Putin's Plan B
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The two most important Ukraine-Russia pieces today are a Wall Street Journal News story and a Tom Friedman column, both of which talk about Putin’s “Plan B.”
After Russian forces failed to secure a quick victory over Ukraine, senior U.S. officials see signs the Kremlin is shifting to a new strategy to secure key territorial objectives while seeking leverage to compel the Ukrainian government to accept neutrality between Russia and the West….
Mr. Putin would also continue his military pressure, including the pummeling of Ukrainian cities, calculating that it will lead Mr. Zelensky to abandon his hopes of joining the West and agree to a neutral status and other Russian demands.
Should Mr. Putin’s demands for territory and neutrality be rebuffed, he is expected to try to hold all of the ground his forces have taken, and fight on, U.S. officials said. “Based on our assessments militarily, it does appear that he is reverting to siege tactics,” said another U.S. official….
The assessment of Mr. Putin’s “Plan B,” as one official called it, comes with a number of important caveats. U.S. officials note Mr. Putin might expand his war aims, should his military begin to have more success against Ukraine’s forces. The status of the capital remains an open question, and given stout Ukrainian resistance, it is unclear whether the Russian military can marshal sufficient troops to tightly cordon off Kyiv and take the Ukrainian capital, some U.S. officials say.
So, there you have the question of the hour: Will the pressure on NATO countries from all the refugees that Putin’s war machine is creating — more and more each day — trump the pressure being created on his stalled army on the ground in Ukraine and on his economy back home — more and more each day?
The answer to that question should determine when and how this war ends — whether with a clear winner and loser or, maybe more likely, with some kind dirty compromise tilted for or against Putin.
I say “maybe” because Putin may feel he cannot tolerate any kind of draw or dirty compromise. He may feel that anything other than a total victory is a humiliation that would undermine his authoritarian grip on power. In that case, he could opt for a plan C — which, I am guessing, would involve air or rocket attacks on Ukrainian military supply lines across the border in Poland.
Poland is a NATO member, and any attack on its territory would require every other NATO member to come to Poland’s defense. Putin may believe that if he can force that issue, and some NATO members balk at defending Poland, NATO could fracture. It would certainly trigger heated debates inside every NATO country — especially in the United States — about getting directly involved in a potential World War III with Russia. No matter what happens in Ukraine, if Putin could splinter NATO, that would be an achievement that could mask all his other losses.
If Putin’s plans A, B and C all fail, though, I fear that he would be a cornered animal and he could opt for plan D — launching either chemical weapons or the first nuclear bomb since Nagasaki. That is a hard sentence to write, and an even worse one to contemplate. But to ignore it as a possibility would be naïve in the extreme.
HALPERIN SAYS: The Wall Street Journal ed board urges the West not to go wobbly now, but it isn’t clear that Europe and the U.S. can tolerate this war as long as Putin can. Key: Don’t lose the China thread.
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The Financial Times with an important reminder:
Kyiv says it has lost 1,300 troops compared with an estimated 7,000 killed, wounded or imprisoned for Russia, according to US estimates. But western officials and analysts said the Ukrainian losses were likely far higher: most agreed that an equivalent loss rate to Russia was plausible, equating to about 10 per cent of Ukraine’s troops.
Hundreds of Ukrainian tanks and vehicles have also been destroyed, said one Nato official. “I can tell you that western arms supplies to Ukraine are absolutely critical at this point,” he said. “Without them I think we’d be in a very different place, notwithstanding the incredible heroism from the Ukrainians.”
Even the current level of supply may be insufficient.
“Senior [Ukrainian] officials have told me that supplies of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons have slowed to a trickle and stocks are running low,” said Paul Grod, head of the Ukrainian World Congress, a non-governmental organisation. “This needs to be addressed as soon as possible — otherwise Ukrainian fighters will be confronting Russian tanks with just machine guns.”
HALPERIN SAYS: Just because Western media wants Putin to lose and Zelensky to win doesn’t mean the press should ignore realities when and if facts on the ground change.
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EASTERN TIME
9:30 AM THE PRESIDENT receives the President’s Daily Brief
Closed Press
11:00 AM THE PRESIDENT hosts a secure call with President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, Prime Minister Mario Draghi of Italy, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom to discuss their coordinated responses to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified attack on Ukraine
Oval Office
Closed Press
2:00 PM In-Town Pool Call Time
6:00 PM THE PRESIDENT joins Business Roundtable’s CEO Quarterly Meeting to discuss the United States’ response to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified war with Ukraine and the President’s plans to lower costs for working families, create good-paying union jobs, and tackle the climate crisis
Business Roundtable, Washington, DC
Briefing Schedule
2:30 PM Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki and Deputy National Security Advisor for Cyber and Emerging Technology Anne Neuberger
Wednesday, March 23, 2022
The President will travel to Brussels, Belgium.
Thursday, March 24, 2022
The President will attend an extraordinary NATO Summit to discuss ongoing deterrence and defense efforts in response to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified attack on Ukraine. The President will reaffirm our ironclad commitment to our NATO Allies and to defend every inch of NATO territory.
The President will attend a G7 meeting to further discuss with our Allies and partners the consequences we are imposing on Russia for its war of choice.
The President will join a scheduled European Council Summit to discuss our shared concerns about Ukraine, including transatlantic efforts to impose economic costs on Russia, provide humanitarian support to those affected by the violence, and address other challenges related to the conflict.
Friday, March 25, 2022
The President will travel to Warsaw, Poland.
Saturday, March 26, 2022
The President will hold a bilateral meeting with President Andrzej Duda of Poland. The President will discuss how the United States, alongside our Allies and partners, is responding to the humanitarian and human rights crisis that Russia’s unjustified and unprovoked war on Ukraine has created.
The President will return to Washington, DC.
HALPERIN SAYS: (1) War or peace – the influence of Business Roundtable will never cease; (2) The key to the Biden Europe trip is does he stay the course or announce something new.
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HALPERIN SAYS: “There are no plans” is not the same as “he will not go.”
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Two essential reads:
1. The Washington Post with a well-reported look at Joe Biden’s history with Ukraine.
2. The New York Times on the civilians who have chosen to remain in Kyiv:
The invasion has galvanized the population, fostering a unity that few had felt before; spawning enthusiasm for volunteering and solidarity for the men fighting, but also a stubborn refusal to be cowed by the invader….
“The Ukrainian people have been reborn,” said Oleg Sentsov, a filmmaker who was imprisoned in Russia for his opposition to the annexation of the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine in 2014. Mr. Sentsov said he evacuated his family to western Ukraine and joined the territorial defense within a day of the invasion, and he has already been serving in the suburbs of Kyiv.
“Of course the war is terrible,” he said, “and many people are dying but there is a feeling that our nation is being born and our connections to Russia are being cut.”
HALPERIN SAYS: Read ‘em both.
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The Wall Street Journal scoop, now confirmed by others:
The Biden administration has transferred a significant number of Patriot antimissile interceptors to Saudi Arabia within the past month, fulfilling Riyadh’s urgent request for a resupply amid sharp tensions in the relationship, senior U.S. officials said.
The transfers sought to ensure that Saudi Arabia is adequately supplied with the defensive munitions it needs to fend off drone and missile attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen, one of the officials said….
The decision to go ahead with the arms transfer was part of an effort by the Biden administration to rebuild its relationship with Riyadh. Among other things, the U.S. hopes Saudi Arabia will pump more oil to mitigate soaring crude prices, officials said. But providing Patriot interceptors hasn’t resolved all the strains in the relationship.
HALPERIN SAYS: (1) The Saudis still believe a lot more repair work needs to be done before ties to the U.S. are restored; (2) 2022 will be recorded as the year that the American defense contractor business had another BOOM.
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The Associated Press curtain raises:
The Senate Judiciary Committee is beginning historic confirmation hearings Monday for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, who would be the first Black woman on the Supreme Court.
Barring a significant misstep by the 51-year-old Jackson, a federal judge for the past nine years, Democrats who control the Senate by the slimmest of margins intend to wrap up her confirmation before Easter.
Jackson is expected to present an opening statement Monday afternoon, then answer questions from the committee’s 11 Democrats and 11 Republicans over the next two days. She will be introduced by Thomas B. Griffith, a retired judge for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, and Lisa M. Fairfax, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School.
HALPERIN SAYS: If the judge somehow performs poorly in her confirmation hearings, we could get closer to the point where the chances that a Democratic Senator votes against her confirmation are higher than the chances that she wins between 1 and 4 Republican votes. Which is to say: the odds of either are now (and will remain) loooooong.
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Two Biden offspring get Monday newspaper treatment:
1. The New York Post on the questions about Hunter Biden’s business dealings that relate to his father’s work that the White House (and Dominant Media) wants to continue to dodge.
2. The New York Times with their latest on the very complex chronology involving Ashley Biden’s diary and Project Veritas.
HALPERIN SAYS: Both of these narratives are complicated, and both speak to very big themes involving journalism, presidential politics, and Teaghlach Biden.