In conclusion: Biden’s nomination hand is strengthened, even as his general election position remains (as it was before the debate) weak.
Here is last night’s 2WAY, analyzing the landscape in the wake of the press conference, featuring some super interesting members of the 2WAY community in colloquy with Joe Scarborough, Lauren Leader, Liam Donovan, and more:
BIDEN’S HOLD ON THE NOMINATION STRENGTHENS
Watch the full Clyburn interview here.
BIDEN’S GENERAL ELECTION PROSPECTS LOOK WEAK (STILL)
* Read Doug Sosnik’s latest New York Times piece on the Electoral College:
President Biden has spent much of 2024 with a more challenging path to winning a second presidential term in November than Donald Trump. But for reasons that have become glaringly obvious, that path has all but vanished.
Mr. Trump is now the clear front-runner to be the next president of the United States.
As I did for Times Opinion in April, I’ve drawn on my years as a Democratic strategist to look at polling, advertising and campaign spending in the key states in this election. As several maps illustrate below, I’ve never seen such a grim Electoral College landscape for Mr. Biden: He not only faces losing battleground states he won in 2020, he is also at risk of losing traditional Democratic states like Minnesota and New Hampshire, which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama carried. If current trends continue, Mr. Trump could rack up one of the most decisive presidential victories since 2008.
Mr. Biden’s problems run much deeper than one bad debate. By spring, he had the lowest job approval average of any recent president seeking re-election since George H.W. Bush in 1992. His support has dropped by nearly a net 10 points since the 2022 midterm elections.
See attached for Doug’s additional analysis of the race.
In conclusion II: Those Democrats who want Joe Biden out — whether because they think he can’t win, because of his decline in mental acuity, or both — have a theoretically strong hard and a politically very weak one. The pundit/CW whiplash continues: At this writing, Biden stays.
There will be at least one new national poll out this weekend (Fox News), but with the Washington Post having it tied and NPR having Biden ahead, why would the man give up the nomination because a handful of House members, one senator, and a lot of cranky Obama-Clinton donors are publicly calling for him to quit (even if many more are calling for it privately)??!!
To be continued….