ESSENTIAL VIEWING
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THE MIDTERMS
* Donald Trump’s Saturday Pennsylvania speech was a mélange of MAGA greatest/worst hits and the kind of anti-Biden framing that unites the Republican Party.
* Democratic political strategist Tom Bonier, the C.E.O. of data firm TargetSmart has an essential reading New York Times op-ed piece on the implications of the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling that says:
In my 28 years analyzing elections, I’ve never seen anything like what’s happened in the past two months in American politics: Women are registering to vote in numbers I’ve never witnessed. I’ve run out of superlatives to describe how different this moment is, especially in light of the cycles of tragedy and eventual resignation of recent years. This is a moment to throw old political assumptions out the window and to consider that Democrats could buck historic trends this cycle….
With over two months until Election Day, uncertainty abounds. Election prognostication relies heavily on past precedent. Yet there is no precedent for an election centered around the removal of a constitutional right affirmed a half-century before. Every poll we consume over the closing weeks of this election will rely on a likely voter model for which we have no benchmark.
I’m going to repeat that last line again because it is vitally important that you all focus on that as you look at polls through Election Day:
Every poll we consume over the closing weeks of this election will rely on a likely voter model for which we have no benchmark.
Polls that claim to be polling likely voters that are not necessarily polling the actual likely voters are of little snapshot (and even less predictive) value.
* The Wall Street Journal’s new polling on abortion reinforces the Bonier view on the impact of the abortion issue.
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ESSENTIAL READING
* Ross Douthat: “Does Biden Really Believe We Are in a Crisis of Democracy?”
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TEN OF THE EIGHTY QUESTIONS THAT WILL DEFINE SEPTEMBER
1. Will the existence of a higher power controlling our universe be proven by the final, utter collapse of the Yankees?
2. Will Republican donors decide to go all in to take back the Senate majority – or hold onto their cash (or move their giving elsewhere)?
3. Can Republican Senate candidates in OH, NC, and WI stabilize their positions enough that the GOP path to the majority becomes (depending on if Dr. Oz can win) simply take one or two of GA, AZ, NV, NH, CO, and WA?
4. Will the House Republicans’ new “Contract With America” be a game changer in any specific competitive races in favor of the party’s candidates – or a blip that doesn’t sustain for even a single news cycle?
5. In what states will Joe Biden and Kamala Harris do campaign events, with what Democrats on the ballot appearing with them?
6. How do the American people perceive the economy by October 1?
7. What will we learn about Season 3 of “Ted Lasso”?
8. What will the cadence of Mar-a-Lago revelations be, via the courts and via leaks?
9. Epic, historic, blippy?
10. Will the US have more leverage over Russia or China?