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There are two ways to look at Donald Trump’s underdog, long-shot potential paths to victory.
1. Assume that the polls are totally wrong by a lot in many states. Under this scenario even a state such as Wisconsin (where the president continues to campaign in the closing days) should be considered in play.
OR
2. Assume that most of the polling is close to right but that there is a way for it to be just wrong enough that Trump can squeak back into office, with an Electoral College victory, even as he gets creamed in the national popular vote, because, hypothetically:
* Trump has an extraordinarily superior ground game
* Trump gets a burst of momentum at the end
* enthusiasm for Trump’s campaign in the key states is more than the combined enthusiasm for Joe Biden + against Trump
* Democrats lose a lot of votes from ballots getting stuck in the mail and ballots filled out incorrectly, especially by first-time voters
* in a year of overwhelming turnout, Team Trump suppresses enough of the “right” votes in the right places
Scenario #1 is far less likely, so let’s focus on #2.
Start with our Significant 6.
Trump must win ALL of these to have any chance. If Biden is declared the winner in even one of them, with a margin beyond which Trump could hope to challenge in any way, this thing is over. That could happen before midnight on Tuesday.
I will say again (although some readers will ignore it): Joe Biden is the heavy favorite to win; a big Biden win is more likely than a narrow Trump win; Biden has many more paths to 270; I am neither predicting nor rooting for a Trump victory.
Although Trump trails in the public polling in some of the Significant 6, as I wrote the other day, the margins are small enough that I would not be surprised if he won them all, as he did in 2016.
So, take Trump’s base states:
And then add the Significant 6, all of which are, again, well still within the normal margin of error and in some of which Trump seems to have improved his standing this week:
That still leaves him short of 270.
Building on these states, I see three paths that are at all plausible right now. Again, any of these combos would require him winning states in which the polling suggests he is currently behind, and in some cases substantially behind.
At this point there is NO option that does not involve winning Pennsylvania too.
So there is the PA + AZ option:
The PA + NV option:
And the PA + NE 2 + ME 2 option (which produces a tie):
The drop off after these three scenarios is quite large, meaning if Trump lost some of the above states he would have to win places such as Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota to make up what he lost, where the president’s deficits appear to be even greater.
Given standard margins of error, Trump is now effectively tied in PA, AZ, and NV, along with the Significant 6 (margin of error, as you know, applies to both candidates’ numbers).
If Trump wins them all (superior ground game, hidden Trump voters, Philadelphia fallout, natural tightening as Republicans come home, spoiled or lost Democratic ballots, voter suppression, etc), plus NE 2, he is at 285.
How could anyone say that Trump winning any of those 10 states at this point would be some huge shocking surprise? If he can win one of them, he can, theoretically, win all of them.
Again, less likely than likely, but not wholly unlikely.
(Even a virulently anti-Trump Washington Post writer, in trying to make the case that Trump basically has not shot, actually makes the case that Trump has a shot, similar to what I say here.)
(Similar to the latest Cook Political Report analysis.)
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And for those readers who mostly get their news from the Dominant Media that caters to the Blues, consider the difference between the perspective of those who create the Blue News and a portion of America that might verge on 50% (and which includes some people who aren’t pure Red):
DM: Pro-more restrictions to curb the pandemic.
Non-DM: Fed up with restrictions, want to open their businesses, and get on with their lives.
*
DM: Too many people are hospitalized and dying from COVID and dramatic steps must be taken to stop the spread.
Non-DM: This pandemic is happening all over the world and unless we want to shelter in place again until there is a vaccine, we are going to have to learn to live with it, as unfortunate as that is.
*
DM: In dealing with the pandemic, Republican governors in Red states are the enemies of the people.
Non-DM: In dealing with the pandemic, thank goodness for Republican governors in Red states.
*
DM: Trump acting all macho for beating the virus is such a load of crap.
Non-DM: Good for Trump to beat the virus.
*
DM: Black Lives Matter is a wonderful, long overdue movement for peace, justice, and the American way.
Non-DM: A much more jaundiced view of BLM.
*
DM: Looting and rioting in the aftermath of police shootings are isolated and minor, although unacceptable/unfortunate.
Non-DM: Looting and rioting happen because of the liberal policies of Democratic mayors and governors.
*
DM: Every Black life lost at the hands of white police officers is an unjustified tragedy.
Non-DM: Let’s look at the facts of each incident.
*
DM: Where’s Hunter? Who cares?
Non-DM: Hunter is on Tucker and all over my social media feeds and why isn’t this being covered by the DM?
*
DM: Of course Joe Biden is up to the job of being president.
Non-DM: Almost no one we know thinks Joe Biden is fully up to the job of being president.
*
DM: Wasn’t Kamala Harris great on “60 Minutes”?!
Non-DM: Did you see that moment on “60 Minutes” where Kamala Harris let loose that laugh?
*
DM: Regardless of how many jobs it creates, fracking is bad for the environment and extends our dependence on fossil fuels.
Non-DM: Why would anyone want to destroy good American jobs?
*
DM: Wokeness in education and the workplace is a welcome and historic movement of liberation and equality.
Non-DM: Too say all this has gone way too far in the direction of PC is to vastly understate the situation.
*
DM: That’s Trump! Putting himself in a campaign video that shows an egomaniac living in denial.
Non-DM: That’s Trump! Putting himself in a campaign video that shows an egomaniac and a leader getting things done and keeping his promises.
*
DM: Donald Trump is a coarse, norm-busting idiot who does not deserve to be reelected.
Non-DM: Donald Trump is a coarse, norm-busting idiot who just might be a better choice than Joe Biden.
Could these stark differences both impact the race and keep those in the Dominant Media and those whose reality is shaped by the Dominant Media from seeing what is happening?
You betcha.
(Daniel Henninger of the Wall Street Journal makes the case for the Non-DMers here.)
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To those pro-Biden readers about to break off and send me an email saying “Yesterday, you wrote all about how 2020 was just like 2016 and today you are about the only non-biased reporter suggesting Trump has a not-insignificant chance of winning. Why are you more bullish on his chances than the hosts of ‘Fox and Friends’ are and why are you trying to freak us out???”:
Please see above. Biden is the clear favorite to win.
In the ways that matter in determining the outcome, 2020 is NOT 2016.
* Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton.
* Donald Trump has a multiyear record as president that a majority of the American people see as an abject failure.
* There are hundreds of thousands of buyer’s remorse voters who supported Trump four years ago and will not even consider repeating what they consider to be a grievous error.
* There are hundreds of thousands of voters who did not vote in 2016 and have and will vote this year because they want Trump gone.
* The Green and Libertarian candidates will get far fewer votes than four years ago, making Trump’s capacity to win states with smallish pluralities right at his ceiling of support impossible.
* The mobilization of retired military leaders, prominent Never Trump Republican politicians, scientists, health care professionals, former prosecutors, economists, intelligence experts, athletes, celebrities, and more more more is far greater than it was for Hillary Clinton.
* 2016 was a choice election; 2020 is largely a referendum on an incumbent with a low approval rating in a campaign ending with the stock market going down and the infection rate going up, with unemployment, evictions, loss of health insurance, etc hanging over Americans from coast to coast.
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ESSENTIAL READING
* If Trump wins the Significant 6, we could well be going into overtime, courtesy of Pennsylvania, as this most-essential-reading-story of the news cycle from the Philadelphia Inquirer makes clear:
Elections officials in Cumberland County, just outside Harrisburg, won’t begin counting mail ballots until the day after Election Day, citing the need to focus their attention and resources on in-person voting next Tuesday.
“The Board of Elections, comprised of the Cumberland County Commissioners, is committed to counting every vote and not certifying the results in Cumberland County until every eligible vote, whether completed at the polling place or via mail-in or absentee ballot, is properly counted,” Gary Eichelberger, chair of the county commissioners, said in a statement Wednesday.
And officials in Erie County, in Northwestern Pennsylvania, plan to only count mail ballots for a few hours late Tuesday night, CNN reported….
[T]he decision by Erie and Cumberland officials means key votes won’t be known on election night. Erie County was one of three that swung from voting for Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016. Cumberland County is home to some of the politically changing suburbs of Harrisburg and will be one of the areas that will help determine who wins the state…
Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar, the state’s top elections official, told reporters Wednesday that she would push counties to count mail ballots on Election Day.
“The sooner they start, the sooner they’ll finish,” she said, though she noted the law does not require Election Day vote-tallying. “We’re going to be urging in every way possible that every county start on Tuesday.”
* For those of you who still don’t understand how Trump could lose support in the suburbs and still win the Keystone State, please check out this long Associated Press story all the way to the end.
* Politico with a complex and longish story on the Supreme Court’s Wednesday ballot counting moves – and why one should not assume that a 5 or 6 justice move featuring Amy Coney Barrett won’t still hand the election to Donald Trump. NB the sequestering of later-arriving ballots in Pennsylvania.
* Rich Lowry explaining how the 5 or 6 will explain things if they hand the election to Trump.
* Ben White of Politico on what Thursday’s massive GDP growth numbers will mean substantively and maybe politically.
* The New York Times on how the U.S. government is gaming out potential foreign attempts to influence the election outcome and how Americans feel about it.
* The Wall Street Journal editorial board gives a mostly unbreathless explanation of the import of the Tony Bobulinski-Hunter Biden matter for Joe Biden.
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THE STATES THAT WILL PICK THE PRESIDENT - by Brian P. Nadeau
Arizona
* Kamala Harris meets with Latina business owners, headlines Pima Community College drive-in rally during Tucson campaign stop. (Arizona Daily Star)
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Georgia
* Latest Monmouth University poll shows Biden, Democratic Senate candidates seizing late lead in Peach State. (Georgia Public Broadcasting)
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Florida
* State Supreme Court unanimously dismisses challenge to Nov. 3rd ballot’s proposed open primary amendment. (Tallahassee Democrat)
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Iowa
* As COVID cases surge, state elections officials express concern about potential effect on key workers, poll volunteers. (KGAN CBS2)
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Maine
* State ACLU experiencing strong voter protection hotline demand expands hours, volunteers. (WMTW ABC8)
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Michigan
* Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has '…a lot of concerns going into this election' rooted in coronavirus case surge. (Detroit Free Press)
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Nebraska
* Hundreds at Trump Omaha rally endure freezing temperatures, 30 receiving medical attention as transportation plan breaks down. (Omaha World-Herald)
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New Hampshire
* Despite COVID, nursing home residents successfully casting absentee ballots under 2019 law allowing facility administrator, family member assistance. (New Hampshire Public Radio)
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Nevada
* Thursday Pence rally in Reno capped at 250 attendees with masks mandated. (KTNV ABC13)
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North Carolina
* Over 50% NC registered voters have cast ballots; 2.8M in-person, ~820K mail-in. (WNCN CBS17)
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Ohio
* 'This is where the action is,' says elections employee as bellwether Stark County sees enthusiastic early voters. (WJW FOX8)
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Pennsylvania
* SCOTUS denies state GOP request to review +3-day mail-in ballot acceptance with Justice Amy Coney Barrett not participating. (Spotlight PA)
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Texas
* U.S. District Judge overrules Gov. Abbott’s mask mandate exception for polling places, appeal filed with 5th circuit. (Texas Tribune)
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Wisconsin
* Trump makes 3rd Badger State stop in a week Friday for Green Bay rally. (The Journal Times)
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TOP STORIES – by Brian P. Nadeau
Sports: Dodgers Justin Turner return to field for team’s World Series celebration after positive COVID test 'wrong,' says MLB.
Business: COVID concerns drive U.S. stock market’s worst performance since June.
Entertainment: Streaming service Peacock cancels 'Brave New World' after first season, looking to sell series.
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