but if the U.S. can organize increased production elsewhere (with distribution….) this could be the invasion’s biggest game change.
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THE PANDEMIC ISN’T OVER, PART I
Many Americans hoped this would be the first normal summer after two years of Covid-19 disruptions. A chronic labor shortage means it probably won’t be.
In Phoenix, less than half of the public pools are opening because the city can’t hire enough lifeguards, despite offering a $2,500 incentive payment. Trolley lines in coastal Maine that service beaches are shutting down for the summer due to a dearth of drivers. Across the country, restaurants in tourist destinations are operating on limited hours because they don’t have enough staff to stay open longer.
The shortages push up labor costs, adding to inflationary pressure on items including airfares and beach menus. That could hold back consumer spending, the engine of the U.S. economy.
Halperin says: Many manifestations of this phenomenon are first-world problems but many are not but governors should really be addressing this in their respective states.
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THE PANDEMIC ISN’T OVER, PART II
Calling off plans at the last minute used to be seen as rude. Now it can feel like a fixture of social life….
As Covid-19 cases rise in some parts of the country, cancellations keep coming. Among friends, families and colleagues, reasons for canceling plans range widely, as does the timing. This is partly due to the uneven nature by which Covid-19 spreads, and partly due to a willingness to beg off plans with little more than sniffles. The availability of rapid tests—and events that require them—has also meant that people find out their health status at the last minute.
Halperin says: Many manifestations of this phenomenon are first-world problems but many are not but sorry, I won’t be there for that.
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AN INVESTIGATION PIECE ON JIMMY BIDEN, PRESIDENTIAL BROTHER
In a rare phone interview, James Biden said he tries to keep a low profile, and he used more than a few expletives to describe unwelcome attention from Republicans and the media. “I’m the guy who assists in everything. When it comes to my family I try to be as supportive as I can,” he said. “But this notion of ‘the fixer,’ or any reference that has a negative connotation, is offensive.”
He added, “The notion I am some underworld figure and I am a fixer or the cleaner or I’m this or that — I’m a very concerned family member who tries to protect my family in every way I can, in what is a very ethical way.”
Several times during the interview, James Biden mused aloud that he should not be speaking to a reporter, then resumed talking. Eventually his wife, Sara, entered the room and advised him to cut off the conversation. “Talk to a real person who knows me,” James Biden said, then offered, “Guess what? There’s not many who do.”
Halperin says/asks: If this is the best the Post can do James would appear to be in good shape but there’s more iceberg beneath this scratched surface but what was he doing getting on the phone?
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