New New Hampshire Polls & Trump's VP Pick
All in a special mid-morning edition of "Wide World of News"
Want to believe Nikki Haley has a chance to beat Donald Trump in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday?
Go with the ARG poll, just released:
Donald Trump leads Nikki Haley 46% to 44% in the latest New Hampshire Poll of likely Republican primary voters. Ron DeSantis is at 6%.
Trump leads Haley 59% to 34% among registered Republicans and Haley leads Trump 57% to 27% among undeclared (independent) voters saying they will vote in the Republican primary.
Haley leads Trump 49% to 45% among men, while Trump lead Haley 46% to 37% among women.
However, that poll is an outlier, as compared to the new NBC10/Boston Globe poll, the new CNN poll, and a private poll I have seen, all of which show Trump with a double digit lead.
Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump increased his lead over Nikki Haley to 19% with two days remaining until the state's primary, according to the latest Suffolk University/NBC10 Boston/Boston Globe tracking poll.
The survey results, released Sunday morning, have Trump at 55%, two percentage points higher than on Saturday. Haley remained at 36%. Ron DeSantis, a distant third, went down one percentage point to 6%. Less than 1% chose someone else, 2% were undecided and less than 1% refused to answer. The survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters was conducted from Jan. 19-20. The margin of error is 4.4%.
CNN:
The race for the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary appears to be former President Donald Trump’s to lose, according to a new CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire following Trump’s 30-point win in Iowa’s caucuses last week.
Trump holds 50% support among likely Republican primary voters in the Granite State, while his closest competitor, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, stands at 39%. Both have gained supporters since the last CNN/UNH poll in early January – when Trump held 39% to Haley’s 32% – as the field of major contenders has shrunk from six candidates to three. Both Trump and Haley now hold their highest level of support in UNH polling on the race since 2021. But Haley’s sharp gains since late last summer have not been enough to catch Trump, as the gap between them has once again widened to double digits.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who led the race in UNH’s polling in early 2023 but has recently pulled back his efforts in the state, stands at just 6% in the poll, below the 10% minimum support he would need to win delegates there per the Republican Party’s rules.
Given Haley’s rise, her fav/unfav ratings in the CNN poll are sort of staggering, speaking poorly of her chances of winning the primary – and/but also poorly of Trump’s capacity to consolidate in a general election the vote among the demos who are supporting Haley:
Trump continues to be viewed more favorably than either Haley or DeSantis within the primary electorate: 56% have a positive view of Trump, compared with 36% who feel that way about Haley and 28% about DeSantis. He is the only one of the three remaining candidates to have maintained a net positive favorability rating throughout the past year, while both Haley and DeSantis end the campaign for the Granite State in negative territory (a net negative 11 points for DeSantis, negative 4 for Haley).
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Basic problem for Haley: She literally cannot produce moments like this for the public or media.
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In this morning’s Wide World of News for Concierge Coverage members, I made the case that Donald Trump will ultimately pick Alabama Senator Katie Britt as his running mate, if he is the nominee.
The reaction has been universally positive, even from some members who don’t favor a second Trump term.
A sampling of the comments so far, all used with permission:
* Mark McKinnon: “A perfect pick. She checks every single box. And then boxes you hadn’t even thought of.”
* One of the smartest observers of politics I know: “I watched the video [of Britt] you linked too. She is more charismatic and more attractive in motion. Very smart—intelligence comes through clearly. Can’t be dismissed as a cross-wearing Mega mom with faux political aspirations. She’s the Real Deal.”
* A Republican with top-level presidential campaign experience: “Choosing Mike Pence [in 2016] was smart because it balanced Trump’s assets and reassured those concerned with his liabilities. In an election where independent voters will be key, female support pivotal and again the GOP needs a unified base, Katie Britt would be a good choice. She’s also a pro, won’t make mistakes, and lacks ego.”
In addition, I’ve heard from several members in an off-the-record capacity, all expressing praise for Britt and the value she could add to the ticket.
Lots of intrigued Republican members of the Gang of 500 and grudging acknowledgement from Democrats that she would be a strong pick.
Current and former congressional staffers, who used to count Britt as a colleague, adore and respect her. And that includes plenty of Democrats, too.
Here is a bit of the case I made for Britt being Trump’s ultimate choice:
Trump wants a young woman who speaks fluent MAGA and/but can comfortably win over hearts and minds in the suburbs of Philly, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Phoenix. (Sorry, Governor Huckabee.)
He wants someone attractive and charismatic and/but who will not be any threat to overshadow him and make mistakes. (Sorry, Congresswoman Stefanik.)
He wants someone who endorsed him early (enough) and/but who can win over Please Never Again Trump types -- the donors, Capitol Hillers, Gang of 500 members, and the press. (Sorry, Governor Noem.)
He wants someone who can go on TV and savage the Biden record without sounding harsh. (Sorry, Huckabee, Stefanik, Noem, and Kari Lake.)
He wants someone who has enough of a record to clear the commander-in-chief bar but not so much of a record that she can be attacked by the DNC oppo squad or be painted as a DC insider.
He wants someone who talks like a real, normal person and/but can also speak about policy at a high level and be a great communicator on TV.
He wants someone who is a staunch partisan and/but has bipartisan credentials.
He wants someone who will show obeisance and/but has gravitas.
He wants someone whose selection will wow the press and public and freak the heck out of the Democrats.
He wants someone who he can imagine on the debate stage with Kamala Harris -- and loving her chances.
He wants someone whose husband was an NFL player for one of his favorite teams and owners.
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Mark
