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WHAT I KNOW
* The smartest and most spot-on analysis of the Senate races in the midterms was issued all the way back in the summer by one of America’s most insightful political pundits:
“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different — they're statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome…Right now, we have a 50-50 Senate and a 50-50 country, but I think when all is said and done this fall, we’re likely to have an extremely close Senate, either our side up slightly or their side up slightly.”
Yup, that mid-August declaration at a Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce luncheon by Addison Mitchell McConnell III is as true in the closing days of this campaign as it was when he uttered it.
* It says nothing good about the short-term prospects of the Democrats or the medium-term prospects of Vice President Harris that she is spending the week in the very Bluest of states -- Massachusetts, New York, and Illinois (akin to President Biden’s closing the campaign season in Maryland, My Maryland):
* Late Democratic spending in House districts previously thought to be safe leads to the conclusion that the party is likely to lose some unexpected incumbents (and Democratic-held open seats), including, I would guess, in New York and other Blue havens, meaning we could end up in net R +30 territory.
* The voters who will decide the midterms are paying less attention to the details of the Pelosi matter than elites are.
* A rained-out World Series game is not like kissing Nastassja Kinski.
* The news cycle’s best explanation of the likely Red tsunami comes from Gerard Baker, deploying the metaphor of Monty Python’s dead parrot:
Two forms of denialism are on the ballot in next week’s midterm elections. Democrats hope that historical denial—the refusal by a disturbingly large number of Republican candidates to acknowledge the legitimacy of the 2020 election result—will prompt enough voters to shy away from the GOP at least to deprive it of a Senate majority.
But the other form of denialism looks likely in the end to prove more toxic and potent for voters: the rejection by Democrats of the present economic and social reality of the country and their role in bringing it about.
* Elon Musk is like a less stable Kim Jong-un (who is like a less stable Ye).
* Democrats are going to look back at 2022 and wonder why they didn’t listen to those among them who pointed out back in the spring that the problem wasn’t messaging on the economy, crime, and immigration – it was a problem of policy.
* When it comes to the media, what doesn’t kill Kari Lake makes her stronger – a la Trump ’16.
* The more things change, the more the New York Post stays the same:
* Democrats are still underestimating how much the issues of education (fairly) and IRS agents (demagogically) are hurting them politically.
* The legislative agenda of the lame duck session will be determined by the outcome of the midterms and the realities of space, time, and distance.
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WHAT I DON’T KNOW
* Why the only two instances of Donald Trump demonstrating public discipline occurred at the end of the 2016 and 2022 campaign seasons.
* How to stop gun violence in Chicago.
* Which of these Monday tweets from the “Twitter Complaint Hotline Operator” will matter most long term:
* How the Supreme Court will rule on affirmative action in the wake of Monday’s arguments.
* Why there is so much elite U.S. interest in the Brazil election (as compared to the normal level of reaction to the political outcomes in other lands).
* Why it was apparently so easy to break into the Pelosi home.
* When and how the war in Ukraine will end.
* How Doctor Oz is going to win with such cruddy fav/unfav numbers and with his having to outrun the top of the ticket in an extremely lopsided gubernatorial contest.
* Why the Iowa Senate race and Oklahoma and Kansas gubernatorial contests are what they are.
* What percentage of the blame Donald Trump will get if Oz, Walker, Vance, and Masters all lose (which is still possible!).
* Who is more brilliant than Taylor Swift (if anyone).
* How much of his massive campaign bank account Ron DeSantis will spend down in the closing week – and how his reelect numbers with key demographics (Hispanic, female, and Black voters) will compare to Jeb Bush’s reelect figures.
* If House Republicans will have learned anything from the personnel decisions and staging expertise that were part of the success of the 1/6 hearings.
* How serious Kari Lake and Glenn Youngkin are about 2024.
* How much it costs to produce an episode of “The Five” (not counting talent pay).
* What Attorney General Garland is going to do with the timing of four potentially parallel events: the Joe Biden announcement about 2024; the Hunter Biden charging decision; the Donald Trump announcement about 2024; the Donald Trump charging decision.
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ESSENTIAL READING
* Republican strategist Doug Heye, with a Washington Post op-ed piece condemning his own party (and the Democrats) for their modern day sins, the kind of clear-eyed, civil analysis/rebuke of both sides that is all too rare:
More and more in our politics, the loudest, angriest, most divisive voices get the most attention (and money). Real solutions, and the politicians who put their heads down to do hard work, get short shrift. Collectively, we have to lower the temperature. People keep getting hurt. We’re very lucky no one has been killed — and I worry I need to emphasize “yet.”
As a Republican, I know the original sin begins with us. Republicans — not all, to be sure, but enough — vilified Barack Obama’s most personal attributes. His religion was questioned. Racist cartoons were common. So were jokes about Obama’s African heritage (“Kenya hear me,” Texas Rep. Louis Gohmert said at a House Republican Conference meeting). Rebukes came, but they weren’t loud or frequent enough. The old “not one of us” racist trope remained.
Then along came Donald Trump, whose campaign message was essentially yelling “fire” in a crowded political theater. When Trump urged his supporters to “knock the crap” out of protesters, they obliged, just as extremists have when Trump told them in 2020 to “stand back and stand by.” Trump’s rhetoric — years of picking at our every division — made the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection inevitable.
It should remain an indelible stain on the soul of a party that continues to support Trump, whether out of opportunity or fear.
But if the Republican embrace of Trump represents our sin, Democrats should not be sharpening stones to throw.
Toxic rhetoric led to a Bernie Sanders supporter opening fire at a 2017 baseball practice among congressional Republicans, critically injuring Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) and wounding three others. This summer, a man with a gun was arrested near the home of Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh. Recall that before the Supreme Court heard arguments in an abortion case in 2020, Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), said of Kavanaugh and another Trump-appointed justice, “You have released the whirlwind, and you will pay the price.” The Republican nominee for governor of New York, Rep. Lee Zeldin, was attacked at a July event by a man with a knife.
*
* The current century, in three tweets:
