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What America still lacks: COVID testing capacity; tracking and tracing capability; sufficient numbers of vaccinated people; public service ads that are worth a darn; any sort of national consensus about best practices and mandates for citizens and institutions; an actual light at the end of the tunnel; unity; The Presumption of Grace.
I have never been apocalyptic about the pandemic.
Like you, I have tried hard to understand the state of scientific knowledge every step of the way.
Like you, I can simultaneously hold in my head different realities:
1. Omicron is spreading fast and furious (as evidenced by everyone hearing daily about new infections, including ones involving folks to whom we have been recently exposed), and/but omicron seems to generally cause mild symptoms among the vaccinated.
2. Even if (IF) the new variant is less dangerous, it could still massively disrupt much of American life well into 2022.
Well….
Roughly, there are two scenarios, it seems.
A. Omicron is going to spread massively but not be that disruptive.
Or:
B. Omicron is going to spread massively and be very disruptive.
I think the most unsettling reality right now that is not getting enough attention is that Option B is probably going to happen even if omicron is, in fact, a milder strain.
So, first, do we know it is milder?
We don’t.
Per this essential reading New York Times story:
“I still can’t quite wrap my head around how quickly this is moving,” said Joseph Fauver, a genomic epidemiologist at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. “I think it’s going to be really bad. I don’t know how else to put it.”
It is not yet clear whether the variant causes milder illness than earlier variants. But there is a concern among some scientists that the notion has gained wide circulation and that the pandemic-weary public has let down its guard.
“This is an incredibly contagious pathogen, and we don’t know yet its impact on severity and death,” said Galit Alter, an immunologist and virologist affiliated with the Ragon Institute of Massachusetts General Hospital, M.I.T. and Harvard.
“We have to reestablish the importance and rigor of the first wave,” she added. “We are back in ‘flatten the curve’ mode….”
Can you count the comic/tragic number of hedges in this Associated Press lede?
JOHANNESBURG (AP) — South Africa’s noticeable drop in new COVID-19 cases in recent days may signal that the country’s dramatic omicron-driven surge has passed its peak, medical experts say.
Daily virus case counts are notoriously unreliable, as they can be affected by uneven testing, reporting delays and other fluctuations. But they are offering one tantalizing hint — far from conclusive yet — that omicron infections may recede quickly after a ferocious spike.
Here’s what most concerns me this morning: The massive scale of spread that is apparently in motion threatens major disruptions that have the potential to cascade through some of the most fundamental areas of American life – the economy, health care, education.
1. THE ECONOMY
Just as Americans and Europeans were eagerly awaiting their most normal holiday season in a couple of years, the omicron variant has unleashed a fresh round of fear and uncertainty — for travelers, shoppers, party-goers and their economies as a whole….
A heightened sense of anxiety has begun to erode the willingness of some people and some businesses to carry on as usual in the face of the extraordinarily contagious omicron variant, which has fast become the dominant version of the virus in the United States.
2. HEALTH CARE
In Rhode Island, there is little evidence that current measures are enough to contain the latest surge. In some hospitals, emergency room waits have stretched to more than 12 hours, and doctors are treating patients in parking lots, Dr. Ranney said.
“There are no nurses,” she said. “There are no beds. There is no way to get an IV in folks out in the waiting room. There’s nothing you can do….”
Standards of care may need to be reassessed, experts said. Staffing shortages may require infected health care workers to continue working if possible, despite the risk to patients. (Mind-blowing emphasis added.)
The U.S. health-care profession is suffering its own Great Resignation, pushing more hospitals into financial distress just as a winter surge of the coronavirus hits….
Across the country, hospitals are buckling under the strain of nursing shortfalls and the spiraling cost of hiring replacements.
3. EDUCATION
You think physically and mentally exhausted nurses and teachers are going to stay on the job if the ones for whom they care develop massive rates of infection?
I’d like to think “yes,” but if past is prologue, then, “no.”
Sorry for the stream of worry, but now check out this strikingly negative Politico story about President Biden’s repetitive Tuesday afternoon remarks:
[H]e must know he faces a near-impossible task, as he tries to glue back together some sense of unity in a Humpty Dumpty of a nation consumed by disease, division and distrust. The combination of a worn-out public, mixed messaging from health officials and stiff skepticism from large swathes of the country mean the president will struggle to break through.
And the Omicron surge couldn’t come at a worse time, both for Biden and the country. With the virus again ascendant, his domestic agenda in retreat and his approval numbers sagging, Biden needs to build confidence and project competence on the no. 1 issue of the day. Meanwhile, the new variant is striking just as millions of people head home for the holidays.
But restoring trust, and his own political sheen, is difficult when Biden is also the de facto voice of pandemic response at a time of plummeting trust in science and expertise, particularly (though not exclusively) among Republicans….
And exhausted after nearly two years of pandemic with more hardship coming, people want certainty. But in the midst of a fast-moving and ever-changing pandemic of an ever-mutating virus, neither Biden nor Anthony Fauci nor any other fact-based health or science spokesperson can give them that — even if virus-skeptic, anti-vax podcasters and YouTubers and outside-the-mainstream doctors on right-wing TV promise otherwise.
Science is incremental. In the best case, understanding changes. And in this complicated global crisis, both under former President Donald Trump and Biden, everybody has gotten stuff wrong.
It appears that for tens of millions, the final days of 2021 are going to be both a holiday and a holiday from history (and science), as vacations and family visits proceed apace and as planned.
But I predict that January is going to see a massive dose of reality.
Canaries in the national coal mine will include the staging of the State of the Union address, and, before that, this, just a couple of weeks away:
Organizers of CES 2022 are pressing ahead with plans to host tens of thousands of people in Las Vegas next month, setting up the technology conference as a test for mass business gatherings at a time when surging Covid-19 cases are prompting other companies and groups to change plans.
Several participants including Amazon.com Inc., Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. and Twitter Inc., and at least one keynote speaker, T-Mobile’s chief executive, have withdrawn from the event.
The Consumer Technology Association is kicking off the biggest U.S. tech conference the first week of January with a scaled-back crowd and vaccine and mask requirements. While there’s a digital component, the organization expects 50,000 to 75,000 attendees at the Las Vegas Convention Center and other venues. (Wall Street Journal)
Searching for silver linings, I see two mirages:
1. Regarding the Biden-Trump Tuesday lovefest – wonderful for a day, but only a fool would predict it will last (or have any impact on facts on the ground).
EXCLUSIVE: Former President Trump said Tuesday that he is "very appreciative" and "surprised" that President Biden thanked him and his administration for their success in making COVID-19 vaccines available to the public, telling Fox News that "tone" and "trust" are critical in getting Americans vaccinated….
In an exclusive interview with Fox News Tuesday evening, Trump reacted to Biden acknowledging his administration’s efforts.
"I'm very appreciative of that — I was surprised to hear it," Trump told Fox News. "I think it was a terrific thing, and I think it makes a lot of people happy."
Trump then repeated that he was "a little bit surprised."
"I think he did something very good," Trump said. "You know, it has to be a process of healing in this country, and that will help a lot."
2. “Emily in Paris” is back! But I can already tell it isn’t as good as Season 1.
Like the pandemic itself: Another season, all too familiar, streaming on an endless loop, and inspiring ennui that engulfs.
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