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10:00 AM THE PRESIDENT holds a secure video call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia
Situation Room
Closed Press
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President Biden: Greetings, Mr. President, Vladimir. As they say in my country, let’s get after it.
President Putin: I will control this agenda, but nice try.
Biden: I must insist by starting out making it clear that we know exactly what you are doing with Ukraine. Encircling them on three sides with military forces, trying to destabilize them with cyberwarfare and social media propaganda. We won’t stand for an invasion. Europe is united against you, standing with the United States.
Putin: Your threats are empty, since we both know you will not commit to using American military force to protect Ukraine. You are a baby paper tiger.
Biden: We can sanction you back to the Stone Age, cut off your banks’ ability to convert rubles to dollars, and destroy the secondary market for your debt. We can even cut off your access to Swift, which would give you a big problem on the domestic front.
Putin: What’s mine is mine and what’s yours we will discuss.
Biden: You need to take this seriously. I know what kind of person you are. I’m under no illusions. You cannot invade Ukraine without serious consequences.
Putin: Joe, rule out NATO membership for Ukraine and we can have a serious conversation.
Biden: You know I can’t do that. We want a diplomatic solution here.
Putin: Then rule out NATO expansion. I’ve told you for years that that is the thing that freaks me out.
Biden: Macron, Merkel, Draghi, Boris Johnson, NATO, and the EU are all with me on this, we need to work through the Normandy Format to resolve this and protect Ukrainian sovereignty.
Putin: This is all quite lamentable. You know Europe isn’t really with you when it comes to energy and trade. They will tell you what you want to your face, but facts on the ground matter. Maybe we should hold an in-person summit in Crimea in January, and you can invite your European pals and see who comes. Or maybe invite Prime Minister Modi, who sends his regards. I’m sure your CIA told you about the two dozen deals Modi and I signed yesterday on regional security, trade, and more. India has agreed on another decade of military cooperation with Russia, including buying more S-400 surface-to-air missile systems from me. Modi doesn’t give a crap about your threat of sanctions. We also agreed to a new joint venture in India to manufacture more than 600,000 of our AK-203 assault rifles. All these folks — your “allies” — are afraid of me and need me. And there’s nothing you can do about it.
Biden: We are united.
Putin: Stop your creeping expansion towards my borders. I’m going to share my screen and show you the legally-binding guarantee document I want you to sign, promising no further expansion our way, and pledging to keep specific American weapons systems out of the region. Let’s have a summit somewhere soon and get this signed.
Biden: I’ve got to deal with my legislative agenda, inflation, the pandemic, and China. I can’t be flying around the world because you want to show your suffering people a dog-and-pony display that “proves” you are still a superpower.
Putin: Guarantee my security or kiss Ukraine goodbye. As your CIA director said Monday, “I would never underestimate President Putin’s risk appetite on Ukraine.” Mr. Burns gets so much wrong, but he was for once right about that.
Biden: Let’s de-escalate through diplomacy. Don’t cut off Ukrainian electricity or pull some other stunt to ratchet this up. I will not be intimidated. I know you. You can’t afford more sanctions. The world is united against you.
Putin: Check your calendar, Joe. Europe is about to get really cold and they need my gas. As you said, you have a lot of other stuff on your plate. Rattle all the sabers you want. You have zero leverage over me. Germany and France are distracted now, too. Your aggressive and hostile rhetoric is meaningless. If you want to reduce tensions, guarantee my security.
Biden: We need to leave time to talk about strategic stability, nuclear weapons and space, and Iran.
Putin: Boring. Let me give you a long speech about a bear and a little boy who talked via Zoom. It will sound to you like an old Russian allegory. But it isn’t.
Biden: I don’t have time to listen to one of your run-out-the-clock filibusters. This call is over.
****
President Biden inherited from his several immediate predecessors a near-complete lack of leverage over Russia and Putin. Despite hours of talks with allies around the world, especially in Europe, Team Biden has not increased the amount of leverage it has over Russia – in fact, by some measures, American leverage has decreased this year. Putin remains ruthless, smart, and very aware of what buttons to press -- and when -- to maximize his power at home and on the world stage.
Will Tuesday’s call increase American leverage or change the facts on the ground along the Russian-Ukrainian border?
Ask the “free” people of Crimea.
America and the West need a solution to Putin.
Team Biden hasn’t found one yet.
****
For all the latest news on the Biden-Putin virtual summit and everything else, check out the 24/7 website the Walking Duck.