Nostalgic About the Future

Place your bets now....

 “The Irish are the only people in the world who are always nostalgic about the future.” 

-- Joe Biden

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DECEMBER 6, 2022 FACE-OFFS

1. Herschel Walker versus the future

OUTLOOK: Nearly every Republican with access to data is bearish on the former footballer’s prospects in Tuesday’s primary.

BET ON: Walker not becoming a senator or running for anything ever again.

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2. Rick Scott versus Mitch McConnell

OUTLOOK: A net loss of seats for the NRSC in a cycle in which they had visions of a 55-45 majority.

BET ON: Team Scott getting more of the blame.

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3. Congressional leaders with an ambitious lame duck to-do list versus Halperin’s Third Rule of Congress (Congress only acts when it absolutely has to, at the last possible moment – and sometimes not even then.)

OUTLOOK: Efforts by both parties (but mostly the Democrats) to load up the budget and Pentagon bill with unrelated want-to-pass provisions and the impending House majority means everything pushes towards the holidays, with eight simultaneous games of chicken.

BET ON: Must-pass and just 1.5 other provisions passing around Xmas.

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4. Facebook versus Capitol Hill

OUTLOOK: We have seen this film before and we will see it again.

BET ON: Facebook.

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5. Joe Biden versus those who don’t like Joe Biden’s 2024 presidential nominating calendar proposal

OUTLOOK: Georgia Republicans, Team Sanders, and New Hampshire Democrats all reject the Biden Idea, with more threads already pulled than by five bored cats working on a tattered sweater.

BET ON: A month of more twists and turns and an outcome that only hazily looks like the Biden Idea.

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6. Those who think the Mar-a-Lago dinner and trashing the Constitution represent, finally, the turning point on Donald Trump’s hold on the Republican Party versus the past as prologue

OUTLOOK: Marc Thiessen and Gerard Baker think time should be up, as a matter of principle and politics

BET ON: The voters (always, always, bet on the voters).

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7. Donald Trump versus the 2024 field

OUTLOOK: CNN says some in Trump’s orbit believe he isn’t campaigning aggressively enough after announcing his bid.

BET ON: Nothing and no one, until July 1, 2023.

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8. Glenn Youngkin versus expectations

OUTLOOK: The Associated Press says that Youngkin ’24 is made up 50% of a glass that is exactly half full and 50% of a glass that is exactly half empty.

BET ON: A late decision about whether to jump in the race, based on metrics.