It’s a Saturday in September.
Election Day will be here before you know it.
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Scheduled for 10pm Eastern Time Saturday night: the president holds a campaign rally at the airport in Minden, NV before RON’ing in Vegas.
Why is the POTUS hauling his presidential self across all those miles on a weekend?
The Wall Street Journal has essential reads on both of the major strands teased out by this event: the fight for Nevada’s six electoral votes and the return of the Trump rallies.
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As we continue to view the presidential race through the Wide World of News prism of “Biden is ahead and favored by the fundamentals but Trump can still win,” let’s review the Electoral College map/math on some hypothetically reasonable terms.
As I have said before, as a matter of political reality and mathematics, Trump is almost certainly gong to lose without gathering Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas in his column.
None of those states is currently a sure thing for the incumbent, but, again, there ain’t nothing to discuss regarding the race for the White House if the president can’t hold serve in those six contests he won four years ago.
So, for the sake of argument, let’s say he finds a way to keep all of those key electoral votes.
My name isn’t “Nate,” but I see the biggest development in the contest of late that Trump is now playing offense in three states he lost to Hillary Clinton somewhat narrowly:
1. The aforementioned Nevada, where Hispanics and rural non-college voters are Biden trouble spots.
2. New Hampshire, where the gubernatorial race will help Trump.
3. Minnesota, where civic disorder and racial strife have produced unpredictability.
On cue, to provide us all a dose of reality and a spoonful of perception (plus Wisconsin):
(“Tomorrow” meaning Saturday.)
We know Team Biden is concerned about these three contests because of how they are allocating resources, including media money, and candidate and surrogate time.
So, as an intellectual exercise (stipulating the usual important caveats: not as a prediction nor to suggest favoritism to either side), let’s go to the map giving Trump those six states he needs, moving these three Trump-offense states to toss-up, along with the Big 4, plus the Maine and Nebraska congressional districts:
Again, I am not named “Nate,” but one can’t look at this far-from-implausible map and say this race is over.
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What’s new in the presidential race that is good for Team Trump?
Miami Herald: “A federal appeals court on Friday overturned a judge’s ruling that Floridians with felony convictions don’t have to pay off all court fees and fines before voting, dealing a setback to advocates for 2018′s Amendment 4.”
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What new in the presidential race that is good for Team Biden?
Wisconsin State Journal: Badger State judge rules Kayne West ineligible for Nov. 3rd ballot, rapid appeal to state Supreme Court expected.
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What is new essential reading on the presidential race that is good for your brain?
This Wall Street Journal editorial on how Pennsylvania needs to act to avoid a potential casting and counting nightmare.
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WHAT IS NOT NEW IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE?
* David Remnick still writing stuff like this: “If Donald Trump possessed a soul, a trace of conscience or character, he would resign the Presidency. He will not resign the Presidency.”
* Celebrities still incredulous that the president could win reelection.
* Bill Maher still incredulous that liberals and the media can’t see that the president could win reelection: “You sound like the panels I used to have on right before the last election. ... You guys are whistling past the graveyard."
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WHAT ELSE IS NEW AND IMPORTANT?
* F2F Afghan-Taliban talks get underway in Qatar.
* David Ignatius, with a Jared Kushner interview, gives a high blessing to the Bahrain-Israel accord, added to the prior UAE deal:
Kushner noted the symbolism that the Bahrain agreement was announced on the 19th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks: “On 9/11, there is no stronger counter to extremism than bringing countries together for tolerance and peace.” That statement makes a good political sound bite in this election year, but it’s also true….
The decision by two wealthy Gulf countries to recognize Israel doesn’t help the shattered nations of the Middle East, such as Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Libya. And it doesn’t represent Middle East peace, whatever may be said at the White House next week. But for a region that sometimes seems to be in slow-motion collapse, it’s a building block for a better future.
* Some developments in the George Floyd case, including a tentative disqualification of the prosecutor.
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WHAT ELSE IS IMPORTANT BUT NOT NEW?
* Fires in Oregon and elsewhere in the west causing death and destruction.
* The Trump-Fauci Odd Couple divisions continue on style and substance.
* More accusations of the politicization of science at CDC.
* Speaker Pelosi and Leader McConnell both continue to point fingers and think they are winning the PR fight.
* The latest in the Durham investigation is more house of cards, hall of mirrors, political football, and legal enigma.
* Contretemps involving Adam Schiff and the administration on a potentially explosive whistleblower, and involving the courts and the president’s taxes.
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The Big 4.2 - by Brian P. Nadeau
Arizona - Early Voting Begins October 7th
* Trump heading to PHX Monday for Latino-focused campaign roundtable. (Arizona Republic)
* Grand Canyon State voters can amend unsigned mail-in ballots until Nov. 8th Fed. judge rules. (KPNX NBC12)
* Tucson City Council Member (Ward 3) Paul Durham taking temp. leave to support husband with terminal cancer. (Arizona Daily Star)
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Michigan - Early Voting Begins September 19th
* Wolverine State records 1,313 daily coronavirus cases, highest since April. (The Detroit News)
* MSU removing name of former trustee, KKK member from building after board vote. (Lansing State Journal)
* UM issues COVID warning as student who moved around campus last week tests positive. (WXYZ ABC7)
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Nebraska-2 - Early Voting Begins October 5th
* Cornhusker State approved for extra $300/wk. FEMA-funded unemployment benefit. (Omaha World-Herald)
* State AG sends letter to Big Ten requesting fall sports cancellation docs. (KETV ABC7)
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Pennsylvania - Early Voting Begins September 15th
* Trump, Biden visits to Flight 93 Memorial in Shanksville separated by hours. (PENN LIVE Patriot-News)
* Philly’s mainstay daily publishes policy limiting use of mugshots. (The Philadelphia Inquirer)
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Wisconsin - Early Voting Begins October 15th
* Local clerks express concern about meeting state, federal mail-in ballot issuance deadlines amid court-imposed delay. (The Journal Times)
* No trick, just treats as City of Kenosha outlines Halloween doorbell-ringing hours. (Kenosha News)
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TOP STORIES – by Brian P. Nadeau
Sports: And it’s 1, 2, 3…take me out to California & Texas for MLB playoffs bubble.
Business: New App Store rules affecting Google, MSFT streaming games issued by Apple.
Entertainment: 'Wonder Woman 1984,' delayed, catching Invisible Plane for Dec. 25th arrival.
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