Memo to President Biden

This is NOT a memo to President Biden...

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I don’t know how many times I have to tell you: I don’t even know if the White House chief of staff sends his boss memos.

But if he does, today’s would go a little something like this (which I made up):

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To: JRB

From: Ron Klain

Date: July 15, 2021

Re: Busy day!

Good morning, Mr. President.

Well, we were right.

Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are BFD geniuses.

A long way to go, as Ricchetti reminds us multiple times a day, but we went yesterday from having 94% of the congressional Democratic votes we need for reconciliation to about 97% -- and we are going to get the last 3% along the way, just like Nancy and Chuck told us we would.

The Republicans will say “tax and spend” and we will say “tax the rich and corporations --  and spend on the longstanding needs of America’s families.”

As long as we hit those notes consistently, Anzo assures us this is not only good policy but good politics.

Our friends in the media are oddly low-key about a Democratic president with historically narrow majorities in Congress poised to ram through four trillion in new spending and create of massive new entitlements.

Check out, for instance, the Washington Post homepage:

The only mention of the Senate Democrats’ outline is in an editorial!

And Fred Hiatt and the Washington Post ed board are helping us triangulate, by praising the deal but saying its big flaw is we aren’t proposing to raise taxes on the middle class!

The only people who seem to understand what you, Nancy, and Chuck are doing (or, at least, the only ones willing to say it aloud…) are on the right.

For instance, here is your friend Paul Gigot:

The leadership’s political strategy here is pure power politics: Start the budget train moving and squeeze the swing-state Democrats to get on board or take the blame for failure. Don’t bet on Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi, one of the most vocal SALT advocates, to stand in the way. Sens. Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema may be able to whittle down the size of the tax increases, but in the end they too will be faced with a binary choice: Vote for the reconciliation bill, or face the party’s wrath.

His Wall Street Journal colleague, Dan Henninger, totally gets it as well:

A clear understanding of the politics in play over the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill and the $3.5 trillion of spending headed into law on a reconciliation vote begins and ends with one person: Mr. Sanders, the 79-year-old chairman of the Senate’s oxymoronic Budget Committee.

Forget Joe Biden. Forget the made-for-media members of the Squad, such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Other than at select Trump rallies, Hillary Clinton is long forgotten. The face, mind and soul of the Democratic Party is Bernie Sanders.

There is nothing new about Mr. Sanders. He is old left. From the New Deal onward, old left domestic policy has meant mainly one thing—industrial policy and planning. Mr. Biden’s broad redefinition of “infrastructure”—the new entitlements, the climate mandates, taxes—is simply old-school industrial planning on a grand scale.

This $4 trillion blowout is the final heist plotted by an old-left wild bunch of Bernie Sanders, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin, with Joe Biden along for the ride. Compromise? Republicans still have a choice: Put their hands up or put up a fight.

Truly, we gotta love Bernie. You were so right that Secretary Clinton’s biggest mistake was her failure to bring him into the tent. Our two Brooklyn boys (and Baltimore gal) are bringing this thing home.

We could not script Senator Sanders any better if we tried.  His praise of the $3.5 trillion deal while still expressing disappointment and determination is pitch perfect for our needs – and sends the best possible signal to House progressives.

Here’s what Senator Sanders said Wednesday: “Let me be clear — this is a huge bill. This is a complicated bill. This is a transformative bill. In some cases, it doesn’t provide all the funding that I would like right now.”

That take has been pretty much echoed by Rep. Pramila Jayapal and others. We don’t have their votes officially yet, but they are in the bag.

All those hours and hours (and hours!) I have spent meeting with and talking to the left are about to pay off big time. Well worth it.

And, as Nancy and Chuck assured us correctly, even if we end up losing the Republicans in the Gang of 22 on the infrastructure deal, we have a perfect backup.

Rob Portman has broken the code on this one:

If Republicans cannot deliver enough votes to move the package past a filibuster, Democrats could simply fold physical infrastructure spending into their reconciliation plan and take away any chance for Republicans to shape it, said Senator Rob Portman, Republican of Ohio, one of the bipartisan bill’s negotiators.

“If we don’t pass infrastructure, they’re going to put even more infrastructure in than we have and worse policies,” said Mr. Portman, who fielded skepticism from his colleagues at a private Republican lunch on Tuesday.

Some Republicans had hoped that a bipartisan accord on physical infrastructure projects would siphon momentum from a multitrillion-dollar reconciliation package. Instead, it appears very much on track, and it may intensify the pressure on Republicans to come to terms on a bipartisan package, even if they fiercely oppose the rest of the Democrats’ agenda.

There are more intramural fights to come, as you know, on, for instance, immigration and prescription drugs. And as always the parliamentarian is going to have a big say here.

But what the media is casting as incremental and a step along the way was, in fact, as you know, a major watershed moment.

We have to move on a bit today, however.

While we do the quiet work on getting our Senate ducks in a row, you are going to be out front today on two important issues.

First, you are doing an event at 11:45 with Vice President Harris on the Child Tax Credit. Republicans seem to be totally missing the politics on this.

We are addressing the real lives of real people – and they are just complaining.

Chuck and Nancy are really into this one as well.

Chuck Schumer @SenSchumer

We ran the numbers again. We did a deep dive. We used a computer. We used a calculator. We got out the flip phone. We counted on our fingers. And it’s still zero.

Brian Schatz @brianschatz

How many republicans voted for the child tax credit that is hitting millions of bank accounts this month?

And all this fits in with our narrative that the Biden Economy is Building Back Better, Baby!

As soon as we figure out how to sequence some of these Fed personnel moves, we can get Chairman Powell’s future all set up. He was great on the Hill yesterday tamping down inflation fears.  Despite what Halperin keeps writing, lumber prices are in fact way down.

Your other big events today involve Chancellor Merkel, including some meetings, a bilat presser, and a dinner.

We will do full prep for the media availability later; we have already decided which reporters you will call on. And Anita, Kate, and Jen have already predicted what questions the chosen ones will ask – and, as you know, our team never guesses wrong!

A couple of things that might come up there I want to put on your radar now to think about while you work out.

First, the Germans (along with most of Europe and some of Asia) have figured out that a lot of your international polices are Trump Lite (or, in some cases, Trump Heavy), all with a smile instead of a scowl.

This is in the Wall Street Journal:

“The tone is normal again, as is the ability to discuss all relevant issues like partners, but in terms of substance it is quite clear that America will not change some key policies,” a senior German official said. “Trump’s positions on a number of issues were American positions, only he pursued them in an aggressive way.”

And not to get all Bob Gates on you, but your long track record with the occasional miss on foreign policy and national security is showing some familiar patterns, and Republicans are pouncing, without regard to the water’s edge:

Biden has vast foreign policy experience for a new president but, just six months into his term, he's dealing with a raft of crises in the Western Hemisphere and Middle East that are sorely testing the still-undefined Biden Doctrine. While he rushes to defend his decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan and navigates increasingly hostile Iranian proxy attacks on Americans in Iraq and Syria, he's suddenly being forced to make quick decisions about the level of U.S. involvement in the unfolding political unrest in neighboring Cuba and Haiti. That’s not to mention the constant tensions with Russia and China. (Politico)

More specifically, the facts on the ground aren’t great, per the AP:

The Taliban are pressing on with their surge in Afghanistan, saying they seized a strategic border crossing with Pakistan on Wednesday — the latest in a series of key border post to come under their control in recent weeks.

And we need to check in with President Bush’s office and figure out why he is criticizing the withdrawal.

If Cuba comes up at the press conference, you are going to need to denounce dictatorships and celebrate freedom — or for some reason Florida Democrats are going to flip out.

Vice President Harris has her own meeting with Chancellor Merkel this morning, continuing our practice of having her get one-on-one face time with these world leaders….just in case.

We are all over your stern guidance that we do everything we can to make life better for your Number Two than the Davids made things for you in the Obama White House.

But, to be honest, Mr. President, her shop does not make it easy. There’s yet another story about what kind of boss she is, and to quote one of your favorite presidents, facts are stubborn things.  I promise this project has my full attention and we will get it sorted out. 

Tweeted pictures of Office of the Vice President staff camaraderie, complete with birthday celebrations and sugary treats, are just the start of our master plan.

Just a couple of more things.

The press shop has looked at the coverage of your Philly speech and it is largely tremendous. Despite the fact checks showing that the Georgia and Texas voting measures are in fact not that outrageous compared to, say, Delaware, our allies in the Dominant Media continue to amplify your Jim Crow rhetoric like it is the unvarnished gospel truth.

Sure Rich Lowry and Karl Rove can write otherwise, and call you a demagogue. Sure the Washington Post can give Jim Clyburn a quartet of Pinocchios.

Whatever; you are home free on this one.

As always, we remain eternally vigilant about Hunter. The New York Post has a story about House Republicans trying to figure out why you flew him around the world on Air Force Two as he traded on your name to get lucrative contracts from foreign powers.

Not quite willing to say we are home free on this one, yet. But all the signs are great.

Lastly, we need to learn the lessons of 2000 and figure out how to slow down Ron DeSantis now, before he gets reelected.  There’s a new poll out by the pollster he shares with Trump that shows DeSantis is arguably one of the  biggest non-incumbent frontrunners in either party ever

There is a very key quote from a Republican strategist in Politico’s write up of the poll:

“Voters crave authenticity, and he comes across as very authentic,” [Kevin] McLaughlin said. “While some candidates are busy trying to ‘create’ an image or persona that will resonate with GOP presidential primary voters, DeSantis is just doing his job and letting his actions do all the talking.”

The lesson there, Mr. President: never tell, always show.

We are working on a plan to keep this guy who is going 800 miles per hour every day from becoming an 800-pound political gorilla in 2024.

See you after your workout. 

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