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Thinking about the arc of the Biden presidency, the midterms, and the prospects of the real lives of real people improving, one fundamental political question emerges:
If the reality/perception that the pandemic and inflation are still out of control persists, can Joe Biden’s job approval numbers meaningfully improve?
And, then, a second question:
If Biden’s job approval numbers are in as bad shape in November as they are now, how poorly will Democrats do in the midterms?
I believe the answers to those two questions are
1. No.
2. Very poorly.
To be sure, there are other political landmines strewn across the presidential path from here until November: Russia, China, the border, crime, the potential collapse of the Biden legislative agenda, etc.
But if you look at the attitudes of voters, the daily flow of news, and the big, historic Tectonic plates which determine the contours of our elections, the twin reinforcing threats of COVID and inflation loom largest now. And will likely continue to do so.
The White House has settled into the textbook Spin 101 rhetoric on both issues: We know things are tough out there, but President Biden’s bold action has us on the path to make things better.
Here is a classic of the genre, from Wednesday:
Statement by President Biden on Consumer Price Index
Today’s report—which shows a meaningful reduction in headline inflation over last month, with gas prices and food prices falling—demonstrates that we are making progress in slowing the rate of price increases. At the same time, this report underscores that we still have more work to do, with price increases still too high and squeezing family budgets.
Inflation is a global challenge, appearing in virtually every developed nation as it emerges from the pandemic economic slump. America is fortunate that we have one of the fastest growing economies—thanks in part to the American Rescue Plan—which enables us to address price increases and maintain strong, sustainable economic growth. That is my goal and I am focused on reaching it every day.
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This attempt at a balancing act – we feel your pain, but we are reducing your pain, even though we know you still are in pain – could conceivably work if, in fact, Americans in large numbers see the impact of the pandemic and inflation recede tangibly by Labor Day.
And/but here is an essential reading Washington Post story on the political peril Team Biden-Harris-Klain-Pelosi-Schumer face from the inflation beast, which at best will remain an endemic factor for the balance of 2022.
Key quote, from Democratic pollster Celinda Lake:
“The volatility is so great right now that voters are almost shellshocked. The way people describe it is they’re on a roller coaster and they want to get off.”
Read the Associated Press account of the Biden Thursday morning event (“an update on his Administration’s whole-of-government COVID-19 surge response”) and the pattern and trend line become clear: It is now almost certainly the case that both inflation and the pandemic will be dominant political realities for the midterms.
(An op-ed piece in the Washington Post warns schools might have to close because of personnel issues.)
Wednesday’s landmark Quinnipiac data on Biden can be viewed in two ways.
One, of a piece with the remarkably consistent polling we have seen for months in credible surveys, almost all of which suggest the president’s job approval continues to creep down, almost never rising, and with the ultimate danger that loss of more support from independents and on the left could lead to a floor that is more like the low 30s (high 20s?) than the low 40s.
You will want to read the entire survey, but here is some:
BIDEN JOB APPROVALS
Americans give President Joe Biden a negative 33 - 53 percent job approval rating, while 13 percent did not offer an opinion. In November 2021, Americans gave Biden a negative 36 - 53 percent job approval rating with 10 percent not offering an opinion.
Among Democrats in today's poll, 75 percent approve, 14 percent disapprove and 11 percent did not offer an opinion.
Among Democrats in November's poll, 87 percent approved, 7 percent disapproved and 6 percent did not offer an opinion.
Among registered voters in today's poll, Biden receives a negative 35 - 54 percent job approval rating with 11 percent not offering an opinion.
In November, registered voters gave him a negative 38 - 53 percent job approval rating with 9 percent not offering an opinion.
What is driving a lot of the political descent are twin themes that parallel the pandemic/inflation issues: credibility and strength.
Or, to be more precise, the perception in some quarters that because Joe Biden at times comes up short on the former it drains his capacity to project the latter.
Read Karl Rove’s fact-based description of President Biden’s Georgia voting speech and ask Jen Psaki if she can dispute a single sentence of it.
Read the Washington Post’s fact check of a Biden claim about being arrested in a civil rights protest – a fact check that yielded a dreaded four Pinocchios – and ask Jen Psaki if this kind of behavior is a one-off or something more.
The Republican Party has a lot of problems of its own, starting with Donald Trump and Kevin McCarthy.
But the complicated stew of COVID, inflation, poll numbers, lack of credibility, and a perception of weakness presents Team Biden and the Democratic Party with a series of pre-midterm challenges that currently defy solution.
And that is before the likely collapse of both the voting legislation gambit and Build Back Better as the House passed it.
Six weeks until the State of the Union address.
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If I could start today’s edition of the Wide World of News over again, I might have led with this:
But, in reality, there is only one lede story – or, rather, lede video, and this is it and you should watch it at least twice:
RIP, the great Ronnie Spector.
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